Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and the cut-off low entering the Tasman this weekend or early next week.

A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and as a result the long range E/SE swell is likely to be closer to 2ft than 3ft.

The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell window will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore winds.

Make the most of the swell spike on the weekend.