The Coral Sea has become inflamed with SE-ESE Tradewinds, enhanced by a trough off the CQ Coast and a developing low near New Caledonia. Through the weekend, short range ESE swell from the tradewind fetch will supply the dominant swell trains, especially in SEQLD.
The frontal progression responsible for the S swell pulses over the last couple of days is now on the New Zealand side of the Tasman, with a large high approaching Tasmania setting up a firm ridge along the coast.
The weekend will have plenty of swell and good winds, especially Saturday. Storms riding up a lobe of the long wave trough Wed/Thurs positioned favourably for WA swell production (and Indo) send plenty of moderate sized swell for the weekend.
Now that we’re on the backside of this swell event, the outlook is somewhat academic, continuing down Thursday, then down even more Friday.
Plenty of S swell continues through Fri with SW winds remaining fresh and gusty.
OK, before we get to the outlook, it’d be good to touch base on a few things regarding the current swell event. Mainly around expectations, and where they should be positioned.
Following that an active tradewind pattern in the Coral Sea supplies another round of E swell for the region, with a trough of low pressure expected to form off the Capricorn Coast and energise further the E/SE winds off the CQ coast.
We’re going to see multiple overlapping pulses of S swell over the coming days as fronts slingshot around the parent low on an active sea state, with the biggest surf coming with some dodgy winds as the high pressure ridge sets up. Following that an active tradewind pattern in the Coral Sea supplies another round of E swell.
A series of cold fronts with embedded troughs are now steaming into the Tasman Sea, anchored by a deep polar low which provided large swells for Victoria and New Zealand’s West Coast.
Weekend looks pretty good, with moderate storm activity in the Central Indian Ocean sending another moderate W/SW swell towards WA.
