Multiple swell sources on the long range charts

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th December)

Best Days: No great days due to tricky wind outlook (Mid North Coast has the best chance early Friday but a S'ly change will spoil the party). Long term looks good though.

Recap: Small leftovers E’ly swell early Tues, with early W’ly winds that swung to the northern quadrant mid morning. A new E’ly swell arrived late but size was biggest in the south (via slightly higher wave heights at the Crowdy Head buoy compared to Byron Bay). NW-NE winds have remained in place today ahead of a gusty S’ly change that’s tracking along the Northern NSW coast (into Coffs at 1:48pm, Evans Head at 6pm). We should see an arrival at the border of the coming hours. Yesterday’s late E’ly swell has eased steadily through the day and really only benefited exposed beaches in Northern NSW.

This week (Dec 18-19th)

Thursday looks pretty ordinary for the most part.

The southerly change currently advancing along the coast will weaken overnight, leaving us with light variable winds in most areas early morning ahead of a freshening NE breeze in the afternoon in the south, that’ll probably be more northerly in direction north of Ballina. 

Surf wise we’re only expecting a mix of small southerly swell trailing today’s change, and some small residual easterly swell.

Very late in the day we’ll see the arrival of yet another pulse of E’ly groundswell, generated by an intensification of the stationary E’ly fetch (late Tuesday) that’s been positioned off the West Coast of New Zealand’s North Island since the weekend.

The latest ASCAT satellite returns were impressive from this system, showing core wind speeds of 40kts - but unfortunately they are aimed towards the southern NSW coast (see image below). 

And in a double blow for Northern NSW/SE Qld surfers, this fetch also slipped southwards (not good for us) in addition to a counter-clockwise rotation of the fetch alignment (also not good for us), which furthers reduces the surf potential from what would have otherwise been an excellent swell producer, had it been aimed more towards the W/NW.

As such, we’re not looking at much swell energy north of (about) Coffs Harbour from this source, and what energy does arrive will probably peak overnight Thursday.

Furthermore, without the availability of offshore buoy data (and by ‘offshore’ I mean a couple of hundred kilometres east of the mainland, which would give five to eight hours notice of incoming east swells), it’s very hard to have confidence in the precise timing of the leading edge. Model guidance has it in late afternoon/early evening (around 6pm) but we need a few hours of elasticity on this (of which, wave heights rarely jump to their full potential within a few hours of the leading edge anyway).

As such Friday is your best chance to capitalise on this swell but you’ll have to work around the local winds. A more pronounced southerly change will work its way up the coast during the day - into the Mid North Coast early morning, and the North Coast through the afternoon, reaching SE Qld late in the day. Ahead of it, winds are likely to be W’ly so the beach breaks should have good options - so the key will be to find that window of opportunity before the change arrives. 

And size? I’m really not that confident on this event, but I think it’s reasonable to expect inconsistent 3ft+ sets at open beaches south of Coffs Harbour (where the southerly change will spoil conditions away from protected southern corners), 2ft+ from Coffs to about Byron and then 1-2ft north from Byron to the Sunny Coast.

And this size range is for the early session: smaller waves are expected through the day as we work off the backside of this pulse. 

Just to finish it off, an increase in bumpy short range south swell is likely through the afternoon at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (mainly in the south).

Keep your expectations low.

This weekend (Dec 20th - 21st)

Nothing of major interest this weekend. The models are holding a moderate ridge across the southern Qld coastline in the wake of Friday’s change, which suggests a small short range SE swell for the Gold, Sunshine and Far Northern NSW coasts both Saturday and Sunday. Although it probably won’t be enough for anything worthwhile at the semi-exposed points - so anticipate small bumpy waves at open beaches. 

We’ll also see some small leftover southerly swell (generated form the change itself) at south facing beaches in Northern NSW early Saturday, but it’ll fade through the day and will be almost gone by Sunday.

Otherwise, a small residual east swell should pad out most open beaches with a couple of feet of inconsistent, low quality surf.

As for the local winds, the ridge across southern Qld will influence the local airstream from the Sunny Coast down to about Ballina (moderate to fresh SE, possibly lighter SW early morning). The remaining Northern NSW coasts will see lighter winds with a similar directional trend (early SW, later SE). So on the whole not particularly flash, but certainly surfable if you’re keen for a weekend paddle.

Long term (Dec 22nd onwards)

Couple of things popping up on the long term model runs, which is encouraging.

Firstly, as mentioned on Monday we’ve got a broad trade belt developing north and north-east of New Zealand from this weekend onwards, signalling a return to small to moderate, long-lasting distant E’ly swell for the foreseeable future (beginning early-mid next week, that is).

A developing polar low well south of Tasmania late Friday/Saturday looks good on the synoptic charts, but as it’s a cut off system its swell generating potential needs to be curbed (for now). Current thinking is that we’ll get a fun shot of mid-range S’ly swell later Monday and into Tuesday, with very inconsistent 2ft sets showing up at exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW (but unlikely to influence anywhere else). 

Otherwise, we’ve got a complex troughy pattern setting up across a couple of regions of the Tasman Sea. Model guidance is pointing towards a modest SE fetch off the West Coast of New Zealand’s North Island that could supply some small SE swell through next week too. 

Additionally, a developing trough over the SE corner of the country early in the week may push off the coast, evolving into a small Tasman Low during Tuesday - which could give rise to a punchy SE swell for southern NSW through the middle of the week. At the moment there’s no suggestion that it’d influence our region but it’s worth keeping an eye on as it’s certainly a good indication of a nearby source of regional instability that could flourish throughout successive model runs, and could end up being be a source of new swell for Northern NSW (and maybe SE Qld) mid-late next week

This is all still along time away, but it’s fun to speculate on what might be as we work towards the Xmas period - especially as most of you will be on holidays, scouting for some great mid-week waves. I’ll update the specifics on Friday.

Comments

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 8:41am

Seen a few dodgy reports this morning..... All I know is something is in the water.....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 9:58am

you are correct SD.
The Ballina report was way, way off.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 10:03am

FR, a rival site had 1 to 2 foot at 6 seconds lol

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 10:07am

Yamba report is pretty close to the money.
Dreamy lefts this morning with the NW tending W wind opening them right up.

4/10? seriously?
You give barrelling headhigh lefts a fail mark?

That shows me either someone doesn't surf or they've got no fucking clue.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 1:50pm

Yep, SD, you were on the money with this one mate. Well done. And yeah saw the wave buoys this morning and read the reports and thought....here we go again.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 3:20pm

Mehhh. Wasn't totally on the money, mate..... But thanks anyway... This little low did finally produce some swell.... Better late than never...... ( wish I could type finally in italics lol)

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 4:40pm

Sheepio;)

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 5:16pm

Vapour Man!!!!! Well done champ!!! Wish I could get off the blasted things!!

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Friday, 19 Dec 2014 at 7:22pm

Yeah Sheepio

I actually love the banter with swell forecasts here on the SE QLD coast:)
You have some credit where credit is due, even 3/10 and dunnyweather are giving you heads ups :)
Classic stuff champ. Maybe its the NZ synoptics that are a key factor here....? Metvuv...?
Been following them alot lately and are different to SN's wams...! But it comes down to local knowledge and synoptic readings for years eh;)

As regards to Vapour Man, yeah its working for sure, I have had a ciggy or two in the 9 weeks and it tastes like shit and does not hit me with the taste and the nico buzz compared to my Aspire E Cig. I love it;)

Here is a good link with some varous facts compared to government shit that are not making Billions-------
http://www.ecigalternative.com/smoking-vs-vaping.htm

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 20 Dec 2014 at 10:45am

Sheepy ,Freeride......whats your xmas day call ?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 20 Dec 2014 at 1:52pm

Cheers, welly.... But whilst we're having a kumbaya lovefest, I'd have to give last tues/wed to donny and craig.... They were way closer to the mark... It sorta fell between Donny's call and craigs call.... But good to see you northerners got a few pulses from different sources... (You're all northerners to me - even the Scammander crew lol )
Udo... I'm still sticking with FR's early call..... I'll have a bit of a sus and check out Bens latest report..... Maybe post something there.....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 20 Dec 2014 at 7:40pm

setup looks great for a sustained tradewind swell event.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 8:00am

Yep. Shame about the devil winds and cold water upwelling but.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 8:31am

Cold water?????? ;) ..... In the spirit of croc Dundee - That aint cold water..... Now this is cold water lol....

Last week you asked me what I considered to be a large wave... I said once it's over 6 foot, I consider it to be large, with a scale going from large to ridiculous, covering surf up to 40 feet...
Now don, what temp do you consider to be "cold"......

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 12:53pm

You think there is cold water coming for the East coast Don ?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 7:07pm

SD. MF below has hit my def of cold water.

Blowin upwelling from the N'lys post Xmas will bring with it cold water.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 1:34pm

I'm guessing if Don has to put on a wetsuit it will be cold water. I had to put on a 4'3 yesterday, it was 14 in the water and that's cold.

Sheepy looks good for Christmas NY North East Coast NZ but at this stage NE wind too. What do you think?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 2:49pm

Dunno, Mick... looks a bit "mehh" to me at this stage.... Will keep an eye on it... A couple of interesting systems below Tassie 27th onwards.... Maybe west coast North island??

Check 0700 sat 27th, fetch sw of Tassie...... And same area, 0700 mon 29th..
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=swp&noofdays=7

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 4:36pm

In NZ Mick ? You get around....

But... 14 degree at Christmas in the North Island ? If that's the case it's even colder than I thought.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 6:14pm

That's temperature in Dunedin...Mmm very cold jeeps the crowds down though

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 6:48pm

Are you a kiwi ? You spend a bit of time over there . 14 degrees.....fuck that.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Sunday, 21 Dec 2014 at 8:16pm

Yep Queenstown originally. Learnt to surf Dunedin. When we went to the beach would ring around desperate to find people to surf with. Lowered the odds. Times have changed.

Where did you blowin from?

Sleepy it looks like a terrible run for west coast but if something comes up from the SW will shoot over. There's a bunch of rarely surfed waves from Dargaville right through to Shippies largely unaccessable.

Ps taking over this qld thread haha.

I

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 22 Dec 2014 at 9:18am

lol, mick..... Mate the lack of consistent surf in my little corner is doing my head in.... Dropping in to swellnet threads is just a therapy to stop me from going on a rampage..... ;)