A few reasonable options for November

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th November)

Best Days: Saturday: Northern NSW: early light winds and a new building south swell at south facing beaches. SE Qld: peaky E/SE swell with early light winds, holding thru' Sunday

Recap: Small, low quality swells at most locations with average conditions.

This weekend (Nov 29-30)

No major changes to the weekend forecast, just a slight downgrade in the size department across SE Qld.

We’re looking at a peaky E/SE swell in the 2-3ft range both days however the upper end of this size range will be mainly found across open Sunny Coast beaches, with slightly smaller surf on the Gold Coast, and then smaller again with increasing southerly latitude.

Early light winds will tend moderate E/SE during the day so surf early for the best waves. 

On the Northern NSW coast, this otherwise small and uninspiring E/SE swell will be overshadowed by a stronger but very inconsistent S/SE swell that’s pushing up the southern NSW coast this afternoon.

Set waves will be very inconsistent but south swell magnets should pick up a few 2-3ft+ sets throughout Saturday. Early light variable winds will freshen from the NE during the day, so get in shortly after dawn for the best conditions (the swell will hang all day though, so protected northern corners should have options through the afternoon). Easing swells are then expected through Sunday

Next week (Dec 1st-5th)

First up: we’ve got another week of northerly winds ahead, so make sure you’re well prepared with a high volume board and a bucket of grommet-esque enthusiasm.

As for surf prospects, a deep low traversing the Southern Ocean yesterday has generated a small, long period south swell that’s due to push into the Northern NSW coast overnight Sunday, ahead of a second, better pulse of swell on Monday. Again, this swell will only favour exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (we won’t see anything in SE Qld) and set waves will be extremely inconsistent, perhaps 2-3ft+ if we’re lucky but the long breaks may be off-putting. This swell will then ease slowly through Tuesday.

Otherwise, the only other sources of swell for the week will be a small and uninteresting NE windswell (only benefiting the Mid North Coast) and some small, average trade swell from a stationary ridge south of New Caledonia. At this stage wave heights should hover in and around the 2ft mark, and there should be  a few brief windows of opportunity across SE Qld as local winds will be lighter here than in Northern NSW, owing to a weaker pressure gradient. With some luck we’ll see a few early hours of N/NW winds too.

Elsewhere, a complex trough off the southern NSW coast early next week is proving to be quite an erratic system to forecast so the outlook for this swell window during the middle of next week has low confidence. Most model guidance hasn’t shown much interest in the possibility of a noteworthy swell generating system (as I mentioned in Wednesday’s notes) so I’m keeping my expectations very low for a notable swell event now. However we’ll revise this on Monday as major changes can’t be ruled out for this time period just yet.

Into the longer term period, there are a few systems popping up in the longer term model runs but right now - with such a flukey, low quality outlook for earlier in the week - there’s no point speculating about anything beyond this. Suffice to say that there’s a lot of potential for good surf in the longer term; we’ll just need to wait a few more days to firm up the specifics. More on this on Monday.

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 9:50am

Jeez it's funny some of the feedback we receive on occasion:

"Any chance of changing your forecaster? Quite depressing it's good fun surf on the sunny coast today from what I'm looking at. We have been waiting a long time for the points to light up he doesn't know what he is talking about."

E/SE winds were gusting 25kts overnight, and are still moderate+ this morning (was 14kts gusting 19kts at 6am). The surf looks very ordinary on the Moffats cam, and tiny at Noosa (see below) so I'm not quite sure what constitutes the points "lighting up".

So, apparently I wasn't enthusiastic enough about the surf outlook for SE Qld today (although as per the notes above, I wasn't overly negative).

Just can't please some people!

tobym's picture
tobym's picture
tobym Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 11:32am

Thats ludicrous,not even remotely 'good' or' fun 'on the points or anywhere up this way for that matter.

rees0's picture
rees0's picture
rees0 Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 11:44am

Good day for cutting the grass and doing some cashies. Uninspiring was the word you used and i'd say that pretty much sums it up round these parts.

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 12:56pm

I reckon, if anything, you're a bit optimistic sometimes Ben. I understand your position though, with the run that SEQ has had you have to talk about something. I sooo wanted this morning to be good enough to get in, but alas....

This run of pus is really getting to me

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 1:00pm

Absolutely - I happily accept that I'm a more optimistic kinda guy. But I think that's somewhat important in the world of surf forecasting - and I've alway remembered something Andy Inkster told me when I was a grommet: no matter what the surf's like, it's always better in the water than in the office. 

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 11:42am

Redemption!

Yesterday was a bucket load of fun.

Faith restored.... sanity returning

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 6:03pm

Or.... "A bad day's surfing beats a good day's workn'...."
Next weekend looks interesting... More so for down here and the southern/central NSW coasts..... As the blind man says, "we'll see"....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 29 Nov 2014 at 8:28pm

I'm struggling to see any potential for good surf in the medium/longer term; just more of the same unstable troughy pattern.
The dominant highs are still in the wrong position for any decent surf from the E.
Until that changes we will be relying on flukey S swells.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 30 Nov 2014 at 4:16pm

Free ride, in a purely meteorological sense, next weekend looks like a doozy...... Several cells may develop.... May even get some "mingy" trade swell from the high near NZ and off the back of one of the lows..... The whole eastern region looks very unstable from Friday thru Monday....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 10:52am

Maybe, but I don;t see any potential for good surf to develop, which was the prospect Ben raised and the subject at hand here.

Another troughy/low feature sliding off the SE of Aus and continuing SE into the Tasman.

Another weak high moving too far north, with a width-attenuated, duration limited fetch too far away to be much good for anything other than a bit of weak background swell that will probably be swallowed in the noise of continuing prevailing northerlies.

The first thing that changed during August amazing surf pattern was strong highs moving at more southern latitudes. Thats always the base pattern for sustained surf from the E for this region. Anything that then forms has a solid base to work with. And that, as we all know now led to a ten day swell event culminating in the best Kirra for ten years.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 11:32am

"I don;t see any potential for good surf to develop"............. There's quite a lot of space between "good surf" and "the best Kirra for ten years"....... 3 to 4 foot backbeach with a norwester is good surf..... A 10 day swell at kirra is all time surf.....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 11:45am

To repeat, I don't see any potential for good surf to develop.

I used the Kirra example to point to a pattern which brings good surf as a minimum.,

Fuck you can be a pedantic bastard sometimes Dawg.

Do you see good surf developing? If so, from where.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 12:12pm

Keep ya pants on Mr "it aint 3/10 at Ballina boy".... Now that's pedantic...... If you are in a shitty mood today, don't take it out on me, bro.... As I said above, if you'd like to re read..... I do see the chance for potential good surf..... But I couldn't be fucked going through it with you.... again.....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 12:21pm

"in a purely meteorological sense, next weekend looks like a doozy...... Several cells may develop.... May even get some "mingy" trade swell from the high near NZ and off the back of one of the lows..... The whole eastern region looks very unstable from Friday thru Monday...."

Is that it?
Thats a very, very big maybe. Standard Spring unstable troughiness.
OK, let the record show you think that has a good chance of producing good surf and I don't.

I hope your right.

and you are right, apologies for the disrespectful tone.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 1:20pm

This time of year can often have minimal rain... Northerlies.... The odd thunderstorm up in sunny coast region.. 1 foot wind junk.... Dry inland lows at an average of about 1008 to 1010hpa..... Between now and wed' next week, we will have several inland systems over NSW at around 1002 -1004hpa, full of moisture....... It gives the east coast a fighting chance.... Sorry for being an optimist.....

At the same time, a high is parked out north of nz, with a slight squeeze against some tropical muck..... A meandering ene swell is on the cards for Byron..... Rain and storms causing glass offs..... 3 foot, maybe 4......

Back to NSW lows...... A break off low may form around Friday, off Eden..... and send an average 3 foot se swell from the gong to Coffs....

Potential for another break off low to form off Newcastle on Sunday.....

Inland NSW low to re establish itself next week.... Ne region of low stacked with moisture...... Sw flank copping cold air from a fetch west of a low near Tassie......

These are all scenarios..... Scenarios only existing thanks to "moist" throughs over NSW.. So, I think there is more potential in the current situation than there would be in a typical early summer heat wave before "the wet" has arrived.....

Allgood, FR..... ;)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 1:24pm

OK, thanks for the more expansive breakdown.

I don't think that high near the North Island will do much more than produce a lazy, background 2ft, maybe.
And I'm extremely dubious that any of those potential cut-off lows forming from the inland troughiness will send any swell this way due to slipping away to the SE too quickly.

so we'll see how it pans out.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 2:26pm

I'm a big fan of the slingshot effect from the NW quadrant of those semi-stationary high pressure systems Steve. Now if only I could find a backbeach with good banks!!! ;)

blow-in-9999's picture
blow-in-9999's picture
blow-in-9999 Monday, 1 Dec 2014 at 11:29pm

Some of the northern SC spots have been okay.

tobym's picture
tobym's picture
tobym Sunday, 30 Nov 2014 at 9:23am

Yeah and really weak highs too.How long since we,ve had a good strong SE push through.I mean 25 /30kts for a couple of days?i deplore these spring conditions!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 30 Nov 2014 at 6:15pm

The end if this week/weekend is looking very interesting weather/rain/storm wise. Perhaps the last week or so and this coming week is a real change in the ENSO pattern?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 30 Nov 2014 at 6:20pm

Yeah...... After all indicators were pointing to El Nino, it looks very La nina, doesn't it........ Time will tell....

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 2 Dec 2014 at 1:54am

That photo of Noosa looks good. Especially loving the idea of being twelfth in line for a ankle high beast on the inside. Yew.