Good waves in store for next week

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 7th November)

Best Days: Sun: small peaky waves across exposed beaches, early whilst winds are light. Tues/Wed/Thurs: fun east swell with good waves across the semi-exposed points under a S'ly breeze.

Recap: Small waves for the last few days with northerly winds Thursday preceding a shallow southerly change this morning (quite a few hours ahead of schedule). Certainly nothing to get excited about.

This weekend (Nov 8-9)

A few more lil’ tweaks to the weekend forecast. Wednesday’s model guidance had a ridge building across the Qld coast this afternoon, which was expected to whip a minor local SE swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. The latest data has slightly stalled and slowed the development of the ridge, and also weakened it a touch, which decreases its swell potential.

However at the same time the models have held a trough across the central Tasman Sea today, with 15-20kts of southerly winds aimed parallel to the Northern NSW coast. We’ll see some small side band energy filter into south swell magnets across Northern NSW (not much, just a foot or two) and conditions should be reasonable with early light winds tending SE in most areas during Saturday

Concurrently, a second ridge out in the central/northern Tasman Sea during yesterday and today has/is generating a small E’ly swell due to build on Saturday afternoon (mainly aimed at SE Qld and Far Northern NSW) before holding through Sunday. We won’t see a great deal of size - perhaps a few stray 2ft+ sets at exposed beaches - but winds will be light and variable early ahead of a NE sea breeze. 

So in short, not really much to get excited about but there’ll be some small peaky waves on offer across exposed beachies on Sunday morning if you’re keen for a paddle.

Long term (Nov 10-14)

We’ve got a couple of sources of new swell for next week. But first up, Monday is looking small and average with a peaky mix of small, low quality swells and a freshening northerly airstream preceding a S'ly change due sometime Tuesday.

Probably our most interesting swell window at the moment is out to the east, where a developing trough/low over the weekend (north of New Zealand) has been improved in the latest model runs - it’s now expected to sit in position for a good 48 hours, which greatly improves its swell generating potential.

It’s not a classic synoptic chart by any means however we should see new easterly swell pushing through on Tuesday, reaching a peak on Wednesday and even holding through Thursday morning before easing in size. Wave heights should reach somewhere between 3ft and very occasionally 4ft at the height of the event (sometime Wednesday afternoon), however we’ll see smaller surf south of about Yamba from this source. Set waves will however be very inconsistent due to the large travel distance between the swell source and the mainland.

The good news is that conditions are looking pretty good for the semi-exposed points later Tuesday and Wednesday (about the same time the swell is expedcted to peak), thanks to a southerly change which will dominate the region for a few days (timing on the change not yet confident but should be early Tuesday in Northern NSW and maybe the afternoon in SE Qld).

Apart from a few hours in the wake of the actual change, winds shouldn't be terribly strong in general and we may even see a brief period of early SW winds on Wednesday (ahead of a S/SE tendency in the afternoon). By Thursday we’re likely to be back to a northerly regime - especially across Northern NSW - so make the most of what’s in front of you earlier in the week.

Additionally, a series of strong fronts entering the southern Tasman Sea on Monday - associated with the coastal change - will generate a solid south swell for exposed parts of the Northern NSW coast. Furthermore, this frontal passage will occupy our southern swell window for a few days and should therefore supply strong swell through until Thursday or maybe even Friday morning.

We’re looking at set waves reaching 4-5ft+ at south friendly beaches at the height of this swell (probably late Wednesday or early Thursday), and fortunately due to the northern and eastern extent of the fetch we’ll see some energy pushing north of Byron Bay - possibly a couple of feet across the semi-exposed points in SE Qld. This should tie in nicely with the (bigger) pre-existing east swell to create a reasonable degree of consistency in the lineup, albeit mainly with small waves.

Wave heights will then trend downwards from both sources on Friday with northerly winds enveloping the coast. A secondary pulse of even longer range east swell - originating from a secondary phase of the same low responsible for the Tues/Wed/Thurs swell - may possibly arrive on Friday, but at this stage I don’t think there’l be a lot of size or consistency in it. So certainly aim to surf earlier in the week than later!

Long term (Nov 15 onwards)

Models are leaning towards a reasonably strong cold front across the SE corner of the country sometime around next weekend. If this happens we can look forward to another punchy round of south swell across the southern NSW coast early in the following week. More on this in Monday’s update.

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 7 Nov 2014 at 8:30pm

Ben, your forecast above for the tradewind swell this weekend and the longer range E'ly swell mid next week is considerably larger than your WAM model output forecasts. Are you basing your forecast above on other than GFS?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 7 Nov 2014 at 8:52pm

The weekend prediction is only a smidge higher than our automated forecast (2ft+ vs 1-2ft), however the Tues/Wed/Thus east swell is is a little bit bigger, 3ft+ vs 2ft). In any case I'm just basing it on 10m wind data, and gut feel that the model is under calling  things.

 

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Friday, 7 Nov 2014 at 10:43pm

Even BOM are on board Don, get with the times :P

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 8 Nov 2014 at 2:51pm

Pussys....... ;)

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 7:59am

I hope everyone enjoyed the Yandina market yesterday...... ;)..... Jokes aside, if next weekends predicted ecl (on some charts) comes off, you'd have to say as far as spring goes, 2014 hasn't been too bad for east coast Oz....... Not calling this one yet.... Note 0700, 16/11/14
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=swp&noofdays=7

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Tuesday, 11 Nov 2014 at 11:35am

thanks for that mate, i bookmarked site. water here warm, just like where you are, boardies and let the sun dry you. had good body bash kirra, only small but fun, bank is good.

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 9:19am

ohh boy,please let that be true

bluem00n's picture
bluem00n's picture
bluem00n Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 9:38am

Hey SD, Good call in the week on the NE from the CAL system. There was a fun 2+ft NE swell feeding the mid-sunny coast first up on Sunday.. Along with the 2ft ESE Ben predicted, minimal offshore breeze and glassy conditions, it made it a really enjoyable morning for this travelling weekender.. Cheers Guys..

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 9:48am

Good feedback, thanks BM. But.. NE swell direction? That's a little strange. The nearby buoys recorded mainly E'ly on Sunday, with Brisbane trending E/SE (Mooloolaba buoy went offline at midnight Sat... argh!).

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 10:42am

Byron buoy looked like it went spazzo yesterday...... Blue moon , I heard one little spot just north of Coolum was real fun...... A 5 - 10 minute walk, but a swell magnet on the sunny coast...... Clives was fun too, but a bit crowded....

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 11:27am

Mate at the Alley said it was cooking yesterday up there. Heading up tomorrow, yes boardies!!!!

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 1:13pm

Mick, wear a thin springy or the locals will know you're a blow in.... 19' mornings with 23' water is chilly for a banana bender ... hahahaha.......

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 1:03pm

The map looks impressive alright but the sand on the beaches around here is just starting to look good again so its the last thing we need now coming on summer.

bluem00n's picture
bluem00n's picture
bluem00n Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 2:24pm

Ben, I'm the first to admit I have no clue how the swell direction at the shoreline is caused, I accept it could have been an E swell refracting - the lines seemed to remain constant across the shoreline - all I know is there were two distinct swells hitting the stretch I was on and they were creating left & rights respectively on the bank I managed to chance upon.. happy days..

bluem00n's picture
bluem00n's picture
bluem00n Monday, 10 Nov 2014 at 2:45pm

Hey SD, never understood why clives gets crowded.. esp. when there's a fair few other spots in close proximity.. maybe there's safety in numbers!

kerry1's picture
kerry1's picture
kerry1 Tuesday, 11 Nov 2014 at 7:04pm

I wont even bother unless it is 5ft and overhead with West winds.