Small sources of swell for some time

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd June)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: small peaky waves at open beaches in Northern NSW early (don't expect much in SE Qld). Sun: small E'ly swell for the Sunny Coast, maybe the Gold Coast.

Recap: Steady SE and S’ly swell across the North Coast Tuesday, with generally OK conditions. Smaller in SE Qld. A new S/SE swell built across the North Coast this morning (only small in SE Qld) with similar conditions.

This week (July 24-25)

Today’s S/SE swell should hold through into Thursday morning but is expected to trend downwards during the day. Set waves should push the 2-3ft range at open south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but as per the last few days it’ll be smaller north of the border in SE Qld, with only tiny surf on offer away from the regional swell magnets.

Conditions should be good early with light variable winds; they’ll tend northerly throughout the day pushing the best waves to northern corners in the afternoon.

Friday doesn’t look much chop at this stage. We’ll have a freshening N’ly breeze that’ll limit conditions away from protected northern corners, and a small combo of swells will produce just-rideable waves for keen surfers. NE facing beaches in Northern NSW may see a small local north-east windswell (of very low quality) and there’ll also be a small underlying S’ly groundswell in the mix. 

Unfortunately ASCAT data didn’t show much spatial coverage of the polar low responsible for this incoming south swell (well south of Tasmania Tuesday) however winds were recorded in the 40kt range. As such I’m lowering my expectations to a couple of stray 1-2ft+ sets at the regional swell magnets, with very long breaks between 'em. Keep your expectations low.

This weekend (July 26-27)

Nothing great is expected this weekend surf-wise.

Let’s start with SE Qld: aside from the fact that it won’t pick up these southerly swells very well, the only new source of energy is a minor increase in E’ly swell on Sunday, generated by a brief dip in the trades across the southern Coral Sea on Friday and Saturday. The Sunshine Coast will pick up the most size from this source (say, an occasional 2ft set) but it’ll be a little smaller on the Gold Coast, and even smaller thereafter with increasing southerly latitude.

Elsewhere, the Northern NSW Coast will pick up small residual southerly swell all weekend but nothing to write home about. Winds will initially freshen from the north early Saturday before tending westerly then variable into the afternoon as a trough crosses the coast and into the Tasman Sea (note: N’ly winds may persist all day Saturday in SE Qld, with a resulting small local windswell but obviously poor local conditions).

Fresh SW winds are expected to develop in the wake of the trough into Sunday as it tracks further east, and this may kick up a small S’ly swell for exposed south facing beaches by the afternoon - but at this stage the models are quite divergent, and the primary swell source (if one eventuates) will probably be offshore from the South Coast - meaning we may not see an appreciable increase until Monday. Either way it'll hardly be worth a road trip. Let’s take a closer look in Friday’s notes.

Longer term (July 28 onwards)

No major changes for the long term forecast. An amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough SW of West Oz will slowly move below the continent over the coming week (generating a lengthy round of large windy waves for the southern states), but its position will essentially steer all major swell generating activity away from the East Coast’s southern swell window. 

This suggests an extended period of small conditions for the region, interspersed by short lived events from flukey parts of our swell window.

Current thinking is that a vigorous frontal passage across Bass Strait mid-next week will spawn a short range south swell around Thursday or Friday, with followup south swells of a similar nature the following weekend - but it’s still very early days. I’ll take a closer look on Friday.

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 23 Jul 2014 at 7:53pm

Boing!!! That's the sound of a spring sprung!!!

upnorth's picture
upnorth's picture
upnorth Wednesday, 23 Jul 2014 at 8:19pm

So no waves in the summer, average autumn, a few littluns in the winter and I take it from your comment not much in spring. So when does the sunny coast actually get consistent waves?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 23 Jul 2014 at 8:29pm

late summer/autumn wasn't too bad, was it, upnorth? Lusi comes to mind... And quite a few long distant east swells..... Reformed Ita.... More size north of the airport.... Always has been due to many factors.... As for this blast of northerlies coming, don't let it fool you.... Just the leading edge of a winter low that is currently near Adelaide.... It'll move over inland NSW/Vic, and of course, northerlies will funnel down into it from Qld... The low will move off the east coast but wont amount to much.. A new high will dominate, and SE qld will be back to icy cold nights and continued winter flatness.... Thanks to a curse ;) Enjoy, upnorth

WarHawk's picture
WarHawk's picture
WarHawk Wednesday, 23 Jul 2014 at 9:07pm

I have to agree with upnorth. Sunshine coast in the last 9-10 months has on average hit 3 foot once every 2 weeks? And not usually with favourable winds until winter came, and then it went dead flat. Even less at the southern end. Maybe 2-3 6 foot swells which are only quality for 1-2 days. If you were unlucky enough to be working or busy on these day you have probably had 3 "good" sessions since the beginning of last summer.

upnorth's picture
upnorth's picture
upnorth Thursday, 24 Jul 2014 at 4:38pm

Yeah it wasn't too bad sheepdog and fun for me as I hadn't surfed cyclone swell before but it's all over pretty quick and of course when it's on everyone is out. I've found that the best sessions I've had have come on days when not much is forecast so must be a bit of local variation. Certainly more happening north and I love a bay but in terms of just knowing there is likely to be swell at the weekend, I don't find that the case here, even comparing it to adelaide where there is usually something half decent on the south coast. Also when there is swell it's often pretty straight looking, maybe I just need to improve my skills. Been good fun getting the bigger board out more often though, find I ride it differently after not using it for a while, looks like it'll be getting wet again this weekend.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 25 Jul 2014 at 12:06pm

Getting wet again this weekend up the SC? Gee, you must be desperate.....1-2ft weak, peaky E/NE windswell?

upnorth's picture
upnorth's picture
upnorth Friday, 25 Jul 2014 at 3:51pm

Not great is it, like I was saying though usually find local conditions vary from forecast so even if it's an extra .5 - 1ft might be passable first thing sat with little N breeze. But yeah, pretty keen so I'll go anyway unless its absolute garbage which is possible.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 25 Jul 2014 at 5:48pm

Nudey bay, upnorth.... Nudey bay.... If there aint no surf, you can always get back to nature lol....
Anyway, August 3rd onwards looks promising..... Might have a word to huey... You've suffered long enough ;)

tobym's picture
tobym's picture
tobym Friday, 25 Jul 2014 at 6:44pm

It's been alright,it's been alright,not just Me but a lot of locals saying We;ve had a good run last few months.Keep Your expectations low.If it's all to depressing drive south for 4 hrs and harass the locals down there.

upnorth's picture
upnorth's picture
upnorth Friday, 25 Jul 2014 at 8:05pm

You mean there's surf up there as well sheepdog? haha yeah takes all sorts, got a couple of weeks off start of August so that would be perfect

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Saturday, 26 Jul 2014 at 12:51pm

Meanwhile, down south in Vicco,back to back swells line up,it's been offshore since April pretty much,crowds have thinned,yet as I struggle in the carpark with a still wet hooded 6mil and booties,and head off out to another session on the reefs,I dream of Noosa