Plenty of options this weekend, next week looking active too

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Nice weekend of waves across both coasts, best on the Mid Sat and Victor on Sun
  • Low point Monday, small and clean at Victor
  • Solid new swell down south Tues but with onshore winds
  • Easing slowly for the rest of the week with winds becoming light/var
  • Fun small waves on the Mid Tues/Wed, maybe Thurs if we're lucky
  • Reinforcing swell at Victor Fri/Sat, holding through the weekend
  • More swell for the following week


Small clean surf at Victor on Thurs (tiny on the Mid) has become bumpy today with an onshore breeze. A new W/SW swell is now starting to show on the Mid (see below), with promising wave buoy data off Kangaroo Island for a little more size over the next few hours.

Small new groundswell lines on the Mid this arvo (around 3pm)

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

No real change to the weekend forecast.

We’re just starting to see the first signs of new W/SW swell and this should push in strongly overnight, providing a full day of waves along the Mid Coast Saturday, before easing slowly into Sunday. 

Surf size should manage 2-3ft sets on Saturday, and I’m still hopeful for a few bigger bombs at the reef break swell magnets on the more favourable parts of the tide. Expect much less consistent surf up to 2ft on Sunday. Both days will be clean with SE tending E’ly winds Saturday, more E/NE on Sunday.

Down south, the initial dominant W/SW swell direction will restrict wave heights at sheltered spots, and there is a risk for an E/SE breeze at times on Saturday (though we should see early light E/NE thru’ NE winds). Size should build to 3-4ft across the Middleton stretch with much bigger surf at exposed spots.

Sunday is a better choice down south as the surf steadily eases from 3ft at Middleton under a light NE breeze. 

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Surf size will bottom out on Monday morning and winds will remain light, so expect small grovelly leftovers on the Mid and better (though still small) waves at Victor. 

A strong conveyor belt of polar fronts and low presently forming near Heard Island will strengthen over the weekend, and their first groundswell of note will push through the region later Monday, building strongly by Tuesday morning before fluctuating in strength for much of the following week.

Tuesday’s initial increase should push 4-5ft along the South Coast (occ 6ft sets at the regional swell magnets) however it’ll be accompanied by a moderate southerlies in the wake of the first front.

The rest of the week should see much better conditions with light onshore tending variable winds and gradually abating surf from 3-5ft across the Middleton stretch. A reinforcing pulse of S/SW swell from another polar low is then expected late Friday or Saturday, which should keep the region flush with plenty of good waves through the following weekend.

On the Mid, we’ll see some good swell filter through Investigator Strait, though the storm track is quite a fair way to the south which lowers my confidence for any major size. However, the overlapping frontal systems will create a long-lived swell source and this may override some of the negatives associated with the large travel distance. 

So, let’s peg size around the 2ft mark - maybe a few bigger waves on Tues - slowly easing from Wednesday onwards. Otherwise, next Fri/Sat’s renewal of energy will probably be too south to favour the Mid.

Long term suggests strong pre-winter fronts will maintain strength through the entire swell window into the following week too, which suggests the pattern should remain active.

Have a great weekend!


BugGuts's picture
BugGuts's picture
BugGuts Friday, 12 May 2023 at 5:00pm

Cheers Ben, glad to see some action on the Mid, and not having to spend hours in the car tomorrow heading south!

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Friday, 12 May 2023 at 5:08pm

Jeez, triggs looks CS worthy!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 12:42pm

Looks like some sad news coming from out West after a shark attack. Let's hope for the best.

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 12:59pm

shiit.. shallow stuff at walkers rock, maybe he was out spearfishing? idyllic spot but hella isolated - hope they got a phone signal and help in time.. any news?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 1:13pm

Looks super fun on the Mid.

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 1:21pm

super fun indeed! pretty crowded since the morning.. is that a sea mist at triggs or the camera haze tiff was talking about?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 1:35pm

I think the seal on the cam may have a leak.. will have to be checked

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 1:49pm

bugger : /