Windy, poor end to the week, better from Sunday
South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday June 16th)
Best Days: South Coast tomorrow morning, Mid Coast Saturday morning, South Coast Sunday through Wednesday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Mid-period W'ly swell for this afternoon, easing tomorrow, mixed in with a smaller SW groundswell. Mod-fresh W/SW winds (W/NW early around Victor)
- Mod-large SW groundswell Fri but with strong S/SW winds, easing Sat with moderate-fresh S winds (S/SE early on the Mid)
- Reinforcing SW groundswell Sun PM with N/NE tending variable winds, easing slowly Mon with similar winds, smaller Tue with N/NE tending E/NE winds
Tiny bumpy waves on the Mid Coast yesterday, clean down South but only suitable for bigger boards across the Middleton stretch. This morning we've got an inconsistent new SW groundswell with 2-3ft sets stretching across Middleton and choppy 2ft+ surf on the Mid Coast.
A new W'ly swell should provide more size on the Mid to 2-3ft this afternoon but with those poor winds.
This week and weekend (Jun 17 - 20)
Today's mix of inconsistent SW groundswell and building W'ly swell will start to ease from tomorrow, with the W'ly energy being the most dominant on the Mid Coast with easing sets from 2-3ft, while Middleton looks to see the groundswell easing from 2-3ft.
Winds look dicey, with an early W/NW breeze around Victor, shifting W/SW mid-morning. The Mid Coast will be bumpy with moderate to fresh W/SW winds.
These onshore winds will be linked to a weak front pushing up into the Bight, spawning into a mid-latitude low, bringing strengthening S/SW winds into Friday as our new, moderate-large SW groundswell fills in.
The front will actually break away from the polar low linked to the groundswell, with this low generating a great fetch of storm-force W/SW winds east of Heard Island (south-west of Western Australia).
The swell should arrive overnight and peak late morning/into the afternoon Friday with 4-6ft waves across the Middleton stretch and 1-2ft on the Mid Coast. Some local windswell from the strengthening S/SW winds should produce surf more towards 2ft on the Mid Coast but choppy with those winds.
Unfortunately the low will stall in the Tasman Sea a little longer than forecast on Monday, maintaining moderate to fresh S'ly winds across the South Coast Saturday morning, easing a touch through the day. The South Coast looks to ease back from the 4ft range across Middleton with easing 1-1.5ft waves on the Mid along with a morning S/SE breeze.
Sunday onwards looks much better for the South Coast with winds tending variable and tending more N/NE through the morning, giving into light sea breezes, if not variable.
We should see a fun, reinforcing SW groundswell arriving during the day, peaking into the afternoon ahead of a secondary pulse Monday morning.
These will be generated by a strong polar low forming east of the Heard Island region this afternoon, generating a patchy though strong fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW-W winds.
Following this, persistent gale to severe-gale W/NW-NW winds trailing the low should keep similar sized waves hitting the coast Monday morning.
Size wise, the South Coast should build back to 3-4ft across Middleton Sunday afternoon, then easing from 3ft+ Monday morning, with the Mid Coast lucky to be 1-1.5ft on the favourable parts of the tide.
Morning N/NE winds are due Monday, variable into the afternoon, similar Tuesday but more E/NE into the afternoon as the swell becomes smaller.
Longer term the outlook remains void of any major Southern Ocean frontal activity with mid-latitude lows and storms due to persist into the end of the month. This looks to bring favourable winds from the northern quadrant but no major size. More on this Friday.