Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 1st May)

This week through next (May 2 - 9)

A small increase in mid-period SW swell should have been seen across the region later yesterday and into this morning, with a slightly better and bigger increase due later Friday but more so Saturday.

The source of this swell was a broad but relatively weak and very distant low that formed south of South Africa late last week.

Of greater significance is the large S/SW groundswell due into next week across the Indonesian archipelago, with the polar low linked to it currently starting to project north-east from the Heard Island region.

A great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds will push ideally towards Eastern Indonesia today, weakening slightly while expanding through tomorrow and pushing closer towards Western Australia.

We can expect a large, consistent long-period groundswell from this source, arriving later Monday but peaking Tuesday to 10ft across exposed breaks, with the swell coming in a bit more south and a touch smaller across the Mentawais, also peaking later Tuesday/overnight.

The easing trend will be slowed by weaker, subsequent frontal systems pushing up on the tail of the original system, though size wise it won’t be above what's expected at the peak of the first swell.

We’re also due to see the long-range energy from the initial stages of the polar storm arriving Thursday, halting the easing trend a little before dropping more noticeably from Friday.

Longer term the outlook is much slower with nothing of significance due into the middle of the month, more on this next update.

Looking at the local winds, and variable breezes for today and tomorrow will start to freshen from the E/SE-SE over the weekend, stronger through next week with each morning seeing more variable, local land breezes.

In the Mentawais the winds look variable for the period opening up plenty of opportunities.

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Maldives:

Easing levels of S/SE trade-swell are being seen across the region, though the southern atolls should see some new S/SW energy in the water today, generated by the low south of South Africa last week.

The size should hold into tomorrow thanks to a similar size, reinforcing S/SW groundswell arriving with easing surf due into the weekend, bottoming out Monday.

Looking at the S/SE trade-swell due next week and the source of SE trades setting up south of Indonesia looks a little weaker and smaller. It’s due to arrive Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday before easing off slowly through next week.

Otherwise the S/SE groundswell from the strong polar low projecting towards Western Australia should be in the water Tuesday, peaking later and then easing slowly Wednesday.

Local winds still look to freshen a little from the S/SE into tomorrow afternoon and more so Saturday, becoming more variable Sunday. Freshening W’ly winds are then likely across northern and central locations through next week, possibly reaching southern locations and being more SW.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small to moderate sized, inconsistent SW swell for later tomorrow/Saturday morning to 4-5ft across exposed breaks.

Large, consistent S/SW groundswell building later Monday, peaking Tuesday in the 10ft range across exposed breaks.

Slowly easing size for the rest of next week, slowed by a long-range, inconsistent SW groundswell Thursday to 6ft+.

Variable winds today and tomorrow, slowly freshening from the E/SE-SE on the weekend, stronger E/SE next week. Variable local land breezes every morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small to moderate sized, inconsistent SW swell tomorrow in the 4-5ft+ range.

Large, consistent S’ly groundswell building strongly Tuesday, peaking later to 8ft to possibly 10ft across exposed breaks, easing through the rest of the week.

Variable winds.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing levels of S/SE swell.

Inconsistent S/SW swell today/tomorrow to 4ft+ across the southern atolls, easing slowly into the weekend.

Small to moderate sized S/SE trade-swell building Tuesday to 3ft+, holding Wednesday, easing into the end of the week.

Moderate sized, inconsistent long-period S/SE groundswell building Tuesday to 4ft+ on the southern atolls, easing Wednesday.

Freshening S’ly winds tomorrow but more so into Saturday, tending variable from Sunday and then freshening from the W across northern and central locations next week. Likely tending SW across southern locations.