Indonesia/Maldives forecast Jul 11

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 11th July)

This week through next (Jul 12 - 19)

The surf is on the ease, but into tomorrow we should see our consistent pulse of large sized mid-period SW swell, easing into the weekend ahead of a less consistent but stronger S/SW groundswell late Sunday but more so Monday.

The source of both swells is effectively the same frontal progression with an initial, northward protruding frontal system generating tomorrow’s swell, while a more significant polar frontal system firing up on the backside of the storm is generating Monday’s swell.

Winds weren’t overly strong for the initial swell but it looks fun and consistent, while the polar front is producing a fetch of W/SW gales that will produce a similar sized, though less consistent, stronger S/SW groundswell for Monday.

We should see the surf starting to ease later Monday but more so Monday/Tuesday with a new inconsistent background SW groundswell arriving through Wednesday ahead of a slightly better S/SW groundswell Thursday.

The background swell has been generated by a distant storm under South Africa and only looks small to moderate in size, while the backend of the progression looks to fire up north of the Heard Island region next weekend.

Being a low isn’t ideal as the fetch length is diminished but we should see fetches of gale to severe-gale SW winds aimed through our southern swell window, producing a moderate + sized S/SW swell for Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

Behind this low we might see a bit stronger frontal activity but at this stage the swells looks to be in the moderate to large size range compared to large, but there is potential. More on this Tuesday.

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In the Maldives, a good pulse of S/SE groundswell should be on the build today across the region, with it peaking this afternoon/tomorrow morning before easing into the weekend.

As this swell eases a renewal of SE tending S/SE trade-swell is due thanks to a great fetch of strengthening E/SE winds to the south of the region today through the weekend.

This fetch will reach maturity on Sunday before weakening and slipping a further west, away from us.

As a result moderate to large levels of swell should build on the weekend, peaking Sunday through Tuesday, easing later and further into Wednesday/Thursday.

We then look at a much more significant fetch of E/SE trades setting up through the northern Indian Ocean during next week. This looks to be the most robust fetch this season so far, generating large, strong SE swell to the Maldives from late next week. At this stage it could reach an easy 6-8ft. More on this next update.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate + sized mid-period SW swell for tomorrow to 6ft+ across exposed breaks.

Less consistent, stronger S/SW groundswell arriving on dark Sunday, peaking Monday morning to 6ft+, easing into the afternoon and Tuesday/Wednesday.

Small to moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell to 3-5ft Wednesday afternoon.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell Thursday afternoon and Friday morning to 4-6ft.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades (strong tomorrow and early-mid next week), variable winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate sized + mid-period S/SW swell later today, peaking tomorrow morning to 6ft+ across exposed breaks, easing Saturday.

Less consistent, smaller, reinforcing S’ly groundswell building Monday, reaching 6ft during the day, easing Tuesday.

Moderate + sized SW groundswell for Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday to 4-5ft+.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell Thursday afternoon and Friday morning to 4-6ft.

Moderate sized levels of S/SE trade-swell next weekend.

Variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations into the weekend, persisting next week and becoming strong later next week/weekend while also reaching northern locations.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate + sized S/SE groundswell building today, reaching 3-5ft across the southern atolls late, easing from a similar size Friday morning.

Large SE tending S/SE trade-swell building over the weekend, reaching 6ft+ on the magnets Sunday/Monday, easing slowly Tuesday.

Larger SE trade-swell for later in the week to 6-8ft across exposed breaks Friday, easing slowly next weekend.

W/SW-SW winds across the central and northern atolls, tending S across southern locations tomorrow and Saturday.

W winds Sunday, variable to the south with stronger W/SW-W winds across northern and central locations early next week with S winds to the south.

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 11 Jul 2024 at 4:48pm

Latest notes are live.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 11 Jul 2024 at 6:32pm

Cheers Craig , yesterday was fun 3 ft occasionally overhead but today was waist high on the rock . Ulu’s looked bigger on the cams , here’s hoping tomorrow delivers .

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 12 Jul 2024 at 8:00pm

On the money with this swell Craig , just a bummer on the rock that the wind wasn’t cooperating, bit of bump and chop . Fark it was crowded, father and son teams everywhere , some kids looked terrified and a few South American gals were in way over their heads. Some people misjudge the size because its 700 meters offshore. Glad I’m heading east next month as the august European invasion will be huge .

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 12 Jul 2024 at 9:18pm

Thanks Supa, heard it wasn't really showing well in the Ments.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 12 Jul 2024 at 10:48pm

Solid 5ft sets on NL

Fraser G's picture
Fraser G's picture
Fraser G Saturday, 13 Jul 2024 at 2:10pm

Going to be in the Maldives from the 18th heres to some swell

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Saturday, 13 Jul 2024 at 8:13pm

Looks like you've timed it well Fraser G, where you going?

Fraser G's picture
Fraser G's picture
Fraser G Sunday, 14 Jul 2024 at 8:20pm

Muli F1s

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 14 Jul 2024 at 1:16am

Today was crap on NL , waist to head high at best with southerly blows at ( I’m guessing 25-30 KLMs ) choppy shite , come Monday hopefully swell and wind direction improves . As usual sunset was calm & beautiful. IMG-7865
IMG-7868

ashsam's picture
ashsam's picture
ashsam Monday, 15 Jul 2024 at 12:30pm

supre put a hat on next time lol ;)

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 15 Jul 2024 at 12:42pm

IMG-7878

ashsam's picture
ashsam's picture
ashsam Monday, 15 Jul 2024 at 1:02pm

must off had that one ready to roll lol :)

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 15 Jul 2024 at 1:05pm

Nah , just googled dickhead and your photo popped up . gol

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 15 Jul 2024 at 10:34pm

Pumping today , some beautiful waves morning and afternoon. 4-5ft+

shhbrunette's picture
shhbrunette's picture
shhbrunette Wednesday, 17 Jul 2024 at 10:08am

No Tuesday update? Sad

SloMoeJoe's picture
SloMoeJoe's picture
SloMoeJoe Wednesday, 17 Jul 2024 at 5:20pm

Hi Craig, any up date on the SE trade swell. It looks impressive on the charts. The wind has been down graded a little but it still has a long fetch. I'm thinking as big as it gets for some places west of indo that face east.

Jeremy Clayton's picture
Jeremy Clayton's picture
Jeremy Clayton Thursday, 18 Jul 2024 at 4:52pm

Hey when will the new Indo update come in?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 18 Jul 2024 at 4:59pm

Tuesday (Craig is away this week).