Indonesia/Maldives forecast March 28

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 28th March)

This week through next (Mar 29 - Apr 5)

All eyes are on the large SW groundswell due into this Sunday/Monday across the region, with the northward protruding frontal system linked to it now in a much weaker state, pushing east towards Western Australia.

All the major swell production has been done, with polar W/SW gales then turning north, aimed right up into the Indonesian region. Owing to how far north the frontal progression projected, we can expect large, consistent surf with it building through Sunday and becoming large later in the day, holding Monday morning before tailing off slowly from a more S/SW direction Tuesday and Wednesday.

It’ll be worth making the most of this swell, as the outlook becomes slow for the rest of next week thanks to high pressure dominating the Indian Ocean.

The next increase in size is pegged for early the following week, that being the 8/9th of April.

Moderate levels of S/SW swell are likely, generated by strong but relatively small (in scope) polar frontal activity.

We’ll have a closer look at this on Tuesday.

In the Maldives, we’ve got a slow decline in SE swell which peaked yesterday morning, and this will continue to ease into the end of the week.

Come the weekend, the large S’ly groundswell from the northward protruding frontal progression is due to fill in.

The swell should build strongly and rapidly Saturday, showing the most size late and early Sunday before easing into next week.

Besides this, some small new S’ly groundswell is on the cards for next Thursday, followed by possible stronger pulses into the following weekend. 

Longer term, building levels of SE trade-swell are due into the week starting the 8th, more so mid-late week but we’ll have a closer look at this on Tuesday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large mix of SW swells building Sunday, reaching 6ft to occasionally 8ft into the evening, easing Monday from a similar size. Swell fading further through next week.

Weak E/SE-SE trades, freshening on the weekend before easing off again next week, variable offshore each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Large mix of S/SW swells building later Saturday, peaking Sunday afternoon to 6-8ft across the magnets, easing from a slightly smaller size Monday morning, smaller into the rest of the week.

Moderate to fresh S/SE-SE winds across southern locations tomorrow, variable to the north. Moderate E/SE-SE winds across southern locations through the weekend, variable to the north. Winds becoming variable across all locations next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Slowly easing SE swell tomorrow from 3-4ft across exposed breaks.

Large S’ly groundswell building Saturday, reaching 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the southern atolls late, easing Sunday from a similar size, further next week.

Small-moderate sized, reinforcing S’ly groundswell for Thursday to 3ft+ across the southern atolls.

Stronger mix of S’ly swell the following weekend, and building SE trade-swell mid-late the following week.

Variable winds tomorrow and Saturday, similar Sunday morning but tending N/NE-NE into the afternoon. Weak E/NE-NE winds through early-mid next week, variable thereafter.


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 28 Mar 2024 at 2:03pm

Latest notes are live.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 28 Mar 2024 at 6:50pm

Thank you Craig , short but hopefully very sweet .

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 29 Mar 2024 at 6:24am

Yep, let's see how it comes in. It does have a bit of longevity thanks to some secondary weaker fetches, but nothing like the initial pulse.

Mickieyoyo's picture
Mickieyoyo's picture
Mickieyoyo Saturday, 30 Mar 2024 at 8:20pm

Perfect for the longboard sup comp in sanur's picture's picture Saturday, 30 Mar 2024 at 9:34pm

Bali bagus

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 2 Apr 2024 at 11:15am

How did the swell go?

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Tuesday, 2 Apr 2024 at 12:15pm

Heard from a mate that airport right was 3ft and middles was 6ft+ yesterday with no wind

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 2 Apr 2024 at 12:13pm

Slow to arrive on Sunday here on Lembongan Craig but afternoon was pretty good at lassos . It’s such a weird place , all the swell moved up to the playgrounds end of the reef and it was bigger than shipwrecks . Next morning there was solid 8ft at muntigs , razors and shipwrecks but wind was from north and didn’t clean up until about 10.00 am . Then it went quiet for awhile waiting for the tide to do its thing . I’m sure it would have been pumping on the Bukit . I took these two shots yesterday arvo at lassos which wasn’t as good as Sunday arvo . Swells dropped a bit today but on the tide should be well overhead . IMG-6213

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 2 Apr 2024 at 12:16pm

Nice, thanks guys!