Indonesia/Maldives forecast October 17th

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 17th October)

This week through next week (Oct 18 - 27)

Yesterday's inconsistent but good groundswell played out to script, building through the day and peaking into the afternoon.

This swell is now on the ease and will bottom out over the coming days thanks to a benign Southern Ocean storm track and nothing of significance firing up in the Indian Ocean.

Our next pulse of swell is due from the S/SW, being small and weak in nature. It is being generated by a weak front pushing towards Western Australia, with a fetch of strong W/SW winds due to produce a small lift in wave heights later Saturday, peaking Sunday.

Following this the surf will again ease and bottom out into the middle of next week ahead of another possible weak pulse of mid-period energy Friday.

Of greater importance is a possible better groundswell due into Sunday/Monday the 29/30th of the month, produced by a healthy polar low firing up around the Heard Island region early-mid next week. This is a long way out so check back Thursday for an idea on how it's tracking.

Looking at the Maldives and the outlook isn't much better.

A break down of the swell generating trades over the coming days will see the swell drop off behind it.

Moderate levels of SE energy that are being seen today will ease slowly through this week, becoming weaker as the period drops and the size fades.

The swell looks to continue to fade into the weekend and next week, getting to a small 2ft max on the magnets.

Also in the mix, small, background levels of S'ly swell should keep the southern atolls topped up with 2ft+ sets through the period.

Eastern Indonesia:

Easing surf over the coming days.

Small – moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell building later Saturday, peaking Sunday morning to 3-5ft across exposed breaks, easing.

Possible moderate sized + S/SW groundswell for Sunday/Monday 29/30th to 6ft across exposed breaks

Weak (moderate to fresh) E/SE-SE trades, light and variable each morning. Weaker trades later week and into the weekend, through early next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing surf this week.

Small pulse of mid-period S/SW swell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-4ft across exposed breaks, easing into next week.

Possible moderate sized + S/SW groundswell for Sunday/Monday 29/30th to 6ft across exposed breaks

Fresh to strong SE-S/SE trades across southern locations, lighter and more variable to the north though. Slowly weakening trades across southern locations late week and into the weekend but persisting.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Slowly easing SE trade-swell from today through the week, smaller next week and reaching 2ft by early next week.

Small background levels of S'ly to 2ft+ across the southern atolls.

Mostly variable winds this week, SE to the south, similar into the weekend with winds shifting E/SE to the south.


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Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Oct 2023 at 3:19pm

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