Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Aug 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Good quality E/NE groundswell this week from intense low in Tasman, building Mon PM, peaking Tues/Wed
• N’ly winds Mon, tending NW-W/NW Tues and NW-W/SW Wed
• Slow easing in quality E/NE swell Thurs/Fri with light winds

Recap

Not much over the weekend with small E/NE swells to 1-2ft both days under N’ly winds. Today is seeing more size with both local NE windswell and longer period E/NE swell filling in to 3-5ft under fresh N’ly winds.

This week and next week (Aug 4- Aug16)

Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) pass shows a low in the Northern Tasman with SE gales proximate to the NSW Coast and a long, broad fetch of E’ly gales extending from the Tasman out to a position north of the North Island. This slow moving fetch will maintain elevated E/NE’ly swells for the majority of this week with embedded pulses and only a very slow easing trend through the week. That puts the focus back on local winds (and sandbanks!) as the main arbiter of surf quality. 

In the short run we’ll see fresh/strong N’ly winds shift NW through the day at similar speeds. E/NE groundswell holds in the 4-5ft range with 6ft sets on occ. 

Similar sized surf for Wed with NW winds shifting W/NW, then W/SW to SW as a cold front tracks across the state. That should offer some great surf on the beachies under offshore winds.

Just a slow ramp down in size expected through Thurs and Fri likely holding 4-5ft Thurs, 3-4ft Fri.

Winds should be basically W’ly through Thurs as a front passes too the south then light offshore tending SE as a high pressure approaches the state bringing light winds and settled conditions. 

Only small leftovers for the weekend with light winds as high pressure drifts over then SE of the state. 

Fun sized 2-3ft Sat, easing below 2ft on Sun.

Into next week and there is still a possibility for another sub-tropical low to form and track into the Tasman, bringing sizier E/NE swells from mid week.

Expect a small start to the week with a possibility of some size on Wed.

Check back Wed for the latest.

Seeya then.