Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Thurs
• Background E swell continues Thurs with S’ly winds
• Long period S swell wrap Fri, increasing a notch Sat, easing Sun
• Good quality E/NE groundswell likely next week from intense low in Tasman, building Mon PM, peaking Tues/Wed

Recap

More small E'ly swells through yesterday and today with a few inconsistent 2ft sets, mostly clean although S'ly winds are getting up today and small S swell is building.

This week and next week (Jul 30- Aug8)

A precursor low and trough are moving offshore today from the NSW Mid North/North Coast bringing mod/fresh S’lies south of the low. The trough lingers and then deepens rapidly in response to an upper cold pool on Sat. A deep, complex low pressure system (see Beast from the East) then forms in the Tasman and slowly migrates towards the North Island with large E’ly swell pulses generated over a prolonged period. This event will be occupying most of our f/cast attention through the rest of this week and next. 

In the short run we’ll see the S’ly flow ramp up tomorrow tending S/SE at mod paces. S swells peak in the morning in the 3ft range along with the very inconsistent E swell sets to 2-3ft.

Long period S groundswell wrap then supplies 2-3ft sets Fri under light winds tending to variable breezes in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and a strop get pulse of long period S swell offers sets to 3ft+, clean as high pressure sits over Tasmania and offers light winds all day.

That swell then eases Sun with small leftovers to 1-2ft and light winds tending N-N/NE’ly.

Next week still looks dynamic with an intense low drifting in the Tasman towards the North Island. 

E’ly gales in a broad fetch remain into the new week with a massive high new New Zealand (1042hPa) acting as supporting cradle for the Tasman low which will be drifting eastwards to a slot north of the North Island. That will lead to elevated surf from the E/NE for most of next week with just a very slow, gradual tapering off as the fetch slowly weakens while remaining basically semi-stationary. Embedded pulses are likely during this slow taper off as areas of stronger winds in the fetch retrograde westwards.

We’ll pencil in size building into the 4-5ft range Mon, building further  in the 5-6ft range Tues and in excess of 6ft Wed. 

OK, local winds. They should be N’ly into the new week as high pressure moves over the continent. 

By Tues we’ll see W’ly ridging.

That pattern should extend through Wed and into Thurs with freshening NW winds a possibility then as a new front/low approaches from the W.

Easing swells to a nice mop up day Thurs with small surf Fri.

Further ahead we may see another low form in the Tasman over next weekend (9-10/8) - although only EC is interested at this stage.

Lot’s to focus on short term so we’ll keep eyes on that and report back Fri for a last looks before the weekend.

Seeya then.