Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell increase Thurs but low quality and with fresh S’ly winds
• SE swell Fri with SE winds
• Fun sized ESE swell Sat with light winds
• Small leftovers Sun with offshore winds
• Nice pulse of E swell Mon with light winds
• Tracking potential for large NE swell from Wed next week, stay tuned for updates Fri

Recap

Fun sized E/NE swell came in at the top end of f/cast expectations or above with size in the 2-3ft range Tues and with light winds there were some really nice waves to be had. Today has eased back into the 2ft range , with clean conditions early now being marred by a developing S’ly flow.

This week and next week (Sep 28-Oct 7)

We are now on the cusp of a low pressure event as a complex inland trough of low pressure forms a new low off the Central NSW Coast,  backed by an advancing strong high pressure cell. While most of the wind field is aimed at targets to the north of Tasmania there’s enough width in the fetch to supply some nice sideband energy to the East Tas coast.

In the short run and mod S to SE winds freshen through tomorrow  as the low winds up and a high pressure ridge builds in quickly along the East Coast. That will see a quick rise in SSE swell through tomorrow PM, up into the 3-4ft range, although with onshore winds it’ll be hard to find  a clean wave.

The bottom of the fetch extending off the low into the central Tasman generates a more E/SE angled swell for Fri, building from 3ft into the 3-4ft range, although the high pressure ridge maintains onshore SE winds, tending E/SE to E in the a’noon so quality will be constrained.

Into the weekend and the high moves due East of the Island on Sat morning, leading to a regime of light winds, possibly tending offshore through the morning. E-ESE swell in the 3ft range supplies fun waves through the day on Sat if you don’t mind light onshore breezes in the a’noon.

Size drops away through Sun as the fetch in the Tasman dissipates and becomes confined to Cook Strait and the west coast of the North Island. Expect a few 2ft sets through the morning, easing away further through the day. Conditions should be nice and clean though, as a small trough in between two high pressure cells brings a weak W’ly flow through the day.

The Cook Strait fetch is aimed at NSW but some small sideband energy on Mon produces a few 2ft sets, clean under NW winds.
That drops back to tiny on Tues.

From Wed we’ll see yet another mid-latitude, cut-off low, likely linked to an inland trough system, advancing towards the  region. With a high in the Tasman, we’ll see increasing NE’ly flow along the coast and offshore. Thats likely to see increasing NE windswell from Wed a’noon across the East Coast. There’s still some model divergence to deal with but some model runs show gales developing in close proximity to the NE Tas coast (see below). Under this scenario we will be looking at a serious NE swell event, with size potentially up into the 6-8ft range through Thurs/Fri.

We’ll need to come back Fri and see how specifics are shaping up, but for now pencil in increasing NE swell from next Wed, with potential for large surf Thurs-Sat.

Check back in Fri for the latest updates.