Summer blocking pattern ushers in a period of tiny surf

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan19)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

  • New short range swell Wed with fresh S to SSE winds, easing back to small leftovers Thurs
  • Surf easing back to tiny for a few days from Fri into mid next week as high pressure parks itself next to Tasmania
  • NE windswell on the radar for Thurs/Fri next week, stay tuned for updates


E/NE swell from Ex TC Cody supplied inconsistent 3ft surf Tues with mod S’ly winds becoming established. S swell has built today into the 3ft range at S exposed breaks with mod/fresh S’ly winds easing and tending SE through the day. This swell will dribble away to tiny leftovers into the rest of the week and weekend.

This week and next week (Jan19-Jan28)

A classic Summer blocking pattern is now setting up with a slow moving high drifting well south of Victoria and a series of troughs interacting with a strong high pressure ridge which has reached Central NSW and is now building into more sub-tropical regions. This ridge/trough combo is developing a broad windfield through the Central Tasman, which is also migrating northwards along the QLD coast through the f/cast period. Unfortunately the blocking pattern is in a poor position for East Coast Tasmania with both swell windows effectively shut down as high pressure slowly moves to sidle up next to Tasmania. 

This pattern will see an extended period of tiny surf and light winds with the current S swell ebbing away through tomorrow with just a few 2ft sets leftover before surf eases right back and winds become light and variable.

Great diving/fishing conditions continue as light/variable winds and tiny swells continue from Fri over the weekend.

There’s really no change to the pattern until later next week. A complex trough system is expected to approach from Victoria, with high pressure drifting near New Zealand. A pressure gradient squeeze between these two systems is expected to see a modest but well positioned fetch of N’ly winds develop off the Gippsland coast down into Bass Strait and adjacent to the East Coast. On current modelling that’s likely to see NE windswell building next Thurs 27/1 into the 2ft range, building further into Fri.

This is way off in the distance so confidence is low on that call.

Check back Fri and we’ll have a fresh look at it.