Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec1)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Thurs 
• Small S pulse Sat PM, easing Sun
• NE windswell on track for Mon/Tues next week
• Solid E/NE swell on the radar for Fri next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Small levels of NE windswell have seen surf in the 1-2ft range yesterday, with light N’ly winds. Today that swell source has evaporated with only tiny waves in the 1ft range on offer with light/mod N’ly winds.

This week and next week (Dec1-Dec10)

High pressure is now drifting over New Zealand with multiple trough areas through the Tasman Sea, interior, and extending along the East Coast from the tropics down to temperate NSW.

The N’ly flow down the NSW S. Coast and adjacent to the East Coast is only weak so expect similar small, weak NE windswell to continue through Thurs, likely a slight increase on today, but not exceeding 1-2ft. 

A trough lying over Tasmania brings a more NW/SW flow through Thurs before a stronger S’ly change Fri as a front passes the state. 

No surf is expected from these rapid wind changes and weak, transient fetches.

A front passing to the south on Sat is expected to see a small flush of S swell in the 2ft range at S facing beaches during Sat PM, easing quickly during Sun. Winds look better late Sat, under a light N/NE flow, but they will be flukey so keep tabs on local winds and you may score a small surf at a S exposed beach.

Better options next week as a new high pressure system quickly migrates through the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand and a N’ly fetch develops off the South Coast and down to Bass Strait. 

This offers good odds for a NE windswell to build Mon, up into the 3-4ft range, possibly 3-5ft if wind speeds cooperate with model predictions.

This swell should hold into Tuesday at similar size with continuing fresh N to NNE winds.

A trough and associated S’ly change is expected Wed next week, with a proximate fetch of low end gales whipping up a fast rising pulse of S swell through Wed. We’ll need to see how the system shapes up but size in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches is on the cards.

Major uncertainty then kicks for the end of next week. 

The crux of the uncertainty is an area of low pressure forming just south of New Caledonia later this weekend/Monday. GFS model feeding most wave models has the low quickly intensifying and retrograding in a SW direction towards the East Coast. 

Under that scenario we are on track for a solid increase in E/NE swell from Fri next week, with size in the 4-5ft range and W’ly winds as a change pushes up the coast.

The low then degrades into a long trough, with E/NE winds aimed in a broad swathe towards Southern NSW and Tasmania offering more surf potential.

Other major models like EC have much less bullish outlook with the low remaining weak and washing out SW of New Caledonia.

That would see a slight increase in E swell into the end of next week from that source.

With so much model uncertainty- a feature of the atmospheric instability through the SW Pacific caused by La Nina- lets pencil in E swell from late next week and check back Fri to see how it’s shaping up as far as the details go.