Craig

Southerly followed by a large N/NE swell

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th September)

Best Days: South swell magnets tomorrow, northern corners Friday and Saturday, Sunday morning

Recap

A fun pulse of S'ly swell yesterday to 2-3ft across south swell magnets with favourable winds, fading back today and tiny.

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This week and weekend (Sep 19 - 22)

We've got one more good pulse of long-period S'ly groundswell tomorrow morning, and then a great N/NE windswell event with an upgrade in the size since Monday.

The S'ly groundswell has been generated by a very intense polar low moving through our southern swell window the last day or so, with a weakening fetch of storm-force W'ly winds produced.

There's been no change to the expected size with south swell magnets due to see 3-5ft sets in the morning, fading through the day and tiny on Friday.

As the S'y groundswell eases a building N/NE windswell event will take place. No real size is expected later tomorrow above 2ft, and winds will be moderate and N/NW early, stronger N/NE into the afternoon.

The windswell event will be linked to a strong and stubborn high in the Tasman Sea being squeezed by a strong but weakening front moving in from WA, resulting in three days of strengthening and broadening N/NE winds in our swell window.

The fetch will start to strengthen on Thursday evening and Friday, with the swell around 3ft+ Friday morning, building further to 4ft+ into the afternoon, while the strongest pulse is due Saturday as winds broaden and strengthen further Friday evening.

Large surf in the 6ft+ range, if not for the odd bigger cleanup at north-east magnets is expected, only easing later in the day and winds will be gusty out of the N'th ahead of a late NW change. So stick to northern ends.

The change will be shallow with winds expected to persist from the NW on Sunday morning as the swell drops rapidly from 3ft.

Following this there's nothing too significant on the cards, but we've got plenty to play with over the coming period.