Large, windy and wet weekend
UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF
COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 6th September)
Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow, Sunday, protected spots Monday
Small fun levels of E/NE swell yesterday, dropping today and poor with strengthening onshore winds.
This weekend and next week (Sep 7 - 13)
An intense and cold mid-latitude low is currently moving in from the west while deepening and over the coming days we'll see large and windy surf developing across the coast, biggest tomorrow afternoon.
Currently a slim fetch of strong to gale-force NE-E/NE winds are being aimed at us, with this fetch slipping away to the south-east tomorrow morning.
This will limit the swell expected out of the E/NE, but come tomorrow morning, the southern flank of the low will project a fetch of E/SE gales right into us, producing a rapid increase in stormy E/SE swell.
Size wise, tomorrow morning looks to be around the 4ft range and with strong S/SE winds and torrential rain, creating poor conditions.
The swell is due to build rapidly to a stormy 6-8ft into the late afternoon but with persistent strong S/SE winds.
The low will start to push north through Saturday evening and Sunday, resulting in local winds easing and the swell easing from a large 6ft+ across open beaches.
Winds will swing more S/SW-SW, creating cleaner conditions with afternoon N/NE sea breezes on the cards.
The swell will drop more steadily Monday from the 4ft range across open beaches, but another strong front pushing up and past us will bring a new mid-period S'ly swell. Size wise there isn't expected to be much power to it, with south facing beaches building to the 4ft range with strong S/SW tending S'ly winds.
Tuesday will be much cleaner with a W/NW offshore ahead of NE sea breezes and small easing S'ly sets from 2ft+ at south magnets.
Longer term, a small fetch of E'ly winds off New Zealand may generate a small pulse of E'ly swell for Thursday morning, but we look to other possible developments later in the week and into next weekend.
The models diverge on the possibility of a couple of strong mid-latitude lows pushing up past us, so check back here Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!