Large powerful SW groundswell, slower thereafter
Bali and Mentawais forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 27th September)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period besides Tuesday afternoon/early Wednesday
This week through next weekend (Sep 28 – Oct 5)
Bali: A new long-period SW groundswell should be breaking across the archipelago today and we'll see this swell ease off through tomorrow morning ahead of a late increase in very long-period SW groundswell.
This swell impacted Western Australia today on forecast and we should see the swell building overnight Friday and further through Saturday to a strong though inconsistent 6-8ft into the afternoon across swell magnets.
A slow drop in size should then be seen Sunday from a similar size, smaller into Monday with the swell bottoming out later Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Winds will remain a little funky tomorrow with weak variable breezes in the morning, and afternoon S'ly sea breezes, with more regular E/SE trades kicking back in from the weekend and through next week.
A new long-period S/SW groundswell is due mid-week, building Wednesday and peaking overnight before easing Thursday, generated by a flurry of less than favourably aligned but persistent polar frontal activity south-west of WA.
Initial pre-frontal W/NW gales will setup an active sea state for a better aligned fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds to move over in our southern swell window, generating a long-period S/SW groundswell that is due to build Wednesday and reach 4-5ft+ across south swell magnets, easing from a similar size Thursday.
The possible larger swell for the weekend has been downgraded with the severe low that was forecast to form south-west of WA now strengthening more below Australia, out of our swell window.
More on this Tuesday.
Ments: A good kick in long-period S/SW groundswell should have been been seen yesterday, with a slow drop through today.
The long-period, large and strong SW groundswell due tomorrow is expected to build steadily through tomorrow, reaching 8ft on the sets by dark with a peak Saturday coming in just over this with solid cleanups across swell magnets.
A slow drop in size is then expected through Sunday from 6ft+, further into next week, and bottoming out Wednesday morning.
The S/SW swell due across Bali Wednesday/Thursday will come in smaller across our region and only provide a slight bump to 3-4ft, easing into the end of the week.
Winds look persistent out of the SE each morning, fresh and gusty into the afternoons from the S/SE and stronger later in the weekend, before easing into next week.
Longer term a new small to moderate sized SW groundswell is likely Sunday the 7th, but more on this Tuesday.