Craig

Large powerful swell tomorrow, slower next week

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 15th June)

Best Days: Experienced surfers Friday and Saturday

This week and next (Jun 16 - 23)

Bali: A temporary low point in swell has been seen this morning but a large long-period S/SW groundswell should be starting to build into this afternoon.

The swell came in a little under expectations in WA and with this I've dropped back the expected size a little across the region.

Sets should reach the 8ft range by dark this evening at swell magnets, but with long waits between them.

Tomorrow should reveal large clean surf with the S/SW groundswell coming in around 8-10ft across swell magnets all morning ahead of a slight easing trend late, further into Saturday from 6-8ft, down further Sunday and Monday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE winds are due over the coming period (lighter and variable early each morning) with a slight strengthening Sunday and Monday.

Into next week there's nothing major due, with the most size expected on Tuesday as a new S/SW groundswell fills in. This has been generated by good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales in the south-east Indian Ocean and should boost swell magnets back to the 4-5ft range during the morning, easing later and further Wednesday.

Longer term we're looking at moderate pulses of S'ly groundswell from next weekend as a series of late forming polar lows fire up towards WA. The direction of these swells isn't ideal and the size limited to the 6ft range at this early stage. More on this next update.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: The first pulse of long-period and inconsistent S/SW groundswell should be breaking across the Mentawais today, while a secondary slightly more consistent increase is due into tomorrow morning, offering strong 8ft bomb sets.

A slow drop in size is due into the afternoon, back to the 6ft range Saturday and then further down from there on Sunday.

SE winds today will tend more variable tomorrow creating cleaner conditions at exposed breaks, light though the rest of the period.

S/SW swell due across Bali on Tuesday has formed a little late in the Mentawais swell window and isn't due to offer much over 3-4ft at magnets.

A small inconsistent SW groundswell is expected Wednesday afternoon and Thursday but only to 3-5ft or so before fading into the end of the week.

Longer term there's nothing too major until the following week when some fun SW groundswell is due. More on this Tuesday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph