Craig

Moderate S/SW swells ahead of an oversized S/SW swell next week

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 21st June)

Best Days: Thursday onwards, experienced surfers only later Monday/Tuesday

This week and next (Jun 22 – Jul 1)

We're currently between swells with small background energy breaking across the coast.

Small waves will continue through tomorrow with exposed breaks the only option for a surf, tiny to flat elsewhere.

Our moderate pulses of S/SW groundswell due from Thursday through the weekend are still on track, with Saturday's being the strongest.

Thursday's pulse doesn't look to offer any major size with swell magnets due to build to an inconsistent 3-5ft on the sets, easing back from a similar size Friday morning.

Saturday's swell which may be seen later Friday was generated by a vigorous polar low firing up in the Heard Island region over the weekend, generating a fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds on the edge of our southern swell window.

A moderate sized and long-period S/SW groundswell is due off this low, arriving later Friday and peaking Saturday morning to the 5-6ft+ range across exposed breaks. A slow drop in size is due from the afternoon, further into Sunday and Monday.

Looking at the winds over the coming days, and weak E/SE trades are due tomorrow and Thursday, strengthening from Friday into the weekend before easing again Monday and tending variable Tuesday. It's also worth remembering that winds each morning should be variable and locally offshore during this period.

As touched on last update, a large S/SW groundswell possible for Monday/Tuesday is on track. In fact it looks like another belter, with a very intense polar low due to form in the Heard Island region tomorrow afternoon/evening.

This low will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds slowly up towards Western Australia in a 'captured fetch' motion before pushing further east while weakening under the state Saturday.

The slow moving nature and sustained winds between 40-50kts will help generate an oversized and strong long-period S/SW groundswell that looks better than the swell that was due to impact a couple of weeks ago, but failed to reach its full potential.

The swell is due to be fairly consistent due to the favourable projection towards us, with it arriving very strongly later Monday, kicking to 6-8ft by dark and peaking early Tuesday to an easy 10ft+ across exposed breaks. As touched on above winds will be more variable Tuesday so the reefs might not be lining up as perfect as they could be.

The swell will ease from the afternoon, into Wednesday, with a possible reinforcing pulse for Thursday, but we'll review this in the next update.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 21 Jun 2016 at 5:03pm

Thanks Craig we could be in luck for next week. The thing I find ultra important in Indo is consistency due to the crowd factor. A decent swell is useless if there are only 3 waves a set every 30 minutes.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 21 Jun 2016 at 5:05pm

Yeah for sure, looks the goods!

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 commented Tuesday, 21 Jun 2016 at 7:44pm

Hey Craig my mate is staying near balagan beach. Is balagan considered a swell magnet like ulawatu or will it be smaller cheers

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 21 Jun 2016 at 7:55pm

I think you mean Balangan? No, it's more inside towards Jimbaran Bay so will be a lot smaller, especially with this southerly direction.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016 at 7:40am

Was gonna post in the forum but my as well go here (hopefully cop less of a hiding!) any advice on similar, slightly more 'user-friendly' (ie; smaller haha) spots for when ulu's and the like starts getting around and above the 6-8 ft mark? Very specific question so no worries if you'd rather not answer. Cheers

paulinoz's picture
paulinoz's picture
paulinoz commented Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016 at 2:40pm

You can try halfways at kuta. It's no secret spot. the banks are good on the high tide and large swell, and all the local rippers will be at padang padang , but bring paddling arms coz the rip is strong. There are other spots near and far but you'll have to find them for yourself.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016 at 3:06pm

cheers paulinoz well aware of the beachies (would've thought that whole stretch would be a bit of a write off), was more so looking at trying to approach some of the other reefs down the bukit (either side of the main day) that might be a bit more approachable than big ulu's, guess i'll have a look around

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016 at 6:48am

Arriving 1st july! then off to Lombok on 7th for 10 days! last time in Lombok(Kuta) scored some epic waves when the swell was 6 to 8ft+! Are we to far out to predict swell size in this window? Packing the 6'10 Cloughy now!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016 at 7:33am

Looks like you're arriving during an active period at this early stage, back to back moderate to large groundswells.