Craig

Better swells next week

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 6th August)

Best Days: Later Monday onwards

This week and next week (Aug 7 – Aug 14)

A slight kick in background S/SW is due this afternoon and this will ease into tomorrow, with exposed spots the go early under variable winds, strengthening from the E/SE through the day. Sets should be in the 3-5ft range early.

The weekend will be small and inconsistent, but our S/SW groundswell pulses due from later Monday next week are still on track.

A strong polar frontal progression is currently generating a good S/SW groundswell for Tuesday, but a front shedding off this progression and projecting north-east towards us over the coming days will help kick up a more consistent and larger increase in size for Tuesday.

We should see exposed breaks build to 6-8ft through Tuesday, easing back slowly from a less consistent 6ft+ Wednesday.

The easing trend will be stopped into Thursday as a reinforcing S/SW groundswell fills in, generated by a broad but relatively weak trailing front behind the main progression, keeping exposed spots kicking to 6ft.

A temporary low point is due Friday morning, but an afternoon kick in new long-range S/SW groundswell from continued strong frontal activity to the south-west of WA is expected.

Exposed breaks should kick back to the 6ft range on the sets and then ease into the weekend.

Longer term we may see a larger S/SW groundswell for the region early the week of the 17th, but we'll have a closer look at this on Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 commented Friday, 7 Aug 2015 at 10:27am

Fkn average season!

Oi

ksurf's picture
ksurf's picture
ksurf commented Friday, 7 Aug 2015 at 11:04am

Any chance you could give an indication of the winds in the upper atmosphere in relation to the volcanic ash the next few days? Would be much appreciated.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 7 Aug 2015 at 11:09am

At a quick glance, not too good at this stage Ksurf.

Swinging from the N'th to NW over the weekend and then more variable into next week.

ksurf's picture
ksurf's picture
ksurf commented Friday, 7 Aug 2015 at 11:14am

Bugga. Trapped in Indo.

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 commented Friday, 7 Aug 2015 at 2:43pm

Hello Craig,
How far can you start getting a scene if a strong node of the Long Wave Trough is moving into a decent position to support swell being sent up into the Indian.
Thanks Sarge

Oi