Look at the current conditions this way: at least when it’s flat, it can’t get any smaller.
It’s not a good week to be refining your rail technique, big wave prowess or length-in-the-barrel skillz.
Small residual energy will continue to be the dominant theme on Saturday, being a tiny influence of NE windswell and some distant, infrequent southerly swell.
Today’s S/SE swell should just hold through into Thursday morning but is expected to trend downwards during the day.
I’ve had a lot of fun analysing these complex systems in the Tasman over the last few weeks, but unfortunately our swell window has dried up and we’re looking at a lengthy period of small flukey swells, mainly from the southern quadrant.
Big and windy: that’s what this weekend has in store for us.
The most interesting aspect about Friday's outlook is the speed at which we’re likely to see wave heights ramp up across the coast.
Our current south swell will fade slowly from Tuesday onwards however we’ll see great conditions with generally light variable winds Tuesday freshening from the north-west, then west on Wednesday.
Both existing swells will ease further overnight, and we’ll be left with small peaky waves for Saturday with freshening W’ly winds ahead of a gusty S/SW change that’s expected to reach the South Coast around lunchtime and the Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra region late afternoon.
The leading edge of this swell is due to reach the coast this evening and by Thursday morning should be close to fifth gear in the surf zone.