Rip Curl WSL Finals - Trestles Early Forecast
We're fast approaching the final event of the CT season, not a showdown at Pipeline, nor Teahupoo, but the high-performance playing field that is Lower Trestles.
Before we get into the forecast: The latest news is that Ethan Ewing is on the mend from his back injury and "doing everything he can to compete at Trestles." It's an astounding recovery, and his chances increase the deeper into the waiting period the contest goes. That said, the early outlook is quite positive for the Californian cobblestone pointbreak.
Trestles is located in San Clemente, on the southern Californian coastline, and open to South Pacific swells arriving from the south-southwest to south. Anything further west of south-west is blocked by the the Channel Islands, and at this time of the year the region picks up distant, long-period groundswells from strong Southern Ocean storms.
That equals inconsistency though very defined sets when they do wrap into the cobblestone point.
Predominantly a long running right, swells with with a bit more west in them favour the left, though it is shorter.
The prime swell window sits just east of a line drawn south of Tahiti. This provides unobstructed access to polar frontal systems and mid-latitude storms, and with a travel time ranging between seven to ten days, depending where the swell generating fetch is positioned.
With the waiting period kicking off in eight days (Friday September 8th), this means any storms firing up from now through the coming week will be generating swell for the event which runs until Saturday the 16th. This gives us a good idea on the outlook.
Firstly, a strong mid-latitude low that's currently generating a large S/SW swell for Teahupoo (arriving in Tahiti late Friday at a tow-only size) will arrive just before the start of the waiting period later next week.
Following this, there'll be a couple of days of minimal swell generating activity and this will result in small, easing mid-period swell for the opening day of the waiting period, Friday 8th, then bottoming out through next weekend.
More promisingly, we've got a great swell producer due to develop well east of New Zealand and south of Tahiti early next week. This will be a polar low which will have a couple of embedded fronts spawning off it as it stalls in Trestles prime swell window.
An initial, strong polar front projecting north-east should produce a moderate sized S/SW groundswell for mid-week, most likely Wednesday 13th, that looks to build to 3-4ft after lunch. Follow up activity looks generally weaker but persistent, with surf ebbing and pulsing either side of the 4ft range due through the middle to end of the waiting period.
Keep in mind they only need one day to complete the contest.
Winds are too hard to nail down this far out but the most likely scenario is for light morning land breezes ahead of afternoon sea breezes.