With Christmas now done and dusted, preparations are underway for the run into the New Year.

In short, the East Coast is starting to look up, Western Oz is due another large south-west groundswell, while Victoria and South Australia look generally poor with only one or two brighter spots.

Let’s get into the details…

The source of the East Coast’s swell activity will be a stalling cold outbreak in the southern Tasman Sea, with it initially generating some acute though sizey southerly swell for Boxing Day.

Southerly winds will accompany the energy so exposed spots won’t have much shape, with semi-protected breaks fairing best.

The low is due to slowly weaken while broadening in scope, followed by a secondary surge of swell-generating winds moving northwards on Friday.

This follow up surge will produce a moderate-sized pulse of mid-period southerly swell for Sunday, easing very slowly Monday ahead of a quality south-east pulse through Tuesday and more easterly, stronger groundswell later Wednesday/Thursday.

This will be thanks to the low stalling in the central Tasman Sea while projecting bursts of strong to gale-force south-east then east-southeast winds towards the East Coast. Queensland can expect to see the most size through early to mid-week. 

The local southerly wind flow will continue till Monday morning when it’ll abate and swing more locally offshore with favourable conditions likely every morning before sea breezes kick in.

Early in the new year - timing isn’t yet certain -  another frontal system will enter the Tasman Sea bringing some renewed southerly swell albeit with southerly winds. 

All in all it’s a dynamic and active period with plenty of potential.

The Tasmanian East Coast will benefit from the southerly surge currently pushing up past the region, with the swell easing in size yet tweaking more easterly through Sunday and into early next week. A better easterly groundswell from the low in the Tasman may be seen Thursday morning but keep an eye on the regional Forecaster Notes.

The South Arm will receive plenty of southerly swell in the short term but with average local winds, improving once the size eases on Sunday and then mostly tiny next week ahead of some low period, onshore swell Thursday/Friday.

Moving to South Australia and Victoria, a tricky but fun pulse of acute westerly groundswell for Monday is well worth making the most of before a deepening trough brings another cold, onshore blast mid-late week.

The swell will be generated by a strong, tight low forming under Western Australia on Friday evening, with a quality groundswell due to build on dark Sunday in South Australia, peaking Monday to 2-3 foot on the Mid Coast with 3 foot surf off Middleton under local offshore winds.

The swell will build through the day across Victoria as north-east winds favour the exposed beaches, getting sizey and peaking to 4-5 feet with slow 2-3 foot sets on the Surf Coast.

Windy, low quality, onshore surf looks to develop Wednesday afternoon and then slowly ease into the end of the week with very limited options for a clean, quality wave.

Finally, the West Australian coast is seeing a windy increase in close-range swell through today, with some better southerly groundswell from the formation of the low pressure centre due tomorrow morning.

The swell will be south in nature and favour the South West but unfortunately it looks like winds will linger out of the south creating average conditions.

The surf will slowly improve while easing Sunday, with next week due to provide much better conditions as winds shift more offshore along with multiple pulses of swell.

An initial increase on Tuesday morning only looks small to moderate in size - likely a good 4-5 feet across the Margaret River region (tiny metro regions) - with a larger south-west groundswell on the cards for later Thursday/Friday morning. This will be sourced from a strong polar low forming around the Heard Island region and should come in around 8 feet on the sets in the South West, 2 feet to nearly 3 feet in Mandurah and 2 feet across Perth.

Local winds are still moving around but look to have a southerly tendancy, favouring protected spots, topping off a fun week of waves.

All in all it’s a generally positive forecast period as we head into 2026. Happy New Year from the entire Swellnet team.