2025 Christmas Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Note: This forecast takes in Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Boxing Day. Next week we'll have a forecast for the New Year period.

As the country winds down for the festive season, surfers' eyes are scanning the long-range surf forecast. Critical info for everyone with time on their hands.

Before we go around the grounds, if you have the freedom to travel wherever you want then there's one stand out region next week. That'd be Western Australia, with at least one, large groundswell due to impact the state along with generally favourable winds.

(Mick Gullan)

The same swells will then move east towards South Australian and Victoria, though windows of clean conditions will be somewhat more limited.

Now let's take a more comprehensive look around the states.

Firstly, New South Wales and for the most part it appears that Christmas will be spoiled by onshore winds, generally from the southern quadrant, with periods of rain, however there will be moderate levels of southerly swell.

That's the outlook for the southern and central NSW region, with northern NSW likely to see different conditions: Winds will be mixed and the swell will be smaller - the south swell won't penetrate that far north, while only marginal levels of north-east swell are expected.

The south swell energy will be generated by back to back frontal systems entering the southern Tasman Sea through the week, generating ebbs and pulses of southerly swell peaking around the head-high range on Tuesday the 23rd, with a possible slightly bigger increase through Thursday and Friday, which is Xmas and Boxing Day.

(Ben Matson)

Meanwhile, Queensland is in for benign surf this festive season with little of the southerly swell reaching that far north, and only low levels of north-east swell on the charts. Surfers north of the Tweed will have to wait for the approach of New Years Eve when energy begins to ramp up.

The Tasmanian East Coast looks the worst of the lot, with the persistent frontal activity being too zonal and north in location to bring any swell. If by chance one of the frontal systems takes a more meridional - north to south - track we could see more size spreading in, but for now a snorkel would be a better present than a surfboard.

Looking at the southern states, and a couple of strong lows forming one after the other in the Southern Ocean later this week are set to produce two, quality long-period groundswells for next week. The first low is due to form around the Heard Island region tomorrow with a great fetch of pre-frontal west-northwest winds set to produce an active sea state. A large, long-period south-west groundswell is expected to be generated by this low, arriving Monday afternoon across the Margaret River region, building rapidly late to the 8-10 foot range before easing back from 8 foot on Tuesday morning.

Strong south-southwest sea breezes will unfortunately greet the building swell on Monday afternoon, yet Tuesday will dawn much cleaner thanks to strong, offshore south-east winds.

A slight delay will see Perth and Mandurah peak on Tuesday morning to 2-3ft. Early winds will be offshore south-east to east, shifting south as the day goes on.

Christmas Eve will also be clean but much smaller as the groundswell continues to fade, then hot and offshore Christmas morning as the swell bottoms out.

Into the afternoon, the forerunners of the next pulse of long-period groundswell are due to arrive, though the low linked to this swell will form further from the Australian mainland, with the swell peaking Friday morning with less size and consistency than the previous swell. Winds also look to swing strong onshore for Boxing Day, bringing cooler conditions and choppy surf.

Moving east, and the same swell impacting Western Australia early week will arrive across South Australia on Tuesday afternoon with a peak due on Christmas Eve - along with Victoria.

The groundswell itself looks moderate to large in size, but some additional close-range energy is due to be added to the mix later Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day, generated by a secondary frontal system firing up on the back of the swell generating low through Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

(Andy Smyth)

Early indications are for the Victor Harbor region to come in at 4-6 foot with the Mid Coast coming in either side of 2 foot, with early variable winds on Christmas Eve due to quickly freshen out of the south-west.

SA's South Coast looks to improve from Friday but be best Saturday as winds shift more offshore with slowly easing levels of swell.

For the Victorian Surf Coast, the swell peaks on Christmas Eve looks to come in around the 5-6 foot range, with a further bump in size likely later in the day, holding Christmas morning. The exposed beaches to the east look too big with better options inside protected bays, though small.

Local winds look favourable for the Surf Coast and strong from the west-northwest on Christmas Eve morning, shifting south-west with strength through the day, with Christmas Day seeing generally strong south-west breezes, with an outside chance of lighter west-northwest winds for a period around dawn on the Surf Coast.

As the swell starts to ease from Boxing Day, lighter south-west breezes should tend locally offshore on the Surf Coast during the morning with north-east offshores favouring more exposed spots on Saturday, though possibly still sizey.

(Craig Brokensha)

Finally, moving onto Tasmania’s South Arm, the outlook is tiny ahead of the late increase in west-southwest groundswell Tuesday, with a peak expected through Christmas Eve. 

The swell-generating fetch will mostly fall within Storm Bay’s western swell window, resulting in inconsistent but head-high surf across Clifton with offshore breezes.

From Christmas Day onwards the leading global forecast models diverge but we could see strengthening frontal activity spawning right below us, keeping the swell window active, though winds may take a turn for the worse.

Keep an eye on the regional Forecaster Notes over the coming week for a more comprehensive breakdown on what’s in store for Christmas week, while also tune in next week for a further gaze into the New Year.

Comments

Ripper's picture
Ripper's picture
Ripper Friday, 19 Dec 2025 at 1:47pm

Interesting Craig! Santa may turn up for some surfers in NSW on Possibly Tues, Thur/Fri all be it with south winds ( not sou/east??? ). Just wondering if this swell may fill in past the Hunter Curve Craig & if so what type of period are we looking at with this swell event ? Merry Christmas to all & sundry, lets hope Santa & his aquatic chapter deliver the goodies.

Ripper's picture
Ripper's picture
Ripper Friday, 19 Dec 2025 at 1:55pm

Just bread your notes again & yes you are calling for onshores, however maybe offshores early in the day is the usual call before the day heats up around the traps. Ho Ho Ho Ho Ho!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 19 Dec 2025 at 5:58pm

Looking forward to your 2025 Retrospective Craig.

rooftop's picture
rooftop's picture
rooftop Friday, 19 Dec 2025 at 7:58pm

Skunked!

The one Christmas when WA might actually get some swell I'll be in Queensland, where it's unseasonably flat.

Screw you, Santa! You too, Huey! I've been a good boy!

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Saturday, 20 Dec 2025 at 2:39am

Lol. Drive south of Byron, wink wink

smokeydogg's picture
smokeydogg's picture
smokeydogg Friday, 19 Dec 2025 at 9:06pm

Yeeeeeeew Xmas waves in W.A

AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace Saturday, 20 Dec 2025 at 9:48am

SurfCoast, Vic, Shine On You Crazy Diamond , bring it on Xmas Eve fat fella in the red and white clobber. Ho, ho, hi. AW

old-dog's picture
old-dog's picture
old-dog Saturday, 20 Dec 2025 at 1:22pm

Forget swell events, I love days like today, bloody weekend and school holidays, but SN said 1 out of 10, learners only, forget it.
I looked out the window and saw some whitewater on the reefs, headed down to my favorite little low tide reef with low expectations and it's deserted. Had an hour all to myself with mirror glass waist high perfect little shortboard runners, then the seabreeze came up and it was all over. The only other person around was a chick at the next break, her dog kept following her out the back and she had to keep putting it on her log and taking it in.
The mid is a tricky one to call. Thanks SN, for an early Xmas present and Merry Xmas to all.

mr mick's picture
mr mick's picture
mr mick Saturday, 20 Dec 2025 at 7:51pm

Could you please refrain from putting up perfect, unridden waves on a very average forecast, lol. These last couple months have been doing my head in. Thanks for SN for your in-depth forecasts throughout the year. Have a fun & safe holiday period to all.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 22 Dec 2025 at 7:18am

It is torture isn't it! Our pleasure Mr Mick.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 22 Dec 2025 at 7:17am

The swell for the East Coast later in the week has been upgraded with a more robust frontal push into the Tasman Sea. Steve will have an update in his Forecaster Notes today.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 23 Dec 2025 at 12:42pm

Good to see the swell in Margs coming in on forecast, looks a bit slow and small further north though.