Corona Bali Protected - Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

From everyday garbage to a 50 year storm, the Rip Curl Bells rode the extremes. But the CT surfers are now on their way to Indonesia, a place known for being moderate. It's consistent, warm, and rarely too big.

The Keramas Bali Pro kicks off next Monday and while there are no large swells forecast through the period, we should see fun contestable days from day one, but more so towards the end of the first week.

The day before the contest kicks off - Sunday 12th - a large, long-period southwest groundswell will offer 6ft+ warm up waves, though they'll ease into Monday, with sets from 4-5ft. It's very likely to be a competition day.

The surf will ease further into Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in lay days, while from Thursday the first in a series of long-period S/SW groundswell pulses are due to fill in, owing to an active Southern Ocean storm track between Heard Island and Western Australia (see image below).

A progression of strong polar fronts should produce fun swells from a more favourable southerly angle, which will get into the east side of Bali, where Keramas is located.

Each pulse at this stage looks to come in around 4-5ft or so on the favourable pushes of the tide, and we'll see persistent E/SE trades through the event window, though as always Keramas will have light offshore winds each morning -  a phenomenon created by local downslope winds.

The first swell increase is expected on Thursday, building to 4-5ft and then easing Friday ahead of a long-period swell due Saturday afternoon and Sunday. From here we'll be looking at easing surf ahead of some possible large long-period SW groundswell at the end of the period.

So, from this vantage point it appears the first half of the Keramas Bali Pro will get exactly what's expected: rippable, head high to occasionally double-overhead waves, with offshore mornings. No surprises and no freakish weather.

We'll provide more updates as we get closer to the event.

Keramas 16 Day Surf Forecast Graph
Keramas 16 Day Surf Forecast Graph

Comments

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 7 May 2019 at 7:19pm

Cheers Craig. Sounds pretty good. Italo will be tough to beat.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 7 May 2019 at 7:24pm

The Panda has been destroying Keramas for the last week

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Tuesday, 7 May 2019 at 8:30pm

Panda destroying Keramas are you kidding with what his one trick hack.
For a pro surfer the guy is highly overrated kook and how he is on the tour
is beyond me I ask the question does he pay them off or is he Brazilian mafia?

IF im not surfing im racing

spelled3's picture
spelled3's picture
spelled3 commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 9:42am

The guy won a CT, he's not a kook. If he was an Aussie we'd all be talking up his power game.

OllieB's picture
OllieB's picture
OllieB commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 3:59pm

Could not agree more - He looked completely off balance at Bells, barely timing one turn.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Tuesday, 7 May 2019 at 9:09pm

No freakish weather.
that felt like a little dig at us Aussie Mexicans.

JosephStalin's picture
JosephStalin's picture
JosephStalin commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 7:51am

What is protected?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 7:53am

No idea..

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 8:49am

Think it something to do with protecting Bali from plastics and environmental damage?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 8:50am

Yeah I'd have to agree.

gunther's picture
gunther's picture
gunther commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 11:07am

Protecting tourists from the seeing the harsh realities of life in a third world country by plying them with alcohol?

Common Tata's picture
Common Tata's picture
Common Tata commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 8:45am

Sounds just like the Goldie

Terminal's picture
Terminal's picture
Terminal commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 6:23pm

.

Common Tata's picture
Common Tata's picture
Common Tata commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 9:03am

Yep, plastics, we run a bamboo straw exchange program at Keramas and throughout Bali with a bunch of local school kids were we give bamboo straws to the local warungs in exchange for there plastic straw packs free. Included are brushes and bio soap to clean them. Many warungs at Keramas are involved in our program but amazingly a few are still are not interested because they have to wash them. We will be there at the comp handing out bamboo straws to the public free. In an effort to help keep our oceans clean as surfers we should all travel with our own reusable straws and water bottles and refuse any business that uses plastic single use straws. The Indo government banned the use plastic bags and straws from the 1st Jan this year, however it is not policed and only some businesses are complying. Lets all clean up the ocean and make some waves.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 6:14pm

Hopefully John John doesn’t have any mental scars after injuring his knee there last year

eel's picture
eel's picture
eel commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 6:23pm

Doubt it. Pretty sure he injured it at a nearby beachy going for ridiculous punts, not Keramas.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Thursday, 9 May 2019 at 1:57pm

Hope it doesn't end up as an air contest. Poo stance pump, lift off land, the wave is too good to do that to it.

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo commented Thursday, 9 May 2019 at 3:16pm

Will be unless its 4-5ft.

dan@shoreline's picture
dan@shoreline's picture
[email protected] commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 6:15pm

How does that map produce swell for indo? Doesnt seem to be wind/fetch in the right direction, just curious.

dan@shoreline's picture
dan@shoreline's picture
[email protected] commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 6:19pm

Extreme bottom lefthand? Go john john, and how about medina at bells? Enjoying watching the south americans in the big stuff lately

Tiberious1's picture
Tiberious1's picture
Tiberious1 commented Sunday, 12 May 2019 at 2:19pm

Good luck to all surfers in Bali and have a great contest

Ash's picture
Ash's picture
Ash commented Sunday, 12 May 2019 at 4:58pm

Went and had a coffee at the contest site this morning, stayed for an hour and took it all in. You'd want to be really quick in the line up, how to avoid being run over is more luck than skill. An hour was enough, but entertaining.