If you want to surf big waves.......don't wait!
Just to bring it to your attention.
So, the inference is...?
inc. ghouse gas -> zonal jetsream -> decr. ECLs/Tasman Lows -> decr. in time with Hsig over 2(?)m?
Supports what is said about point 1 (1. Global warming causes more extreme weather and thus cold waves) in the article Stu posted http://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2014/01/16/us-cold-wave-i... ,
in that it is the opposite of "1. Global warming causes more extreme weather and thus cold waves"
I recall previous studies that have shown there'll be less but stronger storm events into the future.
So this article seems in conflict with this.
3rd last paragraph - "Dowdy says while storm waves may become rarer in the future, "it is possible the storms that do occur [in the future] could become more intense"."
Anyway what I think really needs to be made clear here is...
He seems to be refering to storms as events; counted as discrete integers.
But wave buoys, more or less, produce continuous data.
Is there some kind of apples/oranges comparison mistake here?
Maybe I'll try read the article properly tomorrow
If you set a threshold for a "swell event" you can do some analytical break downs.. I haven't had a chance to read the article yet, but will do tomorrow.
A misleading surf angle. The East Coast has surfable waves most days, yet ECLs occur a handful of times per year.
I dislike these kinds of articles. Most of the assumptions re: surfers are incorrect, but the MSM runs with the angle and exaggerates them even further.
Look if you want clarification on these matters refer to Wikipedia; that's what our Federal Environment Minister would do.
hehe nice one floyd :) how does it fit with the IPCC predictions that -
"There is evidence from modelling studies that future tropical cyclones could become more severe, with greater wind speeds and more intense precipitation. Studies suggest that such changes may already be underway; there are indications that the average number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year has increased over the past 30 years. Some modelling studies have projected a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones globally due to the increased stability of the tropical troposphere in a warmer climate, characterised by fewer weak storms and greater numbers of intense storms. A number of modelling studies have also projected a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms outside the tropics, with a tendency towards more extreme wind events and higher ocean waves in several regions in association with those deepened cyclones. Models also project a poleward shift of storm tracks in both hemispheres by several degrees of latitude."
silicun the IPCC quote is from 2007 so there has been a lot more research since then. Is this study definitive? Probably not but it reminds us that climate change is occurring now and, one way or another, will continue to impact surfing (and every other aspect of our lives) into the distant future.
I dont think that the IPCC quote necessarily contradicts the study. The reason I asked is that I had trouble making head or tale out of the IPCC quote and one of you guys with a little better understanding of meteorology may be able to decipher it in relation to this study? My basic understanding, or what I keep hearing, is that there will be more frequent and more severe weather events but neither the study you presented BB nor the IPCC quote that I put up suggests that it is that simple.