Drought conditions in South Oz

barley's picture
barley started the topic in Friday, 29 Jun 2018 at 11:44pm

70% at least of farming communities this season are in drought..my ave. Rainfall is 12-13inches, so far this year I've had 4. And I am a lucky one!
Yet no talk of el nino either active or forming.
Neutral phase continues.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 30 Jun 2018 at 6:47am

Actually, we're in an El Nino watch:

"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, latest model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicates that the chance of El Niño forming in spring has increased. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means that the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2018 is approximately 50%; double the normal chance."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Saturday, 30 Jun 2018 at 7:37am

Despite the weak La Nina last year you could argue we've been in a an El Nino phase with rainfall deficits since the last big La Nina broke down in 2012.

spuddyjack's picture
spuddyjack's picture
spuddyjack commented Saturday, 30 Jun 2018 at 2:32pm

Pray, meditate, chant for rain in SA. Driest state in this dry, dry, driest of desert nations. Rumour had it some years back, when SA was in the throes of drought and building a desal plant, that the Howard Government had drawn up covert plans to deal with the possible need to evacuate large swathes of the state population . . . notwithstanding the fragility of the Murray-Darling system exposed to a nefarious cast of water thieves, corrupt managers and avaricious land barons pushing their depraved agendas.

Stay salty

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Saturday, 30 Jun 2018 at 5:59pm

No problem down here in the south of the state. Mt gambier 94.2mm this month..... Mean June average is 84.1mm

Sheepdog

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave commented Saturday, 30 Jun 2018 at 8:21pm

good news mate. saints to make the eight. that would be great. it's never too late.

davetherave

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Saturday, 30 Jun 2018 at 10:10pm

Mathematically impossible, Biscuit boy...

Sheepdog

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave commented Sunday, 1 Jul 2018 at 1:11am

bloody maths, bit like the odds of the hawkies winning the flag, always next year johnny barker.

davetherave

spuddyjack's picture
spuddyjack's picture
spuddyjack commented Sunday, 1 Jul 2018 at 2:49pm

Nothing like good old piss-taking philistinism to subvert the actual header topic - yep, footy predictions will do it!

Stay salty

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Sunday, 1 Jul 2018 at 5:19pm

As does observing and commenting about the "good old piss-taking philistinism to subvert the actual header topic".
Carry on.........

Sheepdog

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Wednesday, 8 Aug 2018 at 11:55pm

Thanks barley and ben .
A fair bit of rain fell to break the drought.
Was wondering what phase it was, along with negative sam.

From thermalbens bom link :
"El Niño WATCH continues
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming weeks, and El Niño likely to develop in spring. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.

Oceanic ENSO indicators remain neutral. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remains warmer than average. Likewise, the water below the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also cooled recently, but remains warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), remain neutral.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate warming of the tropical Pacific is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Five of eight models indicate El Niño levels will be reached in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.

During El Niño, winter-spring rainfall in eastern Australian is typically below average while daytime temperatures are typically warmer than average in the south.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of six international climate models indicate a positive IOD event may develop, with a fourth model close to meeting thresholds. A positive IOD event typically reduces winter–spring rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies."