House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

Robwilliams's picture
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Robwilliams Thursday, 13 Oct 2022 at 12:09pm

Hope you are well campbell and been finding a few out of the way sessions. It's exactly as you describe.

I can only wonder what stems from doggy deals at the various effected communities expense. They have carved the fuck out it. And have changed pristine areas irreversibly. I understand the need for development but sometimes you got to ask if its in a communities best interest or if it has been just signed through for a financial benefit for a select few.

Did people vote for more community transparency at the last election? I think they did but until we implement it, our communities and environments are at the mercy of possible corruption. They have shown us time and time again they don't mind exploiting. How much are we going to tolerate before we call the spade a spade? It's visible obvious from what has been passed through and allowed to happen. Where are the corrupt pricks now? Anserw sitting comfortably at the expense to us all.

couple of recent examples
abc newshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-13/qld-ipswich-council-tully-paul-pi...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/nt-icac-report/101526484?utm_camp...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/nt-icac-commissioner-video-concer...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/victoria-corruption-probes-legal-...

sadly the list is endless, they continue to protect their best interests from within. It's what they are good at. Politricks.

But they don't, do that, do they

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 14 Oct 2022 at 11:46am

A pretty fcking impressive rally after a decent dump all in one day (overnight) in OS markets after the release of US CPI data. The impressive swing/turnaround/rally after the release of CPI data makes no sense, however this paints a better picture.

https://www.realvision.com/shows/daily-briefing/videos/when-theres-no-on...

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Friday, 14 Oct 2022 at 1:54pm

Trouble

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/bank-of-mum-and-dad-in-troub...

Also, this one will squeeze the market:

'Under the APRA stress test, new home loan applicants must show they can afford monthly repayments at 3 percentage points more than they are applying for, or the bank’s pre-set floor rate (whichever is higher). A floor rate is the minimum rate a borrower will be charged.'

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 14 Oct 2022 at 2:44pm
flollo wrote:

Trouble

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/bank-of-mum-and-dad-in-troub...

Also, this one will squeeze the market:

'Under the APRA stress test, new home loan applicants must show they can afford monthly repayments at 3 percentage points more than they are applying for, or the bank’s pre-set floor rate (whichever is higher). A floor rate is the minimum rate a borrower will be charged.'

Paywall

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flollo Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 9:28am
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
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DudeSweetDudeSweet Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 10:06am

Would you rather have that house with views of Manly or a luxe house at an epic regional spot plus the $20Million difference in your pocket?

flollo's picture
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flollo Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 10:09am

Me? I would live in the bush anytime, even if I drive 2 hours to the beach.

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flollo Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 10:21am

I also have a confession to make: over the years I added SUP and Wingsurfing to my watersports portfolio. This means I can find somewhat acceptable conditions on most days and far from popular locations. I had an epic wing session the other day, completely by myself, with not a living soul in sight. There is no need to squeeze with everyone else, even lakes are an option now.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
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DudeSweetDudeSweet Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 10:56am

Foil boarding is the aquatic equivalent of rollerblading with a Ginsu knife in each hand.

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flollo Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 11:18am

I watch this video when I need a reminder of how good it is...

donweather's picture
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donweather Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 1:07pm
flollo wrote:

I watch this video when I need a reminder of how good it is...

https://youtu.be/fjbW6RjnQ-8

fck that guy has it nailed.

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Roystein Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 6:19pm

I am sure it is way harder than that guy makes it look. Had a first go at windsurfing recently, on the big SUP model, can see the attraction flollo

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RiderJake Wednesday, 19 Oct 2022 at 6:26pm
flollo wrote:

I also have a confession to make: over the years I added SUP and Wingsurfing to my watersports portfolio. This means I can find somewhat acceptable conditions on most days and far from popular locations. I had an epic wing session the other day, completely by myself, with not a living soul in sight. There is no need to squeeze with everyone else, even lakes are an option now.

I always liked surfing alone too, just a girlfriend standing on the shore and sometimes taking pictures with a drone.

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flollo Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 10:38am

Keahi is a legend. Great on kite, wing, SUP, and surf. He makes everything look very stylish and easy. I met him a couple of times. One time we had a SUP session at Makaha, on the tip of long reef at Sydney's northern beaches. It's a very exposed break, a long paddle to get there and it picks up any available swell. A big lineup with a few different take-off zones. So, it's a favorite for the SUP crew (I also windsurfed here, it's a great windsurfing wave spot).

There was a solid swell in the water but it's always tricky to know how big it truly is out there. Once we got out I realised it was way bigger than I thought. I got into a position and a great set was coming my way. I was in a perfect spot and felt really confident taking off. It was going to be 'a wave of the lifetime' but I was celebrating too early. I took off with confidence but this thing was growing on me and I just couldn't get to the bottom of the wave. I pressed hard under my feet but it's just unbelievable how it felt like forever to get there. And unfortunately, as I got to the bottom my nose hit the water and I wiped out. I got absolutely smashed and my leggie broke. Completely disoriented and started losing breath underwater. Eventually, I somehow surfaced but sadly, the next wave was an absolute bomb. I tried to go under as hard as I could but this wave still rolled me around like I was a toothpick and I started losing breath again. It felt like I was under for ages and I barely got out of it. There were another couple of waves that I managed to get through before the situation calmed down. I looked for my board and it was at least 200-300m away. I managed to retrieve it and I paddled back to shore to pick up a new leggie. On my way back I watched Keahi absolutely rip these waves, He was unbelievable. Just a few levels above anyone else. I managed to get a couple of good waves which was a great achievement considering all the challenges. This was 7-8 years ago and I don't even remember how big the actual swell was or which time of the year it was. That set that cleaned me up must have been in the 10ft range as I still remember it as one of the worst wipeouts in my life and I was out in some solid waves since then.

For reference, this is the wave I am talking about. You can see there's a section in the middle that throws quite hard, I think this is where I got smashed. It fattens out after that but the drop is exhilarating.

And also, Keahi broke the news with that bomb at Backdoor a few years back

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stunet Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 10:57am
flollo wrote:

Keahi is a legend. Great on kite, wing, SUP, and surf.

Yep. Humble guy too.

Few years back I snapped a board at Himalayas and didn't have a back up, so I had to sit on the beach waiting for my mates to come in. The downtime gave me an opportunity to really watch the session, which included Keahi on a SUP tearing the place apart. Rather than paddle up the line and be a pest, he'd wait for the wide ones that no-one else could get then drop in as the pack was scrambling.

He was doing this thing where he'd lay the paddle into the wave face on a backside cutty, then quickly change it so the paddle was sort of behind him on the foam bounce.

Impressive move on a 10ft wave, and he did it over and over again.

He also got one of the best waves - if not THE best wave - of the Oma swell at Noosa, while riding a shortboard.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
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DudeSweetDudeSweet Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 11:16am

I’m just off foils cause there’s some utter flog who’s doing his best to spread the word about a spot near me so he can sell more foil equipment. Pretty sure he lives hours away but that doesn’t stop him from telling anyone who’ll listen to get here. Encouraging crowds of dangerous foil mongs who catch every wave that breaks….so good.

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 11:59am

That is shitty behaviour.

Very fortunate with the foil crew I encounter here; courteous, considerate, gives you a ride to save a massive paddle. Also lets out of town guys know when they're not behaving.

Edit: hey flollo. Just watched that Little Makaha video. Why aren't surfers all over that? Big and clean, although not exactly connecting perfectly.

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stunet Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 1:20pm
Island Bay wrote:

Edit: hey flollo. Just watched that Little Makaha video. Why aren't surfers all over that? Big and clean, although not exactly connecting perfectly.

Flollo may have his own take, but my experience, based on chasing it fairly hard during the three years I lived in the area, is that even on clean, consistent swells it remains an extremely unpredictable wave.

Standing on the top of Long Reef during a clean south swell gives you an idea why. As long lines of uniform swell approach the outside of Butterbox, Dontals, and Little Makaha they're broken up and scattered by the underlying bathymetry that forms the distant bommie of the German Bank (and if not the bank itself then the chain of bommies it rests upon).

My favourite LM memory was getting a real long one and on the paddle back out, thinking I was in deep water, no breaking waves within cooee, having a ten footer rear up out of the east on a south swell day.

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flollo Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 2:22pm

Yeah, I agree with that. It's really exposed and picks up all the directions which then break in a different way. A difficult lineup to navigate on a surfboard. Also, there is only small parking on the headland and a long walk down. With a SUP you can paddle from the beach and even surf a couple of options along the way. It's also a lot easier to navigate the lineup. Going from the beach with a surfboard is not really an option. Not to mention the whole shark element, it can feel quite spooky out there. I never think about sharks when I'm on a SUP or a wing as I'm moving all the time. But sitting on a surfboard between sets is a different experience. And I guess you have numerous surfing options on both sides of the headland. It would probably be a different story if this was the only wave in the area.

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donweather Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 2:32pm

Sorry which thread is this?

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donweather Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 2:37pm

Check out NZ at the end. Fcking stupid.

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flollo Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 2:47pm
donweather wrote:

Sorry which thread is this?

Oh c'mon we went a bit off-topic, I'm sure it's nothing dangerous...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 3:52pm
donweather wrote:

Check out NZ at the end. Fcking stupid.

https://twitter.com/wallstreetsilv/status/1582556167682723840

This is super cool.

Anyone know the reason for NZ crazy price growth?

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freeride76 Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 4:23pm

Not enough housing, crazy demand because everyone wants to live there?

gsco's picture
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gsco Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 4:39pm

NZ house prices have nearly identically tracked the money supply:

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 4:40pm

You mean not enough land released.

It would be interesting to see comparisons between the two countries on immigration intake compared to new land released. (

One thing for certain its not pushed by their refugee intake which has never gone higher than just over 1k a year and going back ten years was less than 500 people a year.

It's also interesting because NZ has a fairly even spread of decent sized cities (considering NZ overall pop size) unlike Australia where Melb & Sydney are the big focus, so its surprising in that way too, as you would think that would take pressure off crazy prices, where's average prices in Melb & Sydney would push up the average price for the whole of Australia.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 4:49pm

Looks like all the usual suspects - low interest rates, policies creating a new investor class, levels of population growth amongst the highest in the OECD...

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 5:39pm
gsco wrote:

NZ house prices have nearly identically tracked the money supply:

Okay cool, well that makes complete sense.

So this is controlled by central bank to control economical growth and affects things like interest rates yeah?

So why would they allow things to take off so much compared to other countries, obviously the plus is healthy growing economy, but seems kind of risky and safer to have just eased things back a bit and keep more inline with other countries.

Does this put NZ at more of a risk now for inflation and not being able to control inflation, compared to other countries?

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gsco Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 6:45pm

Yes the money supply is controlled by central banks.

The bigger picture is that the same scenario - low interest rates, large increases in the money supply, and subsequent asset price bubbles and inflation - has happened in pretty well all developed nations post GFC. I'm not sure about the exact, unique reasons for NZ's property bubble leading the charge but the general trend is the same across the planet.

It's basically all due to the general political-economic policy framework that has generally been followed by most developed nations - particularly UK, Aus, Can, NZ, US - for decades now, which is based on a synthesis of:
- more neoliberal style political ideology: relatively small governments and low taxes, austerity and attempts at cyclicly balanced budgets, allowing the market to drive economic growth, and using monetary policy as the main tool to manage the economy and business cycle via inflation targeting.
- the modern macroeconomic policy orthodoxy called the new neoclassical synthesis, which resulted in, among other things, the inflation targeting role of central banks whereby monetary policy is aimed basically exclusively at controlling inflation.

indo-dreaming wrote:

So why would they allow things to take off so much

I think the answer is they just didn't really know what do and how to prevent it within this political-economic policy framework, and it just got out of control. This wiki page on the NZ property bubble contains a lot of discussion about attempts to prevent the bubble, all to no avail.

A new political-economic ideology seems needed.

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 6:47pm
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Fliplid Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 7:40pm

Don’t worry vj, China’s onto it.

https://johnmenadue.com/the-changing-world-order-with-declining-western-...

On a side note, seeing the graph showing the reducing amount of US bonds held by China (that gsco put up awhile back) made me wonder, at what level will it be ‘game on’

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sypkan Thursday, 20 Oct 2022 at 7:46pm

"I'm not sure about the exact, unique reasons for NZ's property bubble leading the charge but the general trend is the same across the planet."

bunkers for billionaires perhaps?

and what you said...

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 12:29am

& yes there it is, fall of a government. Members are not impressed. All started by looney tunes stimulus proposals into 10% inflation.

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sypkan Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 12:49am

ol' boris ain't looking so bad after all

clever line

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gsco Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 8:10am

Truss...what can you say...apart from The Economist magazine will have to quickly change its most recent cover:

Re property prices, UBS recently published their global real estate bubble index, which has the following interesting ranking:

Also, I find it very interesting that the monetary policy objectives of the US Fed are written in law - in the Federal Reserve Act - as being to increase the money supply in line with the productive capacity of the economy:

Yet this is what they did post GFC:

(as did most other developed countries) basically leading to the above property bubbles identified in the UBS report. Warsaw property prices look reasonable...

Australia only lost the money supply plot during covid:

which is ironic given that covid has now been conclusively proven as a complete hoax...

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Nick Bone Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 8:41am
gsco wrote:

which is ironic given that covid has now been conclusively proven as a complete hoax...

In what context was it a hoax?

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blackers Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 8:49am

Truss tried to go the full Thatcher and found that shit doesn't wash any more. Surrounded herself with ideologues with no dissenting voices, yet the Tory faithful are disappointed with the backflip, despite the markets and most of the general public flipping the bird at her first budget. Bring back Boris and they will be gone forever.

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stunet Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 9:25am
blackers wrote:

Truss tried to go the full Thatcher and found that shit doesn't wash any more. Surrounded herself with ideologues with no dissenting voices, yet the Tory faithful are disappointed with the backflip, despite the markets and most of the general public flipping the bird at her first budget. Bring back Boris and they will be gone forever.

Flollo mentioned it yesterday and I'd said it before too: Western democracies are all out of ideas. This era is similar in so many ways to the early-70s when central banks could no longer control the boom/bust cycle and stagflation had become entrenched.

Back then, the financial institutions that mattered were staffed by economists who only knew the economics of the post-war Long Boom, and stagflation was a language they couldn't speak: they didn't understand it, couldn't respond to it.

It took an out of the box idea formulated in the 1930s at the Chicago School of Economics to release the jam. No working economists had seen free market liberalism or its running mate globalisation in practice, so it took a bold vision and a hell of a lot of faith to dismantle economies that had provided the greatest prosperity in human existence (the Long Boom), even if they'd become unwieldly and uncontrollable.

To varying degrees, Western democracies dismantled their economies - the US and UK went all in, Australia took a more cautious approach, northern Europe were even more circumspect - and the results were felt within a few years with a slowing of the boom/bust cycle and greater general prosperity.

Four decades later it feels, not like the release from a cycle, but a part of a larger one. Neoliberalism is strangling every country that adopted it, however just as we were in the early-70s, no-one in power has a response to it.

Tellingly, the only answer is to 'go with what they know'. Cut taxes, smaller government, more privatisation. There should've been red flags waving when Frydenberg was made Treasurer and he answered a question about his heroes: Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Same goes with Liz Truss modelling herself on the Iron Lady.

Cutting taxes, smaller governments, more privatisation, are the only responses our working economists (and most politicians) know, and masochistically they're only making our problems worse.

Slowly, however, we're all beginning to suspect that either those in power are ideologues who will do nothing else, or they're naive and they know nothing else.

It's gonna take someone with a bold vision to sell a new political idea that rescues Western democracies.

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blackers Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 9:48am

True Stu. Sadly there are a lot, in politics, business and the general population who are wedded to these concepts, and the usual crew keep getting voted back in. I don’t know the answer either, other than it is clearly not Liz Truss. Innate greed and perceived self interest are strong drivers, just look at the torrent of “what’s in it for me?” that comes with any budget/election. They have been sold the same story for decades.

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bonza Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 9:55am

"It's gonna take someone with a bold vision to sell a new political idea that rescues Western democracies."

let's hope it doesn't involve war.

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gsco Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 11:48am

Great comment Stu.

To it I'd add that there's also too many vested interests in the neoliberal political / neoclassical synthesis economic paradigm, namely the already wealthy, landed asset owners.

Not only has their wealth streaked away from the everyday serf masses via asset price bubbles, but a quick look at corporate executive pay/salaries relative to things like worker pay, GDP, etc, shows that a lot of the increase in the money supply has filtered directly through into the salaries of corporate executive elites, in all countries.

Regarding new political and economic visions, has anyone been following some of the output from the Roosevelt Institute, such as this report titled The Emerging Worldview: How New Progressivism Is Moving Beyond Neoliberalism?

They call it "new progressivism" but it's not (entirely) the cringeworthy culture/gender/identity/race etc wars stuff that we see all around us. The Roosevelt Institute seems to actually be talking about some good ideas of economic and political substance.

I remember Australian politics used to be like that, a couple decades ago...but now it seems to be mostly about questions like if there's 72 or 73 genders...

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blackers Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 12:35pm
donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 12:47pm
gsco wrote:

I remember Australian politics used to be like that, a couple decades ago...but now it seems to be mostly about questions like if there's 72 or 73 genders...

Those times of Aussie politics you refer too wouldn't happen to be the Keating/Howard era would they?

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velocityjohnno Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 12:49pm

Interesting emerging worldview report. I can see group 3 "The Economic Transformers" already at work - eg the car or carbon markets; adoption of technology is forced from above via policy, rather than driven by the market (ie everyday people's) wishes. We will go electric, and CO2 free, but there is going to be a lot of mining and diesel going on in the background. The way local councils change the bins of residents - already coming from top-down.

& yes, they include the racial/diversity stuff - if they continue to do so, they will be surprised continually that the working class of non-diverse origins votes against them for someone like Trump. Even though their overall ideas would benefit these people, apart from putting them at the back of the opportunity queue. Imagine having kids now that were 1)of European descent and 2) Male and 3) working class in the new world they want to bring... Point is, they are merely re-branding the insanity of the last decade, it's still there.

Haven't come across anything on mad house/asset prices and how to overcome this, apart from government providing directly mentioned in one of the subgroups.

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flollo Friday, 21 Oct 2022 at 2:07pm

All this discussion proves the fact that no one is fully in control. It's quite contrary to that other thread where people believe that there is a coordinated, master-planned power with the goal of controlling humanity. There is nothing I learned in life that would convince me that this is the case. I worked on some large projects in life and all I'm going to say is that it's painfully hard. It's super hard even when you have enough resources. I can't even imagine someone making decisions on a global scale. If someone is truly out there controlling the world all I'm going to say to them is - good luck!

I believe the path forward needs to involve less ideology. The focus needs to be on speed and implementation. Governments need to be open-minded to respond to the information as it comes in. Here's a small, quick example regarding housing. When we started lockdowns due to covid and banned people from leaving one could safely assume that people will holiday locally. This, of course, led to the explosion of demand for Airbnb-style properties. Imagine if at that moment we did some straightforward taxation changes like removing negative gearing from holiday rental properties. And charing higher council rates for holiday rentals which is what Brisbane is doing now I believe. Our public budgets would be better off. Would this have a negative impact on the demand? Absolutely no, nothing would change. But what did we do? Nothing. Too slow.

Conversely, I also believe there is a time when lowering taxes makes sense. I don't see these things as black and white, I see them as quality responses to particular situations. However, they seem to be ideologically driven and they rotate between electoral cycles regardless of what the conditions are at any given time. And one needs to be agile to deliver within tight timeframes. And this is not an attribute that governments can be proud of.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 12:04am

as the econ stuff ends up in this thread

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theyve-totally-lost-control-yen-puke-s...

"As one veteran trader MSG'd us: "they've totally lost control, The BoJ is f**ked either way here."

He is referring to the fact that while no one is talking about it, The BoJ's YCC scheme has failed with 10Y JGBs now trading above 25bps for over a month."

My late night reading of this is, they can (print and) buy lots of JGB's, raising the price and suppressing the interest rate - but - in a world of exploding yields, their currency then takes a battering. If that happens, as Japan imports pretty much all energy and much materials, everyone from Mitsubishi to Mrs Watanabe cops inflation pretty hard. Does this make sense? Another volatile night overseas, as the rain sets in here.

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DudeSweetDudeSweet Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 5:56am

This should really go in the Daily Good news thread

Holy shit…a win!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-21/scotts-head-development-withdrawn...

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bonza Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 7:08am

Excellent news

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gsco Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 7:44am

Aahhh Japan, the grandaddy of them all in terms of the quantitative easing/yield curve control experiment and massive government debt.

Japan is the under-the-radar ticking time-bomb, the elephant in the room that everyone is absolutely petrified to talk about..!

A little rule of thumb is having government debt larger than 100% of GDP is unwieldy, a no-no. Japan's is >250% of GDP (and the other basket case G20 economies are the US and Italy):


Japan is the country that most experimented with 0% (well negative actually) interest rates and massive quantitative easing (yield curve control to keep all interest rates near 0%) over the decades to try to get its stagnant economy moving again.

It's Japan's central bank that buys most of these Japanese government bonds, and it holds a LOT of them:

The Japanese economy and government are basically already completely bankrupt.

They are literally finished and will no longer exist as a going concern if they start to experience inflation and have to increase interest rates. There is no way at all that the Japanese government can afford to maintain its levels of government debt with higher interest rates.

At the moment the Japanese government and central bank are doing everything they can to keep interest rates low and inflation out of the economy, including the central bank buying massive amounts of government bonds to keep interest rates low:

as well as the govt selling massive amounts of its US government bond holdings and then with the proceeds then buying Yen to hold up the Yen (and keep import prices low, holding out inflation from the economy).

Remember a previous graph I posted a few days ago showing that Japan has the largest holding of US government bonds of all countries. Hence, Japan can keep up this US govt bond selling and Yen buying - in order to hold out inflation - for quite a while since its stock of US bonds is massive.

Japan is hoping that it can keep doing this (i) central bank Japanese govt bond buying, and (ii) US govt bond selling and Yen buying, until the world gets back on top of inflation and global interest rates can fall again.

Japan is basically hoping that they can ride out this whole global inflation episode without experiencing any inflation and thus without having any need to increase interest rates domestically.

If they can't do this then there is a very good chance that the Japanese government will have to default on its bonds.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
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DudeSweetDudeSweet Saturday, 22 Oct 2022 at 7:46am
flollo wrote:

All this discussion proves the fact that no one is fully in control. It's quite contrary to that other thread where people believe that there is a coordinated, master-planned power with the goal of controlling humanity. There is nothing I learned in life that would convince me that this is the case. I worked on some large projects in life and all I'm going to say is that it's painfully hard. It's super hard even when you have enough resources. I can't even imagine someone making decisions on a global scale. If someone is truly out there controlling the world all I'm going to say to them is - good luck!

I believe the path forward needs to involve less ideology. The focus needs to be on speed and implementation. Governments need to be open-minded to respond to the information as it comes in. Here's a small, quick example regarding housing. When we started lockdowns due to covid and banned people from leaving one could safely assume that people will holiday locally. This, of course, led to the explosion of demand for Airbnb-style properties. Imagine if at that moment we did some straightforward taxation changes like removing negative gearing from holiday rental properties. And charing higher council rates for holiday rentals which is what Brisbane is doing now I believe. Our public budgets would be better off. Would this have a negative impact on the demand? Absolutely no, nothing would change. But what did we do? Nothing. Too slow.

Conversely, I also believe there is a time when lowering taxes makes sense. I don't see these things as black and white, I see them as quality responses to particular situations. However, they seem to be ideologically driven and they rotate between electoral cycles regardless of what the conditions are at any given time. And one needs to be agile to deliver within tight timeframes. And this is not an attribute that governments can be proud of.

What?

“All this discussion proves the fact that no one is fully in control. It's quite contrary to that other thread where people believe that there is a coordinated, master-planned power with the goal of controlling humanity. There is nothing I learned in life that would convince me that this is the case. “

In 1922 the British Empire controlled the futures of 480 million people. That represented over a quarter of the worlds population at the time. They also had extreme influence on many other peoples including the Chinese. The British Empire was not controlled by the 40million British citizens at the time. It wasn’t controlled by bakers in Cornwall or Secretaries in Wales. The British Enpire was controlled from the top down by an amazingly few people. Only the top few dozen of the hierarchy could be considered to have serious power over the direction of the Empire. From a few square kilometres in London, the fate of an Empire upon which the sun never set was decided.

A couple of dozen people controlled the fate of a quarter of the world’s population. They could send them to kill or be killed in wars. They could impoverish them through taxes individually r ruin their communities through trade sanctions and bureaucracy.

The Empire was no secret and only one example of the endless ways that control of vast swa5hes of people are exercised by small handfuls of people working in unison to exert that power. Sometimes this power is obvious such as empire, sometimes this power is clandestine or hiding in plain site like the mafia or the CIA. Or Blackstone and Vanguard which control a huge slice of the planet’s wealth. Or the WEF. Too many examples to believe that some still find the proven human tendency towards hierarchical dominance to be an imaginary fantasy of overactive imaginations. It’s all pretty banal stuff really.

But….apparently everything humans do comes down to mismanagement and accident and to believe otherwise is fanciful quasi-religious blindness!

Sure it is.