Entering the climate change era.

I just got word ......Kiribati went underwater at noon yesterday and the Solomons are set to go under before dawn tomorrow.

This time next week we will all be grizzled corpses.

Right, im going out to rape a nun as its anarchy , pestilence and imminent destruction from here on out.

Don't know what the data says but Summer in Vicco has seemed extremely mild been kind of nice though warm but not many of those stinking hot summer days we normally get.

Indo . Travel 100k in from the coast over the divide .. It's been hot ( not extremely ) but apart from a wet patch in Dec. it's been a long dry summer there . Western District of Vic has had one of the driest 9-12 mths in recorded history .
The seas will rise , just no where near as quick as any report is going to indicate . And don't worry we will be inundated with water this year , just the thing is , it'll come from the sky run off the land and pool at our feet , waist , neck etc depending where you live .

BB ... thanks

Indo ... summer in Vicco.

I remember summers that went like this .... mild with increasing daily temperatures to a period of 2-5 days of 30 degree plus temperatures with northerly winds broken on the last day by a "cool change" that would come from the west. The cool change was real with SW winds and thunder storms and lots of rain. After the rain had cleared the next day would be mild and the pattern would repeat itself say over 10 - 14 days.

As a kid our house was built on a clay block and I remember that clay cracking so I could put my hand and arm into it but only maybe 2 or 3 summers, mostly there was enough rain during summer to stop the clay from cracking.

IMO increasingly over the last 10 years but most certainly over the last 2 maybe 4 summers (I keep a surf diary) we get some hot weather in late October/ November (with northerlies) and then a seemingly a endless period of southerlies and SE's that this year has and will extend into March!! That's 5 months of "spring-like" SE and S wind/weather patterns with hot 30 degree plus days. And much of weather is coming from the East!!

On the island you might be getting into the water early and maybe late when the wind is calm but I can't see you having many classic days with northerlies this and the last 2-3 summers. Sure you have some E options but IMO Victorian summer weather for surfing has changed dramatically .... we all may as well move to SE Qld and enjoy the cyclone swells for summer coz nothing much is happening down here.

Sure its milder but its changed .......... I would be interested what other people think about Vicco weather patterns in summer

floyd wrote:

BB ... thanks

Indo ... summer in Vicco.

I remember summers that went like this .... mild with increasing daily temperatures to a period of 2-5 days of 30 degree plus temperatures with northerly winds broken on the last day by a "cool change" that would come from the west. The cool change was real with SW winds and thunder storms and lots of rain. After the rain had cleared the next day would be mild and the pattern would repeat itself say over 10 - 14 days.

As a kid our house was built on a clay block and I remember that clay cracking so I could put my hand and arm into it but only maybe 2 or 3 summers, mostly there was enough rain during summer to stop the clay from cracking.

IMO increasingly over the last 10 years but most certainly over the last 2 maybe 4 summers (I keep a surf diary) we get some hot weather in late October/ November (with northerlies) and then a seemingly a endless period of southerlies and SE's that this year has and will extend into March!! That's 5 months of "spring-like" SE and S wind/weather patterns with hot 30 degree plus days. And much of weather is coming from the East!!

On the island you might be getting into the water early and maybe late when the wind is calm but I can't see you having many classic days with northerlies this and the last 2-3 summers. Sure you have some E options but IMO Victorian summer weather for surfing has changed dramatically .... we all may as well move to SE Qld and enjoy the cyclone swells for summer coz nothing much is happening down here.

Sure its milder but its changed .......... I would be interested what other people think about Vicco weather patterns in summer

Spot on floyd, the Se winds the last few summers have been horrendous.
It's all about hanging out for the all day Autumn offshores, and hopefully decent banks

Pilbara coast has been beautiful and cool until very recently.

Gents, we need to be careful when connecting weather events with climate change. In real terms the time frame is longer than what we feel.

Darn, I get grumpy when I agree with tones ......

Floyd, you been on the juice with Blowie? Tones 'Klaus' Barbie is NEVER agreeable. It's not his remit.

Vos is dus, TT ? U dont agree ? The Colonel is kuminggg …. Ve agree mit ervybody dat agrees mit me.

Tones, are you really Herr Lipp?

Herr Lipp from Mark Laing on Vimeo.

Interesting article, a step change in climate on an El Nino year. Flannery mentions this occurring in 1976 and 1998 via those El Nino episodes.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/02/study_climate_change_...

written by the same guy. now you decide if you believe his moronic hype.

fair enough....I did stick my nose in it.

a particular sentence in his article.... "Keep in mind that it took from the dawn of the industrial age until last October to reach the first 1.0 degree Celsius, and we’ve come as much as an extra 0.4 degrees further in just the last five months. "

I find it very hard to believe that his noted 0.4 degree increase in the last few months is actually relevant to the target long term figures (limits) that climate scientists talk about. what I mean is that he must surely be considering this 0.4 degrees in the wrong context, particularly if we have only achieved 1 degree since the dawn of the industrial age. potentially (likely) he is using short term anomolies to justify his reasoning which is not what climate science is about. he then goes on to talk about how we may well reach our maximum limit of 1.5 degrees by the end of the year at current rates. this is alarmist rubbish and not helpful. his reasoning is that we are now suddenly seeing release of decades of el nino's heat trapped in our oceans. what? so what makes this el nino pattern so important that this has never happened before. I have never seen this sort of claim made before. if I see alternate articles attesting to the same reasoning as he then I am happy to retract my opinions and admit he is right. for now, I think he actually may just be making up his own theories. this is ok, but when hes spruiking all sorts of theories including stuff about ISIS then he loses credibility in my mind. I think his scientific backing is short on technical, and big on theories and hype.

Victoria's desalination plant is about to be turned on for the 1st time ... Vicco's carbon footprint is about to go through the roof!

Better to have water for crops and gardens than pussyfoot around trying not to leave a footprint.

Hako, can you see the irony in your post? Who cares about future generations ay..

If the southern hemi has a very hot summer it seems northen hemi has an extra cold winter. Its almost as though the earth is trying to control the ocean levels. James Lovelock's Gaian theory seems weirdly accurate, even though he agrees with climate change, it just seems odd to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lovelock
I dont believe in Gaian hypothesis by the way, just seems odd that Northern hemi has a colder than usual winter when we have a hotter than normal summer.

Now that the desal plant is built I wonder whether there is a way of using it FOR the environment .... it maybe a hair brain idea but ......... SA needs water but has sun a plenty. So the desal plant pumps water up to the Murray (the pipe line already exists) so that water (strictly for environmental flows and not inefficient irragated farming so get your grubby fingers off it National Party) flows down the Murray giving SA all the water it needs. In return SA produces the solar generated electricity needed to run the desal plant ... its probably a very stupid idea but there must be ways the desal plant can repay its massive cost and carbon footprint to Victorians and the environment.

floyd wrote:

Now that the desal plant is built I wonder whether there is a way of using it FOR the environment .... it maybe a hair brain idea but ......... SA needs water but has sun a plenty. So the desal plant pumps water up to the Murray (the pipe line already exists) so that water (strictly for environmental flows and not inefficient irragated farming so get your grubby fingers off it National Party) flows down the Murray giving SA all the water it needs. In return SA produces the solar generated electricity needed to run the desal plant ... its probably a very stupid idea but there must be ways the desal plant can repay its massive cost and carbon footprint to Victorians and the environment.

Yeah, well at least the Vicco plant is running. The Sydney Desal plant has sat idle for three-and-a-half years and costs the NSW taxpayer $534,246 EVERY SINGLE DAY.

For those without a calculator that's over $640 million dollars.

Craig wrote:

Hako, can you see the irony in your post? Who cares about future generations ay..

If the desal isn't used future generations will be living in a dust bowl. Whether it be for farming or the enviroment, it's better off being used isn't it?

But yeah your right Craig, I used to be a greenie and care about what was going to happen, but since the saving of environment was taken over by big business and I've watched the younger people and they don't seem to care so why should I? I've done more for this planet than most people, I can say when I leave I will not have left a mark on this earth, but your right, I don't care.

Any of you gentleman drank - or tried to live , more specifically - on desal water ?

floyd wrote:

Victoria's desalination plant is about to be turned on for the 1st time ... Vicco's carbon footprint is about to go through the roof!

Guarantee the week they turn it on , it'll start pissing down within a days/ weeks .

floyd wrote:

Now that the desal plant is built I wonder whether there is a way of using it FOR the environment .... it maybe a hair brain idea but ......... SA needs water but has sun a plenty. So the desal plant pumps water up to the Murray (the pipe line already exists) so that water (strictly for environmental flows and not inefficient irragated farming so get your grubby fingers off it National Party) flows down the Murray giving SA all the water it needs. In return SA produces the solar generated electricity needed to run the desal plant ... its probably a very stupid idea but there must be ways the desal plant can repay its massive cost and carbon footprint to Victorians and the environment.

When they built the super pipe they had an option to make it two way . But that was deemed too expensive . Also once it starts , your not supposed to stop it . Food for thought , best they wait till winter .

Blowin , yes i have although i didn't have a choice , and i was in charge of running it . Small island .

Blowin wrote:

Any of you gentleman drank - or tried to live , more specifically - on desal water ?

Couldn't be any worse than the local tap water, which I drink.

Water shortages, but still our governments insist on crazy population growth.

I survived on desal for a while.

It didn't make me any healthier.

Maybe psychosomatic .

Maybe not.

SA has enough water to manage without a desal plant imo, it pisses down in Adelaide most of winter but the run off goes straight into the gulf. It was part of the legacy Rann wanted to leave and a wee boost for his ego but a total waste of time and $. The fact that in the winter the plant has to actually pump water out of happy valley to keep the water level down says it all, another one way highway. A system of underground reservoirs to capture all of that lovely free rain would've done the trick.

you mean reservoirs like this up north?

http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/managing-natural-resources/water-use/wa...

not defending desal plant, that was a gross overreaction, but rann did some good stuff, almost raducal stuff

parts of sa look like they should start summer cropping this year, greener now, when Iit's usually brown and crispy, than it was at start of summer

Yep like that, wouldnt it have made more sense to invest the $2 billion in more reservoirs to make the most of whats already there? Cheaper to run, maintain and with a much longer shelf life. I seem to remember there's one SA council that uses captured run off and the verges, parks and gardens are green all summer. Not sure about Rann, he just seemed very focused on being the man to sign off the desal plant. Anyway it's a moot point, coming from the UK where your surrounded by reservoirs in all shapes and sizes it just seemed odd that a dry part of the world would let fresh water run into the sea then build a desal plant.

Yeah but we have desal plants now all paid for by you and me so lets use them.
Sick of seeing money going down the drain via political games, the only one getting anything out of it is consultants, designers and builders on projects that don't get off the ground or are built and stand idol.

Instead of the desal plant in Vicco the government at the time (labor) could have entered into an agreement with tasmania to pipe water from one of its lakes.

its along time ago now but the details were the water catchment for the tassie lake gets a huge amount of rain each year (metres) , the water goes through a hydro plant before it flows to the sea.

a pipe could have captured the water after it left the hydro and under gravity the water would have flowed to vicco. the distance isn't a problem (longer in europe) and the fact that its under bass straight also not a problem ......... all for a fraction of the build cost of the desal plant and its on-going operational costs not to mention its incredibly low carbon footprint compared to the desal .........

Very costly solutions - desals. Yep once you use them they need to stay on, at least in maintenance mode. Mainly for the membranes used. In Sydney, the Sutherland shire gets to its water at this stage but changes if the dam supply is below 70%.
Southey is right, it tends start raining when these things get used.

floyd wrote:

Instead of the desal plant in Vicco the government at the time (labor) could have entered into an agreement with tasmania to pipe water from one of its lakes.

its along time ago now but the details were the water catchment for the tassie lake gets a huge amount of rain each year (metres) , the water goes through a hydro plant before it flows to the sea.

a pipe could have captured the water after it left the hydro and under gravity the water would have flowed to vicco. the distance isn't a problem (longer in europe) and the fact that its under bass straight also not a problem ......... all for a fraction of the build cost of the desal plant and its on-going operational costs not to mention its incredibly low carbon footprint compared to the desal .........

But if you believe in climate change eventually Tassie will get less rain and wont let any water leave the state as they will need it themselves?

one of the known advantages of desal is that its climate change proof.

happyasS wrote:

one of the known advantages of desal is that its climate change proof.

desal plants have a massive power requirement and in Victoria currently that's coal fired ....... we need desal water because of climate change and the desal plant massively adds to carbon into the atmosphere ...... personally I don't see the logic there

No shortage of coal in Vicco, so it's a win win situation :-)

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu wrote:

No shortage of coal in Vicco, so it's a win win situation :-)

I'm sorry, didn't realise I was dealing with an imbecile.

floyd wrote:

happyasS wrote:

one of the known advantages of desal is that its climate change proof.

desal plants have a massive power requirement and in Victoria currently that's coal fired ....... we need desal water because of climate change and the desal plant massively adds to carbon into the atmosphere ...... personally I don't see the logic there

very true. desal has a big carbon footprint. its a real conundrum. perhaps future desal can make better use of renewables which would obviously help. but even then there is the brine waste to deal with. to your point about pipeing water, if those sources dry up then perhaps thats the price we have to pay, move on a find alternate sources.

indo made a very good point about population growth. we expect "Science" to solve all problems while we continue populating the earth. we hear claims that the earth can theoretically support 40 or 50 billion people? but why? is this some sort of goal? what end goal is humanity achieving by thinking this way. i hear its all tied up in GDP but it makes no sense to me. this GDP concept of economic growth is completely flawed and the sooner world governments get over it and derive alternative metrics the better.

happyasS wrote:

floyd wrote:

happyasS wrote:

one of the known advantages of desal is that its climate change proof.

desal plants have a massive power requirement and in Victoria currently that's coal fired ....... we need desal water because of climate change and the desal plant massively adds to carbon into the atmosphere ...... personally I don't see the logic there

very true. desal has a big carbon footprint. its a real conundrum. perhaps future desal can make better use of renewables which would obviously help. but even then there is the brine waste to deal with. to your point about pipeing water, if those sources dry up then perhaps thats the price we have to pay, move on a find alternate sources.

indo made a very good point about population growth. we expect "Science" to solve all problems while we continue populating the earth. we hear claims that the earth can theoretically support 40 or 50 billion people? but why? is this some sort of goal? what end goal is humanity achieving by thinking this way. i hear its all tied up in GDP but it makes no sense to me. this GDP concept of economic growth is completely flawed and the sooner world governments get over it and derive alternative metrics the better.

we are on the same page happyasS

Australia should aim to grow its population on a sustainable basis meaning factoring in what the environment and cities and their infrastructure can cope with. Current population growth is just lazy economics, no need to look at productivity or innovation if the country is growing by 500,000 people a year. Both sides of politics are in on the game.

Re: the pipeline, I seem to remember that all the modelling would say the rain over the NW Tassie would continue, even if the rain were to falter 20-50 years down the track at an all up cost of less than $1 billion AUD and next to zero annual operational cost the return on investment would have been huge.

A note on population growth - accepted estimate is 50% growth and to top out at 9.5b - 10b by 2050. Most of that growth is from Africa and a little from Sth America/Asia/ and a tiny bit from Australisia. I believe the Australiasian section is immigration based.

From there population is expected to slowly decrease. This from world bank data I was looking at a year ago.

- Note that a "small" increase in Australia on a global standard is still a big change from current levels, was referencing the global population trends more than local experiences

Also note that the modelling ( excuse me while I have a belly laugh ) said Australia wouldn't hit its current population for another decade - and that modelling was only a few years old.

Apparently unforeseen circumstances altered the outcome.

Who'd have thought that would be possible ?

Unforeseen would be the government balancing its coffers by opening loop holes to rich students/families . And then the thousands of people who have overstayed and paid their way into documents .

I would be suspicious of forecasts for one location but a little more lenient with global pop'n stats - birth rates and life expectancy forecasts are a little more robust than immigration policy for one country.

floyd wrote:

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu wrote:

No shortage of coal in Vicco, so it's a win win situation :-)

I'm sorry, didn't realise I was dealing with an imbecile.

Mhhh..... calling me names doesn't really strengthen your position, Have you had more than 2 children to one woman or 2 children with 2 different partners? If you have you've done more damage to the environment by adding to the world population than me with my couldn't give a shit about it attitude.