tropical cyclone in qld in july

barley's picture
barley started the topic in Tuesday, 30 Jun 2015 at 12:50pm

Has this ever happened before?..could be about to!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 30 Jun 2015 at 1:08pm

It is unusual to see significant (i.e. broadscale) tropical systems across the South Pacific at this time of year, however even if we see something materialise up in the Solomon Islands over the coming days, it's extremely unlikely that it'll make it anywhere near Qld's swell window let alone the Australian mainland.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 30 Jun 2015 at 1:53pm

So unusual in fact that if it becomes a cyclone it will be the first one in July off Qld waters.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-low-north-of-coral-sea-could...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 30 Jun 2015 at 2:01pm

And from JTWC

"THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH."

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9015web.txt

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 6:57am
thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 7:27am

Wow, that's amazing! Welcome, TC Raquel.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 2:07pm

The start of July and I haven't been even cool surfing in Sydney yet. If the water temperature in the Coral Sea is as far out of its usual range as the water off Sydney there could be more to come.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 2:36pm

Perfect for boardies on the Tweed Coast right now; 21-22 degrees.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 4:14pm

thermalben wrote:

Perfect for boardies on the Tweed Coast right now; 21-22 degrees.

Maybe for you southerners Ben!!! For us SE QLD folk those water temps combined with cool mornings means it's springy time for us!!!
thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 4:31pm

Serious? Although, truth be told I am wearing a vest (not for warmth, but because I've got a weird bony thing on my chest and I need some rubber to cushion it). 

But everyone's wearing 3/2 steamers around here.. I don't understand. It's like a bath!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 5:17pm

3/2 plenty warm enough down in Sydney, even too hot when no wind and sun is out. 2mm short-arm still workable if paddling around a lot.

Warm as and over 19deg.

lifesbetterindicktogs's picture
lifesbetterindicktogs's picture
lifesbetterindi... commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 5:52pm

Surfing is not cool

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 6:07pm

guys this system is going to form into a double header spanning the Equator . It is all related to the Impending El Nino and shall be the final WWB that puts the chance of a Strong El Nino into fruition .
As for the still warm water around the east coast , atmospheric conditions following this dual tropical situation will see the atmosphere strongly couple with the SST's especially what is going on in the North Pacific with the PDO . So the next 3-4 mth should see alot of Highs returning to dominate the Australian mainland .
Now the water temps will drop , BUT come Dec/ Jan the bounce back from such a strong El Nino shall proceed and we will definitely see increased storm activity and potential wide spread flooding next year . As long as the Indian Ocean stays positive in general SST anom's ( not specifically IOD ) then this coupling will perhaps make 2011 look like a passing shower . TWT

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 9:44pm

Already an el nino if you ask me

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2015 at 9:49pm

Barley , it's been borderline weak up until this next phase .
( didn't you guys have some rain up in the Nthn Ag region of SA just last week ? )
We are talking weeks of blocking highs coming up .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

bondisteve's picture
bondisteve's picture
bondisteve commented Thursday, 2 Jul 2015 at 11:19am

Well...well...what do we have here!
A Tropical Cyclone off the Solomon Islands.....hmmm.(Nearly said Marshall Islands....Ha! But there's a storm near there anyway ....so....?)
Let's see....Tropical Cyclones are mostly associated with warm water. Very possibly very warm water for this time of year also....hmmm.
Unusually warm water in the Western Pacific...let's see. That would conflict with the El Nino predictions partly based on water temp samples taken from marine engine cooling intakes...hmmm.
And it's still dry as a camels crotch in Californ...i....a.....hmmmm.
This wouldn't be another incorrect prediction! Surely....!
Maybe it's time to look into the possibility of a Global cooling scenario. That is before we lose to much more money in incorrect predictions.
And maybe another good story for -CO2 production.
Hmmmm.

bondisteve

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Thursday, 2 Jul 2015 at 1:00pm

thermalben wrote:

Perfect for boardies on the Tweed Coast right now; 21-22 degrees.


I surfed the SC this morning and the water was fecking freezing!!! I froze in a springy. Knees were numb by the time I got out.

No way water temps were 21-22 deg inshore up there!!!!

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley commented Thursday, 2 Jul 2015 at 3:07pm

Is anyone gettin swell out of that thing?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 2 Jul 2015 at 3:10pm

Not significant, Solomons and then PNG off the south-western flank of it.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Friday, 3 Jul 2015 at 5:27pm

Hey Craig and Ben. A heads up on ya forecast; you guys had 3-4ft surf. Tonga. 1.5ft on the WNW facing part of the west coast, probably a bit more N in the wind during the day too; fruity system but. Didn't get to check any magnets but the bombie you can see offshore was noticeably large, looking from ashore!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 3 Jul 2015 at 5:43pm

Hang on, so 1.5ft at the coast but "noticeably large" on the bombie? Doesn't quite make sense.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Friday, 3 Jul 2015 at 6:10pm

Yeah, as in, I can see action out there, but it's several kms away... In other words I don't think 3-4 is an over call for exposed coast/ swell magnets, cos I'd judge it to be fairly large on an offshore bombie you can see from the coast

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 4 Jul 2015 at 5:56am

Ahh cool. Yeah Tonga is notoriously fickle. 

Checked out the data - models had 2.3m of S/SW swell at 15.3 seconds yesterday lunchtime. I presume the 3-4ft estimate was a considerable size shaving from a well-aligned coast due to the near-obtuse angle the swell was estimated to be across that particular coast (this is factored into our surf height equations).

So, I would expect under those kinds of conditions that an offshore bombie with no obstructions within the swell path would have been considerably bigger than 3-4ft. 

Interesting nevetheless - we haven't had much verification of our swell model from Tonga so every little bit helps.

bondisteve's picture
bondisteve's picture
bondisteve commented Saturday, 4 Jul 2015 at 9:56pm

donweather wrote: So unusual in fact that if it becomes a cyclone it will be the first one in July off Qld waters.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-low-north-of-coral-sea-could...

Well I hate rain on your parade but that's absolutely incorrect. As appears to be the way around here you should check your facts. July 33,35,54 and 62 and there were many before that.
You guys really need to clean up your acts....eh?

bondisteve

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2015 at 5:35pm

2nd cyclone to form of solomons in a month.never before recorded in august.

floyd's picture
floyd's picture
floyd commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2015 at 5:38pm

Is that the smell of PWCs warming up?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2015 at 6:22pm

Are they the cries of Fanning Parko or Morrison getting bitch slapped for there Antics ?

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2015 at 6:53am