Swellnet over calling wave heights

zane's picture
zane started the topic in Saturday, 28 Sep 2013 at 3:07pm

Anyone noticed this every now and again? For example today (28/9/13) the report for Coollangatta says 2ft and 3ft + at south swell magnets. I went to dbah and kingscliffe today and it was 1-2ft max.I'm not one of those guys that reckons 3ft is overhead either, I call a spade a spade.

I understand forecasts can be off but on the day when you can see it for yourself it should be fairly accurate

Just some feedback for you SW guys

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 3:53pm

So Ben ,

If the water depth is less than the swell wavelength , then the Swell feels the bottom and in most cases more swell energy will be concentrated at the upper column of water depth as passes . Don't shoot me if I'm wrong , but from random memory the average depth in Bass strait is around 80 Metres deep or thats the deeper points ? Or perhaps that was 200 M at its deepest ?
Regardless in the shallows around the Nth side of KI , and sth of Apollo Bay and for arguement sake all along the Surf coast the swell especially when SOLID will line up very visible for miles out to sea . This is where i believe that wind will effect swell . If across its path then redirect , and if directly opposed and even add in there directly in the same direction ( straight onshore ) then wave faces tend to be lower as it either makes the swell crumble in onshore , or over a long distant of Offshores abate the swells energy . Not many other locations have that low Bathymetry AND swell refraction then throw tidal flows into the mix ......
and as for N TAS , you don't believe the windswell acts on and buidls far more easily onttop or with the already agitated WSW sea condition .!? If it was a wind swell it would be good in just strong Northerlies , it needs to act on an already in motion WSW swell . They only get waves ( half decent waves ) when the prefrontal wind is atleast matched by the post frontal winds ( Primary swell producer ) .!?

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 4:00pm

I live in Brissy, so surf anywhere from Rainbow Beach to Yamba.

A couple days out, the SN & CW forecasts rarely differ significantly.

- most cold fronts are forecast to produce 3ft+ at exposed/sth facing locations in Nthn NSW. Then you go to the SEQ forecast and it'll be around 2ft smaller.

- for example. The forecast for last friday was something like...
up to 3ft+ or 4ft (can't exactly remember) Nthn NSW sth facing locations. 2ft SEQ exposed beaches. Strong SE'lys
I stayed nth of the border in the arvo. Got a bunch of surfable waves which were head high (3ft), with rolling outside bombies of maybe up to 5ft. I also bogged more rail than an SUV driver on high tide along Teewah Beach haha.

End of the day, I think it's under called in SEQ, and under reported in SEQ & Nthn NSW

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 5:56pm

southey, your post is a little confusing and I'm not sure quite what you're getting at.

Are you saying that as swells stand up (as they feel the ocean floor) they are more easily able to be be 'redirected' (if wind is perpendicular to swell direction)? Or, if the airstream is headwind or tailwind, that the resulting surf size will be smaller? And that the only time there is a true translation of ocean swell to coastal surf height is when there's no local wind?

I really can't see any logic in that. The first scenario just doesn't have any scientific merit. The second (and third) scenario does have some effects which come into play here (such as energy dissipation due to whitecapping), but the wave models generally handle most of this stuff reasonably well (as is my understanding, as I'm not a computer modeler).

As for your comment "you don't believe the windswell acts on and buidls far more easily onttop or with the already agitated WSW sea condition".

No, a pre-existing sea state is not a necessary requirement for the generation of a quality secondary swell. Sure, it can help however the greatest effects are likely to be seen if the developing wind regime is of the same direction as the swell (although, admittedly I haven't seen much research on this - it's a niche area to surfing, really).

Want to see an example of a punchy 'windswell' generated by a short range, short lived and short length pre-frontal fetch aimed well off centre to the target location, and without a significant pre-existing sea state?

Click here: http://swllnt.com/GzO2qM

This went down in late August, all the result of one day of 30kt northerly winds. Sometimes it's surprising what an average-looking fetch can generate on its own, when the elements all come together.

vic-local_2's picture
vic-local_2's picture
vic-local_2 Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 6:34pm

It's been a busy day in Melbourne and I've just had a quick look at the cams for torquay and JJ. Looks 3-4ft to me late in the day. This morning the cliff view was 2-3ft. Another SN overcall.
Considering the swell was very west and the offshore was really howling this isn't a surprise. Perhaps it's time to put up that hand and say, "Vic Local was right. Waves rarely build under a howling offshore, and it wasn't as big as we expected. Maybe if I listened to Vic Local more, I might get the gig of Rip Curl forecaster again"

floyd's picture
floyd's picture
floyd Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 7:10pm

ZZZZzzzzzzzzz

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 8:06pm

Southey, you're close on that first statement "If the water depth is less than the swell wavelength , then the Swell feels the bottom"

It's actually when the water depth is less than half the wavelength. Ie if the wavelength is 400m, the waves will start feeling the bottom at 200m.

And regarding this comment "for arguement sake all along the Surf coast the swell especially when SOLID will line up very visible for miles out to sea . This is where i believe that wind will effect swell . If across its path then redirect , and if directly opposed and even add in there directly in the same direction"

While the swell is starting to 'feel' the bottom the energy is compressed some-what making the waves standup more but the wind is only acting on the surface layer, and the energy further below in the remaining water column would be orders of magnitude greater than that being affected at the surface.

So there's no way wind can change the swell direction, only local bathymetry (ocean floor) and tidal influences can do this as Ben stated.

What you really see is cross-hatching of swells which pass through each other effectively unaffected.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 8:24pm

Jeez VL, isn't it a little early to be playing your trump card? Have you been waiting all along just for that? Funny thing is your RC Pro jibe is way off the mark. But hey! Must be fun speculating from the sidelines.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 8:44pm

Ben I'm pretty sure Whips wave wasn't produced by a less than 100 Km long fetch .
Besides , that was coming out of deep water .

Your response pretty much nailed what i was trying to postulate , except i was mainly talking about Bass Strait . And the reason two spots like Gunnamatta and beaches outside of Bass Strait that face the exact same direction will have fluctuating swell height differences day to day even when the Swell direction is a mute point . ie : ruler straight SW ( 225 / or even -220 deg ).
Wind matters in shallow bathymetry and large tidal flow regions , but also to a lesser extent the lattitude [ just above the swell train rich roaring 40's ] .
To me its simple , in that the raw data models are only good for open ocean / deep water . And i'm not talking about your own models , but i would suggest your models maybe also missing a few ingredients in this neck of the woods .

Finally I'm not having a go at your forecasts ,
A: i rarely look at them , B: most people i know who are into looking for ideal conditions ( or are picky on when they spend their quality time searching for that ) only tend to look at the Synoptics ( old school ) ....

One thing i think Models have struggled with and maybe some forecasters , is the West coast of Tassie and similar west facing coastlines south of 30 Deg Sth . The Fetch is so long and straight inline with the predominant storm path that sometimes a swell maybe the resultant of 3 or 4 storm swell trains that can and sometimes co-join . If a swell of higher period catches up to swell of lesser period then it can absorb its energy ?. Only the Southern Ocean can produce this with a near clear path right around the globe of Fetch .
Then in this case I'm not sure how the Models would handle it .
The other thing that VL touched on is the Southern Ocean storm track is very cyclical maybe from influence of the LWT , and more than likely the MJO and its influence of troughs re entering the Subtropical region , down from and away from equatorial and Tropical regions . The ACW is another influence in its near 7 year cycle , at the moment the SST's patterns influenced by it can't be forecast , but there are cycles that can be gleaned from it . The day i fully understand that , is the day i'll be happy and quiet .

So Ben , I'm searching for answers off you " traditionally learned " individuals , not trying to convince you . Theories can only be defined if they are discussed . A quality example is the topic of Pt Nepean Buoy and Tide /Swell direction .

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 at 9:00pm

Craig ,

Two years ago when i first started banging on about Tidal influences on swell refraction you and Ben were convinced i was talking Martian .!? Atleast someone ( and i apologise if it wasn't you guys ) in these walls flat out said it was heresy .

All water dynamic testing of swell and bathymetrics has been taken part in controlled " pool / tank " type testing /experiments . I believe that with magnitude of scale and add tidal flow at various angles to the swell direction that the results may differ . Because i know with twenty years of close observations that something is a miss . I can almost guarantee that on days that Gunna is flat and there is howling Northerly that the swell will be bigger elsewhere and not necessarily further west .
The other thing that is noticeable is that with larger heights and larger periods the difference in swell height at same facing locations with differing offshore wind strengths that there is definitely a difference in strength and height of waves .

In this regard then the further west that place is in relation to the other ( ie : closer to deep water and also having not travelled as far " compressed or feeling the bottom " whilst being subjected to both opposing wind plus following tidal flow for a longer period of time and literal travel length . Then there are some regular and obvious examples where this takes place in this region . Note that many MP locals note that beyond 10 ft that coast doesn't get any bigger just more " stacked " or consistant . Elsewhere the sky is the limit and irregularity in the same swell can lead to frightening surprise sets .... Case closed , [ I'm not saying anymore ]

Greg Webber obviously had a handle on this when he started pushing his foil inducing waves into a opposing current .

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 7:28am

Having grown up in vicco (Phillip island) as a real young grom then moving to NW tassie for my latter teen years, then back to the Island as soon as i was old enough to leave home, this is a real interesting read, all these things talked about i have seen/observed.

Back when i was a grommet in Tassie on the North west coast, like many grommets surfing was everything but the coast is one of the most fickle coast in Australia.

I must note it was in another time, before internet etc, i think we even got the Melbourne papers a day late, so we had to basically learn to read synoptic charts from the ABC weather at night to get a grip on when there would be waves or constantly ring the boating forecast.

We basically got swell from a few sources.

1. Short period wind swell from winds from NWW to NEE
2. East ground swells, very small window between vic and Tassie/flinders island (extremely rare)
3. West-North west groundswells from huge west swells that wrap in and hit certain bits of coast/reefs

I know there shouldn't be, but i swear there was a fourth

4. Many days it would be flat but there was swell on the horizon, big lumps looking like they were going past if it went onshore NW not even that strong a few hours latter it would pick up real fast, especially with an incoming tide and seemed to be more than just wind swell onshore but proper lines?

While other times it could blow strong NW for even days and it might only get to a foot of wind swell, i guess that was because it may have been blowing strong in the local area, but out in bass strait may not have been blowing strong enough over a long enough amount of water.

In regard to ground swells they were crazy things, one reef or a few reefs could have a good sized wave (long wait between sets) while whole areas of coast where almost flat, and you would have crazy events where there would be a nice sized set then nothing for half an hour or hour or it could be tiny then suddenly a good sized set would hit, tide was a huge influence but im sure pulses in size and slight changes in direction and period where also huge factors, although back then that was beyond our knowledge.

Amazing piece of coast though possibly hundreds of reefs some world class, but many extremely fickle only showing quality once or twice a year.

In regards to wind any offshore would kill a wind swell within hours groundswells that hit certain reefs could still build with a decent offshore, offshore being SW-W with most big swells having a SW-W-NW wind with them and if it was NW wind we would have solid onshore waves, although those swells strangely enough hit the NW exposed beaches more than the reefs while the beaches were almost flat on W-NW groundswells....very weird coast.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 8:22am

southey, in context of this dicussion, Whippy's wave was absolutely generated by a windswell (albeit a strong one). Don't worry, we were gobsmacked when the photo arrived here, however it's not a one-off as we've seen similar results from similar weather system in recent years.

As for all of your other points - unfortunately, I don't have the time to address the all one by one right (again, I'm still a little confused as to where they all overlap).

However I think it's worth pointing out that Craig and I are surfers first, scientists second (in reference to you calling us 'traditionally learned'). I'd been surfing for fifteen years before I went to university, and I applied the accompanying scientific rigor to my personal surfing experience. This is a different approach to a non-surfer who studies met/ocean at uni and then postulates about the likely effects of tides/winds/swells/bathy data on surf conditions ('surf forecasting' wasn't a part in my uni curriculum, and even though it's popping up in some areas now, it seems not to be undertaken from a surfer's perspective).

derra83's picture
derra83's picture
derra83 Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 8:47am

It looks like Vic Local got what he came here for.

"Maybe if I listened to Vic Local more, I might get the gig of Rip Curl forecaster again"

Shame it's more dithering than withering.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 5:48pm

Ben ,

I refering mainly that Whips wave most definitely came from a wind swell , but surely that was a cut off system where winds rotated over the same spot creating a longer fetch . And if not , I'm not convinced the fetch of which would be less than 100kms distance . And further from my extrapolation involving the shallow waters of Bass Strait his wave was traveling out of Deep water .
Speaking of wind swells , the 1998 Syd - Hob , Bass strait weather bomb was a classic example of a micro cut off . That tiny little cut off , created havoc where i was surfing on boxing day / or the day after ???? . So I'm not anti windswell .!

As for me pointing out your credentials , it had nothing to do with Surfing . I merely pointing out that you had indeed earned some sort of diploma ontop of years of leg work as a surfer . Its just that as a tradie , i don't wield much clout in the scientific stakes , yes my job does entail the use of Physics . But at the end of the day without some from of paper work , opinions are just that . Its also bleedingly obvious when someone like myself try's to describe something that they have not been taught , but only barely learnt . There is a severe inability to convey to others ones message or hypothesis . In this schooled individuals are the real deal . And thats why I throw things up here to get analysed , perhaps better explained by smarter and better educated individuals like yourself and Craig .
But don't forget the little people , once you've ruled the world ;-)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 7:16pm

Haha.. all good southey. I honestly love the dialogue between everyone, it's one of the reasons I started Swellnet - to talk about winds, weather and ocean phenomena in the hope of learning more and building the knowledge bank.

But more importantly I love hearing new theories that are borne from years of personal experience and observation. This can't be taught in university lecture rooms - it has to be experienced in person over the course of years and decades.

I had the pleasure (when working as a climate research scientist in Adelaide, just after I finished Uni) of speaking with farmers across the state about their personal data collections, theories of rainfall patterns and climate triggers, and other stuff like that. They've got a unique slant on weather that can't always be modeled by super computers... and a lot of these characteristics are apparent in the surf too.

So bring on all of the wild ideas about what generated and influences the waves we surf.. but just try to keep your formatting a little easier to read! :D

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 7:42pm

Ha Ha classic Southey.

Ive enjoyed reading this thread, very interesting. I think its great to see different opinions from all walks of life.
Down those ways in Vic and the Bass Straight, there sounds like a lot of varying parameters that dictate size, swell direction etc, etc.

I still feel that with all the given information from buoys, computer modelling, science, physics even Stephen Hawkins dimension theory? "Mother Nature" has this weird way of saying to us, you will never figure me out totally, cause I'm always changing.

salt's picture
salt's picture
salt Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 7:53pm

Who would have thought, a drummer that has a brain. Even if he did most of the singing. Love this thread, love your work Ben.
O

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 3 Oct 2013 at 8:44pm

@ wellymon ,pm sent.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:24pm

Actually ben, VL was spot on with his forecast for today.
Few clean one earlier, totally junked out by ten, half the size and super clean by three.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:32pm

I'd be very weary? of anyone that uses the words EPIC and Jan Juc in one sentence .....

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:33pm

Just had a look at the link of the Torquay surf report, and believe me ben that IS over call, junky 2 ft swell, don't tell me it's any bigger cause it's not.
I thought VL was full of shit, but with the evidence you have just presented, he's not, as a matter of fact he's rrr rr r rrr rrrrrrrrrr r rr right.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:34pm

So true southey

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:41pm

Huh? Clean straight lines of groundswell in the photos as far as I can see. It's about as far away from 'junky' surf as I could imagine. Winds have been offshore all day too, so conditions certainly didn't get any worse than what the 7am photos represented.

Jeez you guy are a hard bunch to please.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:43pm

And just for posterity, here's the Torquay surf report notes:

"The ocean has cleaned up quickly after yesterday's onshores. Clean, straight lines with waves in the 3-4ft range. Low tide coming in so check the various reefs and beaches for some fun clean waves."

Or apparently in laymans terms, 'small junky shit'.

vic-local_2's picture
vic-local_2's picture
vic-local_2 Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 9:56pm
e wrote:

Where's VL? He's gone all quiet.

I've been away from the coast for 3 days but it's nice to see my forecast stands up to scrutiny. Thanks Shaun.
And for the record, the next 2 low pressure systems are doing exactly what the last 10 have done. Same storm track and weakening in our swell window. So that means sweat FA on the surfcoast after a little pulse over the weekend.
Are you paying attention Ben? or are you going to tell everyone it's going to pump?
Maybe I will hit this forum again for the next time SN produces an epic forecast that is never going to match actual conditions. I won't be telling you when SN under calls it. Ahhh, those blissful days where it's only the tuned in locals in the water.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Friday, 4 Oct 2013 at 11:16pm

Ben, I surfed today and the seabreeze hit a 9.30 it came back off shore in the afternoon.
I grew up checking the surf from the exact same spot those photos were taken from, all those pics tell me it was 2 ft with a bit of easterly crap morning sickness across it. Some times you guys get up my nose, yes you have heaps more education and knowledge about the ocean, lucky you, you got an education. I surfed today as I do every day and I'm telling you for nothing it was not offshore all day and it was not 3 to 4 foot in those photos and it was very junkie late morning.
Here's a little theory i have, I think you'll like this. I reckon alot of the guys who do the surf reports for sn read your forecasts and try to word the report as close as to your forecast as they can, cause they know how sulky you get when you get it wrong, your quoting a guy that's talking up his contest and a guy who gets paid to talk it up.
But I just surf this coast every day, what would I know.

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 12:34am

Please Ben keep over-calling..once crew work it out then crowds will drop and locals will be happy!!. Why even worry about forecasts? if you know your shit..then you can dodge the crew, pretty fucken simple really..I think VL wants a fucken paycheck!! that's all

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 7:06am

Ben, I surfed today and the seabreeze hit a 9.30 it came back off shore in the afternoon.

By: "shaun"

Dunno what coast you're surfing Shaun, but no sea breezes were reported on Friday morning in Victoria yesterday. Try the AWS data Portland, Port Fairy, Cape Otway, Aireys Inlet, South Channel Island or Rhyll.

Cape Otway recorded a light east wind from about 1-3pm (5-8kts), and South Channel Island saw morning N'ly winds swing light NE in the afternoon then E'ly mid-late afternoon (ie after 3pm), but speeds were under 10kts. In any case, nothing like what you're reporting.

I surfed today as I do every day and I'm telling you for nothing it was not offshore all day

By: "shaun"

Look at the Aireys Inlet weather station, Shaun. It's the closest weather station to Torquay. Winds were offshore all day.

Anyway, I was under the assumption that you don't live on the Surf Coast? If that's the case then what you experienced is likely to have been different from what the Surf Coast experienced (because, this discussion was about the Surf Coast forecast).

As for yesterday's size report - every other surf report in the region was also reporting 3-4ft. And I was contacted privately by a couple of other people - who provided images - which confirms the surf was clean, straight and in the 3-4ft range.

If we're going to disagree as to how big a 3ft wave is, then that's fine.

But, there's no way that yesterday morning's conditions could be construed as 'junky'.

Image

Here's a little theory i have, I think you'll like this. I reckon alot of the guys who do the surf reports for sn read your forecasts and try to word the report as close as to your forecast as they can, cause they know how sulky you get when you get it wrong

By: "shaun"

HAHA! OK then, go and ask any of my surf reporters if they report what they see, or if they report what they think I want to read.

For the record - we've never asked our surf reporters to 'fit the mold', so to speak. They report whatever they like. If we get the forecast wrong - which certainly happens on occasion - then their reports will reflect that. I have no interest in providing a false service - I started Swellnet to learn more about weather and surf patterns. It's a little hard to learn from your mistakes if your data sources are false and unreliable.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 7:52am

The 2 other photos that were in the report looked crap, easterly washing through it almost bigger than the south swell, in the photo above look how close the swell are apart, might be good swell on the east coast but to a victorian that's crap.
Ben just because a weather station on top of a lighthouse is showing offshore winds does not mean that a couple of hundred feet below the wave aren't being affected by a seabreeze, by the way I traveled the whole coast on friday, light house to light house.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 8:16am

The 2 other photos that were in the report looked crap, easterly washing through it almost bigger than the south swell

By: "shaun"

Easterly washing through it? Shaun, there haven't been easterly winds in Vicco for days (bloody hell, VL's claim at the start of the week was the waves were gonna be crap all week because of the westerly airstream, now your claiming Friday's 'junky' surf was because of an easterly?).

Ben just because a weather station on top of a lighthouse is showing offshore winds does not mean that a couple of hundred feet below the wave aren't being affected by a seabreeze

By: "shaun"

Sure, that's technically possible but in order to generate 'junky' surf (which, in the absence of a technical definition means at least an hour or two of 15-20kt+ onshore winds), it's very unlikely for the surface wind field to have been strong onshores, if just 95m above the surface, winds were 10-15kts offshore.

What is more likely is that you experienced light variable winds (similar to what the Cape Otway AWS recorded around lunchtime). But I wouldn't call this a sea breeze, and at under 10kts it's not strong enough to create 'junky' conditions.

by the way I traveled the whole coast on friday, light house to light house.

By: "shaun"

So you don't live on the Surf Coast, but just by chance happened to be there yesterday? I don't know if by "lighthouse to lighthouse" you mean Cape Nelson to the Prom, Cape Otway to Point Lonsdale or Aireys Inlet to Barwon Heads.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 9:45am

Ben , the photo above does look shit .

And I'd say Shauno went from Aireys to Otway or vica versa . When i looked this morning " Morris " had tagged his name at both .!!!

Now i personally don't have a problem if you guys talk up the surf . Just means Muppets can follow and waste their fuel and time on less than perfect conditions , and then not have both when its EPIC !!! Perhaps you guys are doing us a favour and getting people to come down on smaller period swells , when waves are more consistant to share the load accross the masses . And as long as they got Jan Juc coz its more often EPIC , then thats a Bonus .
So shaun , maybe apologise . They are doing us a service . And tell Morris to stop pissing on heritage listed lighthouses . His highly acidic piss attacks the limestone .and mortar . lol

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 9:58am

Ben , the photo above does look shit .

By: "southey"

Are you kidding?

Look, I'm perfectly happy to accept that some people think the surf in that photo isn't up to their standard. I know plenty of crew who won't paddle out until it's four-to-six and heaving. That's fine.

But I stand by my previous point - the surf was NOT 'junky' on Friday morning. Junky surf implies an onshore wind that is adding a high degree of windchop to the surface conditions, breaking up the swell lines and causing the surf to break erratically in peaks.

Pretty much what you'd expect in Torquay during a spell of gusty sou'east winds.

Pretty much the opposite of what you'd expect in Torquay during a spell of moderate nor'west winds.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 10:31am

The two other pictures on that report were of sparrows and steps, the one of sparrows clearly had swell from the east going across the south swell, the shot of steps was clearly broken up with sections all over the place.
Southy the only tags morris has is on his hemorrhoids.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 10:35am

Where did the east swell originate from, shaun?

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 11:46am

Don't know, don't care. It's your photo and it has easterly swell going across it, post it up, the one of sparrows and let the other see what I am talking about. Mate I could not give a ratz where any swell originates from, I just get up in the morning and surf it, you guys organize you life around surf forecasts, I organize mine around what I can see at the time.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 3:53pm

Okay bring on the other pics so we can all make a proper judgement.

I dont want to be a fence sitter but from that one pic (i believe its Birdrock looking toward Jan juc?) it could go either way, kind of looks like one of those days where there is nice lines and nice amount of swell but the actual waves are not really doing it, maybe even a wobble in the swell, even a slight dribbly look to it, but sometimes you never know until your out there, so id still be suiting up to paddle out, as its clean, no ones out and I love bird rock plus if im in torquay im not working and looks like im up early so im not going back to bed.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 4:22pm

Shaun if you just get up in the morning and surf, why look at swellnet at all? You clearly don't "need" it. Why bother even reading the report?

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 5:36pm

I don't goofy, it's just when I read this thread and Ben was calling out VL , but he was spot on in his prediction for friday, credit where credits due. Vl had it badly wrong on the previous monday evening though

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 6:19pm

Ain't luck a fortune . 50 % correct ... Leave it to the Pro's VL . They probably spend more time preparing the forecast than Shaun spends in the water...... ALOT ....
Shaun . let it go we are starting to sound anal .

vic-local_2's picture
vic-local_2's picture
vic-local_2 Saturday, 5 Oct 2013 at 9:59pm
e wrote:

Vl had it badly wrong on the previous monday evening though

If it did get to 4ft + last Monday it must have been really really late in the day. I surfed most of the afternoon and it was 2 maybe 3 ft, really inconsistent and packed. I'm talking 1 wave sets every 30-40 minutes. The rest of the time it was dribble. Locals were saying "I'm going to have to paddle in" and "I'm frozen just sitting here doing nothing". On my last wave three of us caught it and all went in laughing because it was that slow. (And yes I was the inside surfer)
So if you did get waves late, good luck to you, but the forecast was still wildly optimistic. An accurate forecast would have been worded something like this.

e wrote:

2ft + waves with a very long wait in between sets. A chance of a bump in swell very late in the day

Anyone surfer who had read the SN forecast and had taking time off work to surf 4ft + waves would have been bitterly disappointed.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 6:59am

If it did get to 4ft + last Monday it must have been really really late in the day.

By: "vic-local"

Which, ironically, was exactly what was forecast (arriving 'late in the day').

Maybe I should ask Craig to add in 'really, really' whenever he uses the term 'late' just to make sure there's no confusion.

morris's picture
morris's picture
morris Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 8:01am

Where are those two photos Ben, we both know Shauns right Friday, I was there and can vouch for Shaun.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 8:14am

Here ya go Morris.

Image

Image

morris's picture
morris's picture
morris Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 8:41am

Case closed, junkie crap.And lucky if it scrapes in at 1 foot

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 9:53am

Mmm does look pretty small and dribbly.

BTW. The swell did come up in Victoria that day, after work i checked the beach thinking about getting a wave and our beachies (Woolamai) was maxed out, i know it picks up much more swell than that coast, but im talking double, triple overhead very straight powerful top to bottom closeouts, im sure if the wind wasn't a problem it would have looked 100% over there by the arvo, although maybe my memories wrong but i think it was light E-ESE at that time?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 9:59am

ID, check the first image I posted (on the previous page). Doesn't look small and dribbly to me. Want a small and dribbly surf? Check out our Middleton surfcam any day of the week.

Every other surf report in the area reported clean, fun 3-4ft waves on Friday.

Surfing Victoria even reported excellent conditions in their daily event wrap up of the Rip Curl GromSearch here: http://www.surfingaustralia.com/vic/news-details.php?id=3906

I've even had people email me personally to confirm the waves were unreal.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 10:01am

Morris and Shaun, what's your definition of 'junky surf'?

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 10:18am

Ben ,

I've seen some images of that day from an ol' mate of that region , that look Okay - Good ....

But your not doin' yourself any favours with the images above .

I would say that its Junky Surf , and anything below that is just Junk .

Lets face it , I've seen better images of Metropolitan Melbourne Beaches ( PPB ) than the Adelaide ( Middleton ) coast . Probably gets bigger more often . :-0

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 10:20am

Yeah the first pic does look bigger, but it is looking down towards Jan Juc, which i believe gets more swell?

From what I saw in the arvo on the Island i would expect at least 3-4 foot waves in that area in the arvo, but judging from the pics i still think it looks small and dribbly, but the thing is a photo is just a snap shot of a split second and conditions change constantly tide, swell, wind and also sometimes it looks average from the beach you get out there and its actually pretty fun other times its looks good and its not so good, plus definition of small, big, junky even size in feet, also vary from where you live surfing ability and your froth level.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 10:52am

Looks like we need to firm up the definition of 'junky' surf.

In my opinion, 'junky' surf is short for 'junkswell', similar to windswell. As I said in a previous post, junky surf implies that an onshore wind that is adding a high degree of windchop to the surface conditions, breaking up the swell lines and causing the surf to break erratically in peaks. A mix of choppy surf and bumpy surf might be a good way to describe it.

When surfing 'junky' waves, you're always having to negotiate chop up the face, weird sections breaking back towards you, and the lip line crumbling in a random manner.

To me, 'junky surf' is what you'd expect in Torquay during a spell of gusty sou'east winds. However you won't see 'junky' surf during sustained periods of offshore winds - the offshores iron out the chop and bumps, and the surface is generally smooth.

My take on Friday morning's surf report photos were that conditions were clean but slightly lumpy, with a minor cross-wobble brought about by the previous day's westerlies. But, the lines are still quite straight and well defined. There's no sign of 'choppy' or 'bumpy' surf.

And it definitely wasn't junky.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Sunday, 6 Oct 2013 at 12:26pm

Been down grade from clean to cross wobbly, slightly bumpy and no bigger than 2 ft.

"in my opinion, 'junky' surf is short for 'junkswell', similar to windswell. As I said in a previous post, junky surf implies that an onshore wind that is adding a high degree of windchop to the surface conditions, breaking up the swell lines and causing the surf to break erratically in peaks. A mix of choppy surf and bumpy surf might be a good way to describe it."
That's called mush ben.

Victoria's different to Sydney Ben, in Sydney a 10 to 12 second swell is pumping in vicco it's shit.