The "real" winter is upon us

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog started the topic in Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 9:57am

Here it comes.....

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 10:03am

"Real" winter is about to arrive...... ...... True winter doesn't start on the 1/6......... It starts on the solstice...... Always has.... Always will... Summer starts on the 21/12 or there abouts..... It doesn't start on the 1/12....
The seasons aren't getting "later"..... It's just perception that changes as we age......

Sheepdog

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 10:07am

I know a few meteorologists that would disagree with you. Winter, by their definition, is the three coldest months of the year. Hence winter starts on the first day of those months.

Me, I couldn't give a rats...solstice sounds good tho'.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 10:19am

Being meterologists, they would adhere to the "meteorological" winter..... But most do not take into account "seasonal lag"....... If one looks at coldest weeks instead of months, a true seasonal picture will emerge.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_lag

Sheepdog

salt's picture
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salt commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 10:43am

Don't the aboriginals have six or so distinct seasons depending on where you are? I heard that somewhere, I reckon it makes more sense than just copying the seasons of the mother country We live in a vastly different place with vastly different climatic conditions to England/ Europe/ US. The aboriginals have had a fair while to work this stuff out.

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stan1972 commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 10:52am

Depends where you are. In Sydney it's
1. Boardies
2.Boardies and vest
3. Springy
4. Steamer
5. Steamer and a lot of motivation.
6. Then back to Steamer but with a bit less swell.
7. Springy with a bit less swell.
8. Boardies and vest with a bit less swell.
9. And back to boardies.

So that makes nine seasons in Sydney. You wont read about it in the papers though.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 11:13am

stan1972 wrote: Steamer and a lot of motivation
C'mon, it doesn't get that cold!
Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 11:21am

Doesn't get that cold ? I balked at it this morning just because the sky was grey.

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thermalben commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 11:29am

Water's still warm in Sydney, just north of 20 degrees at the MHL buoy. Not bad for the second week of June!

But, windchill factor is certainly making it less inviting. And all of this recent rainfall run-off would certainly be slightly lowering water temps in some parts of the surf zone.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 1:14pm

Re' seasonal lag..... Doesn't matter where you are on the planet..... it happens..... More substantial in some spots than others......
My favorite things about winter?
In Qld - crisp clean beachbreaks....... An 8 week reprieve from sweltering..... The novelty of wearing a springy.... Not having to mow the lawn weekly......
In Tassie - nothing............................ Oh, going to bed a cuddling with the mrs.........

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 3:49pm

Yeah was thinking the same Sheepio, the last few days up here the temp has dropped and comes the wind, which kind of makes it feel a lot colder.
Although having been here for 10 years, this is the first time we have not had the fire going since Easter...? Really warm May IMO, the water is still warm as well :)
I know its different down your ways as snow on the hills a month or so ago, makes a huge difference.
Just cuddle up to Mumma, she'll rub your sore back for ya, but be careful of boom boom, boom boom and sore back no gooooood ;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 3:58pm

Just kick back and let'em ride, welly ;)

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 4:57pm

Yes. True True.

But it sounds like you have got a seasonal lag to me Sheepio :)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 10 Jun 2014 at 5:08pm

Welly, better to be late on it than early...... If ya get my drift....... "oops.... Winter came early..... Sorry sweetheart....." :p

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 10:23am

Winter Solstice falls on the 21st of June, which in the past many a time than the average, usually a great snowfall and start to Treble Cone and any other fields in NZ fields receiving NW-W systems :)

Looking at Swellnets WAMs, it looks to me to be spot on time again, the winter will start.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 10:31am

Wellymon... I cant find a weekly breakdown of average temps....... But if I do, I bet that the first two weeks of june are vastly different to the last 2 weeks.... VAAAAAAstly........ The last 2 weeks of june really knock the monthly average down....
Same deal with september..... The first two weeks are nothing like the last two weeks...... The last two weeks are a heck of alot warmer, pushing the sept' average up.....

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 10:35am

Yeah I hear ya Sheepio,
I think it depends on snowfalls as well tho, as I know the last fews years around the Southern Alps, there has been late falls, which must have an impact of temps..? Especially late september and early Oct as well as Nov...?

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 10:39am

Never been skiing/skurfing, welly..... Looks like a real buzz..... Is it up there with surfing?

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 10:55am

Sure is, different realm, similar riding styles, more riding time :)
Great time, great people, great lifestyle, same stoke....;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 3:49pm

Seems too much like hard work, welly :p

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 4:04pm

Yes I understand Sheepio, Expense is the biggest factor compared to surfing.

Hey I'm sure those little sheep dog legs have run around the farm that often they could handle it. Then it wouldn't be hard work :)

But hey ask Uplift about leg training ;) especially snowboarding and............... nothing else except surfing ouch.......!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 4:32pm

Oh oh........ Don't stir the stairdodger out of his current zen like state, welly...... you should know better!!!!!!!!

Sheepdog

thelostclimber's picture
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thelostclimber commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 4:47pm

sheepdog - after having spent the 2000's living in Tasmania- which is where you seem to be, I can say that water temps wise, you are pretty much in perpetual winter. How's the 5:4:3mm, hood, boots and gloves going?

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 5:08pm

thelostclimber wrote: sheepdog - after having spent the 2000's living in Tasmania- which is where you seem to be, I can say that water temps wise, you are pretty much in perpetual winter. How's the 5:4:3mm, hood, boots and gloves going?

No gloves lostclimber, just 4 boots for Sheepio. ;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 6:11pm

hahahahaa...... No doubt about you, welly ;) Lost climber, it sux..... That's all I can say.... The true locals here are f*ckn crazy.......

Sheepdog

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maddogmorley commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 7:00pm

Crazy perhaps but there are crazier - my mate spent 4 years living and surfing in Newfoundland.....surf for an hour, paddle in and sit in the car with ya wetty still on and heater blaring, pour a thermos of warm water down ya wetty then back out for another 30mins or so.

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 8:08pm

Ahhh fuck that, mad dog........ There's keen...... Then there's crazy........

Sheepdog

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zenagain commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 9:39pm

Can I chime in here?

In my opinion, snowboarding is one of the most addictive pursuits out there. I used to ski a lot when I was younger but took up snowboarding about 10 years ago. At first, snowboarding is not easy but it's one of those sports (like surfing) where you can see constant inprovement. Also witrh snowboarding, improvement comes quickly unlike surfing. A couple of seasons will see you pretty competent and I can assure you there is nothing in this world that compares to being up to your nuts in fluffy deep powder snow and throwing yourself over the edge.

You tassie boys would be right at home surfing here. Come and put a winter in here, then you'll know the meaning of cold. Snowboard one day and surf the next. Yee hah!

1173

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 at 11:09pm

Thanks but no thanks, zen...... I'd come up for good miso though..... Check out those crazy monkeys that lounge in the thermal springs.... And those other ones that take their yams to the beach to flavour them with salt...... pretty cool

Sheepdog

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zenagain commented Thursday, 12 Jun 2014 at 8:32am

Like these bad boys sheepie.

1173

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Sheepdog commented Thursday, 12 Jun 2014 at 8:54am

That's them, Zen...... And here's their mates at the beach. This dude has a yam...... Nothing like ocean washed salted yam :p

Sheepdog

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mitchvg commented Thursday, 12 Jun 2014 at 11:35am

Sheepdog wrote: And those other ones that take their yams to the beach to flavour them with salt...... pretty cool

Now I see, thought you were talking about old mate Salt, getting his nads out at the beach with a bunch of monkeys!

thelostclimber's picture
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thelostclimber commented Thursday, 12 Jun 2014 at 1:24pm

Sheepdog wrote: hahahahaa...... No doubt about you, welly ;) Lost climber, it sux..... That's all I can say.... The true locals here are f*ckn crazy.......

Yep nothing like surfing when there's frost still on the beach at 11.00am. All in the pursuit of a barrel.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Thursday, 12 Jun 2014 at 1:57pm

And Zen san is the master of it.
Respect.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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mundies commented Monday, 30 Jun 2014 at 10:10pm

Winter solstice saturday 21 June, southern "real" weather systems drop up to 2m snow from about monday 23 June particularly in NSW Oz Alps initially, but then widespread. Took advantage of this last few days, good call Sheepdog.

mundies

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mundies commented Monday, 30 Jun 2014 at 10:13pm

And back home in time for swell from the same source

mundies

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 30 Jun 2014 at 10:33pm

Yeah great call. Hope you got a few turns in Mundies;)
Always happens around that time, either here or NZ.
I think it depends on where the LWT is situated...??

Sheepio what are your thoughts on that......! Southey, Ben, Craig......! Don!, would love some input ;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 11:04am

Welly. My main pov is about "seasonal lag".... I wont get technical, and try to do it in laymans terms. June21 is the shortest day of the year... A regular pundit would say that would have to be the coldest day... But it takes a bit of time for ocean and land to cool down after summer/autumn... The month of May can still have some nice warm days.......
So.... In june things start to cool down.... Water temps drop, land temps drop.... Now by june 21, and the following month, the chill hits.... Sure, after june 21, they days get longer, but VERY slowly.... And there isnt enough sting in the sun to rewarm the water/land... It actually keeps dropping (temp)... It isn't until early sept that we find the sun high enough in the sky to start rewarming the ocean and land.... The equinox (sept 21/22) is when the suns rays really start to take effect....

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 12:05pm

Yeah I hear ya Sheepiomon
I'm more interested in timing a trip back home for some face shots in the frozen water.
I never really had to check weather forecasts to get what I wanted hence living a few ks from the goods.
Since being on SN I've got a lot more interested in weather models and forecasts, thanks to Ben, Craig, Southey , MVG , Don and yourself....
I've learnt about the LWT etc??
I've been a little bamboozled with technical input as I'm a simple man who used to read from the synoptic maps in the news paper..
I'm remember years ago if Australia had good snow 2-3 days later NZ South Island would get the same if not more????
This had no effect at all regards to this last system/ weather pattern maybe it slipped to far south and did not introduce enough moisture off the Tasman sea then go cold.
With all these maps/ models and forecasts hopefully I can score??
;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 12:32pm

Welly, I think I have supplied you with Metvuw before.. (university of wellington , NZ) - http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=swp&noofdays=7

If you look at the current thumbnail, you'll see 3 fronts hitting NZ, with the first one being the biggest... You'll also notice a big "rainy patch" (pink) between NZ and tassie..... Notice the isobars are drawing all the way down to antarctica ( also note the low below NZ)...... So that wind is coming from a freakn cold place mate...... Now, I want you to correlate in you mind that map, and this image

That pink area between NZ and Tassie - notice on the photo the "speckled cloud" in that region... Whenever you see that sort of speckled cloud behind an approaching cold front, you know it really is cold..... That speckled cloud formation is ferkn freezing..
There, if you didnt know that, it just a bit more weather trivia to confuse the fuck out of you ;)

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 2:01pm

Yeah no worries Sheepio, I lost that link and have now bookmarked it;)
I knew about the speckle cloud etc.
I think I will keep looking at this model, they are a lot different than SN's wams....?
Still cold air like this model does not produce snow in the South of NZ, need moisture in the Tasman with NW -W fetches and cold air behind...?eh bro.....!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 2:21pm

No worries bro... Looks like july 3 should be good ehh......

Sheepdog

udo's picture
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udo commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 3:02pm

Well a couple of key words rekindled my interest in this: Pink area and Tassie ....
The map of.
NZ =no go zone

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Craig commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 3:08pm

RE snow predictions and DIY forecasting here's some rough rules to help you.

Looking at any decent weather chart (I'll use Weatherzone's as an example) you'll see thickness lines hidden under the isobars.

On the chart below these are the real faint grey lines, and you can see three of these highlighted in red, blue and purple.

Looking at the blue 540 line you can roughly expect snow to fall down to 1,400m if there is precipitation in the atmosphere.

So if this blue line is over a mountainous area of 1,400m or higher then you can expect snow if there's precipitation forecast. Again roughly 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow. If the air is a lot drier and the snow drier/fluffier you can expect slightly higher snow totals.

The purple line is really cold air and if this line pushes over the mountains or even land you can roughly expect snow to sea level. This happens very rarely in Australia.

The other factor is the direction of the wind compared to the alignment of the mountain range as this can amplify/prohibit the snowfall amounts, and a prime example of this is the pre-frontal NW winds on the Aus slopes bearing more snow than a post-frontal equivalent SW'ly.

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 3:49pm

Cheers Craig
Same as the fields in NZ ie Temple, TC, Ohau love the NW- W wind alignment
As fields like the clubs and Hutt love the S- SE and E wind alignments especially with precip
I was just baffled with these last systems as they looked good on the wams then just disappeared with no precip?????

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Craig commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 4:02pm

Most likely drying out over Australia Welly, better stuff for you guys comes up from the entrance to the Southern Tasman it'd appear, although have never paid close attention?

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southey commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 5:01pm

What Craig said in relation to the " thickness " lines is the best indication for typical ' surface synoptic chart watches like ourselves , who grew an interest in weather from typical newspaper produced synoptic charts for Surf forecasts .

However snow gurus and the like are far ahead of us looking at " Upper atmospheric " and zonal westerly ( roaring forties ) alignments for forecasts outlooks beyond a week . Having said all this , many " guru's " that lurk on sites liek ski.com , WZ and the like are all a bit bamboozled by the lack of warning from such indicators like the SAM in relation to last weeks dump .

These things tend to go in rhythms , but determining the " winter break " as the farmers tend to call it is alot harder . People looking at snow long term need to also take account of SST's and thats where they could learn a little from us .
It was always setup that when the right upper & surface conditions , combined with a strong cold front / pool system came through with the help of the SAM and LWT , we would see much increased falls than normally expected due to local SST's and variance to fuel the systems and maintain moisture well into their inland path .

As for the old NZ vs Aust sno conditions rarely do both have outstanding systems in the same year . the answer to that most likely is within the ACW ( Antarctic Circumpolar Wave ) and its effect on the LWT's strength and repetition within the zonal region needed .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 6:52pm

Yeah Southey have been trying to follow these things you have mentioned but way over my head sometimes:)
Q Southey "Having said all this , many " guru's " that lurk on sites liek ski.com , WZ and the like are all a bit bamboozled by the lack of warning from such indicators like the SAM in relation to last weeks dump ."

This what got me as well as I said above these types of falls usually get to NZ a couple of days later...? Which has happened frequently in the past...? So is this because of a ????????? Super El Nino" weather pattern setting up...?ACW? SST's....?
I've read before usually "el Ninos" in the winter produce lots of moisture and cold conditions especially for the west coast of Sth NZ....?

As for the map Craig linked above with WZ, I notice the blue line mid North Island and westerly alignment, hence producing 15cm today and 24 cms tomorrow at Whakapapa ski field in the North Island.
Looking south the alignment is South and too cold IMO, hence 5cm today and a couple more tomorrow ??at Treble Cone..

The 3 fronts Sheepio talked about above, usually IM experience the first big rain front later at night produces the most heaviest of falls, only because the cold (speckly looking) air is straight behind it. Then when the cold fronts pass by, not so much snow just dustings, more so west situated fields, then they pass up the East coast and produce...?

Yeah sorry for the rant as I really want to nail this shit as it costs money to fly for snow, as regards to everyone else here who travel for waves, I do too;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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southey commented Tuesday, 1 Jul 2014 at 10:14pm

Yeah , not sure of ENSO's influence on NZ .
I've only been to NZ once for their snow ... ( was a shit year too ) 98 or 99 ?!?
Note the system that fed us lingered , an was pretty much spent before getting near NZ . But it did look like conditions were repelling the fronts advancement .
I would say that the LWT is probably the only thing that would connect Aust & Nz systems , generally speaking a front or the first two in a multiple set won't reach NZ especially if the node if the LWT is centred below the bight or west of it . But if it's centred say below Tassie and stalls or an ECL stalks before drawing up a front or multiple fronts behind it , both the available moisture in the ECL then the cold pool advancing straight into it is the best scenario for the Nth isle anyway .
It always looked like the tail end would provide for NZ . What they need now is for a low to stall , get an indeed from the tropics then another series of frontal activity before this large extremely long ridge /high that's currently in the Eastern Indian makes itself well and truly to Eastern Oz & and the Tasman . I would say if they don't see a solid dump not just by this weekend but well into late next week . Then that might be classed as a poor season . Failing the late El Nino finally blooming to turn things around , it doesn't look good for NZ to date .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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mick-free commented Wednesday, 2 Jul 2014 at 6:52am

Southy said ".....But if it's centred say below Tassie and stalls or an ECL stalks before drawing up a front or multiple fronts behind it , both the available moisture in the ECL then the cold pool advancing straight into it is the best scenario for the Nth isle anyway ....."

Southy that's when the best snow system for South Island fields Treble Cone and Temple Basin (Both NW facing actually Temple sits one valley over from the Great Dividing range and has this unique effect of getting puked on - highest recorded base of 11m one year) This is from the NW which actually is rare. but when the perfect storm comes a long Tasman ECL and a series of fronts pulling super cold air up thats when you get the big dumps.

El Nino is a problem and if I remember correctly Australia has a very short season but with a periods of big snowfall. You can track the snowfall calender for thredbo for every year - its all charted. In El Nino NZ season goes to shithouse pretty quickly with little moisture.

Wellymon was pretty famous in backcountry NZ in the 90s getting a few covers if ya google him haha.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 2 Jul 2014 at 1:27pm

MICK FREE - check inbox re' possible decent swell at a certain location....... Cheers.....

Sheepdog