Maldives Surf Forecast

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley started the topic in Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 11:19am

Anyone know of any links besides Magic Seaweed that do surf forecasts for the Maldives?

Heading there in a couple of weeks and would be good to know in advance if worth packing a bigger board or not.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 11:59am

Check surfline.

I've never been to the Maldives, but I would take a bigger one anyway, especially if you see those big purple blobs coming through under South Africa.

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 1:16pm

MSW tends to underpredict the swell hitting the Maldives in my experience. Surfline also uses a location closer to the Southern Atolls rather than the North Male Atolls, so it tends to overpredict swell heights for the North Male Atolls, noting that the North Male atolls don't see any SW swell due to the southern atolls blocking this swell out.

What part of the Maldives are you looking at going to? North Male? Let me know dates and I can do up a forecast for you if you like.

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donweather commented Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 1:25pm

Also, if you're surfing the North Male Atolls, you can get away with riding your normal length board even in the solid 6ft surf as the take offs on these waves is very very forgiving compared to say Indo or elsewhere. So I'd recommend taking ya normal shorty plus one minor step up board (say 3-4 inches more than your regular shorty) for the bigger 6ft/6ft+ days.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 1:53pm

Wow thanks Don - a forecast would be awesome!

I leave Oz on July 28 for 2 weeks and heading to the North and South Male atolls on the Himathi.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 1:55pm

Hi Maddog, Don's right regarding the difference between the southern atolls and Male and also the board size. Don't worry about a bigger gun as the reefs are more forgiving and waves slower.

Looks like the Long Wave Trough could be moving into a favourable position and stalling in the south-west Indian Ocean to the south of Madagascar later next week. This fairs well for longer term outlook but give us some dates and we can keep an eye on it for you.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Thursday, 5 Jul 2012 at 2:04pm

Thanks Craig - that would be awesome....at this stage packing my 6'4 quad (normal shorty) and a 6'6 Al Merrick black beauty.

And more than happy to provide feedback to both you and Don as to what the actual conditions were like....

Thanks again

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mrsbradpitt commented Friday, 6 Jul 2012 at 2:11am

Kelly slater surfs on a 5'8 quad in all conditions ranging from 1ft to 10ft. i dont see why you should be any differant

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 6 Jul 2012 at 11:12am

Maddog.....Leaving on July 28th for 2 weeks....that's along way out from here mate...remind me in about 10 days time and I'll take a look at the long range charts for ya then.

Craig....the fetch area that you're talking about (SW Indian Ocean) isn't the ideal swell window for the Male Atolls.....only S/SE swells really get into these breaks, hence the actual ideal setup is a semi stationary elongated large high pressure system setting up camp just off the WA coast.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Monday, 9 Jul 2012 at 1:04pm

Thanks Don - will do.

greyhound's picture
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greyhound commented Tuesday, 10 Jul 2012 at 5:50pm

i recon the next couple of weeks, from maldives to indo are gonna be good.the whole south indian ocean looking very colorful.

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donweather commented Tuesday, 10 Jul 2012 at 7:20pm

Most of the colourful fetch unfortunately is very zonal, Greyhound, so it's very hard to see how any of this swell will be getting into the North Male Atolls of the Maldives. Meanwhile WA!!!!

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Jul 2012 at 8:01pm

Oh things are firing up for sure, most activity we've seen for a good few months :D

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Tuesday, 17 Jul 2012 at 1:16pm

Gee, shame you're not there this week Maddog!!! Some very very nice looking SE swell inbound for the Maldives, courtesy again of a semi stationary high pressure system in the Indian Ocean.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Tuesday, 17 Jul 2012 at 1:38pm

OK thanks Don - hope it's not going to be a case of 'you should have been here last week'!

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donweather commented Thursday, 19 Jul 2012 at 1:15pm

Check ya messages maddog.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Thursday, 19 Jul 2012 at 1:33pm

Yes saw your post about this week looking pretty good up there Don. When I said I hope it's not a case of 'you should have been here last week' I was referring to what would be said to me when I arrived in the Maldives. But now I've realized I won't be there next week but the week after! Hopefully they won't say 'you should have been here 2 weeks ago'.

Don - I will re-active this post if it's fallen out of the top 5 sometime middle of next week. If you are still OK to give me a forecast around then, that would be awesome.

Cheers

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 20 Jul 2012 at 12:13pm

Maddog, I sent you a private message, did you read it? Craig et al, are private messages now working on here? It's still showing unread by Maddog in my sent box?

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maddogmorley commented Friday, 20 Jul 2012 at 6:27pm

Sorry Don but I'm not sure how to read private messages. Is there a link to my inbox somewhere?

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maddogmorley commented Friday, 20 Jul 2012 at 6:32pm

Hi Don - found my private messages and have sent you a reply. Cheers

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maddogmorley commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 12:27pm

Leaving on Saturday Don and/or Craig - hoping I might be able to get a report off you as to what i may be in for if you have time.

Don - I've sent you a private message as well.

Cheers

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 12:42pm

Hi Maddogmorley,

A bit busy until later this evening so I'll have a look then.

Cheers, Craig

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 12:44pm

Thanks Craig....

floyd's picture
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floyd commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 1:08pm

guys, i'm stuck in 4/3 wetsuit country all winter so will you lot stop reminding me about what some lucky bastards are getting up to in warm parts of the world this winter. fair crack of the whip!

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 1:17pm

Maddog, check ya PMs.

Craig et al, the format of PMs is woeful. It deletes all carriage returns so the text is all one big paragraph!!!!

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 5:59pm

Maddog, looks like you're in for some fun waves.

Firstly regarding Don's points of SE trade-swells for the area, yes these will keep you surfing every day during your stay but IMO and talking to others, these aren't the swells that you score the best waves off of.

What you want is those stronger S'ly groundswells for the spots like Sultans etc. These come from strong storms developing just west of the Heard Island region and pushing quite north in latitude up towards Sumatra etc. These will give you those less consistent but stronger lines of groundswell that will push down the reefs better.

For your trip you're looking at a favourable setup for these long-range swells to form as the Long Wave Trough will intensify across the south-east Indian Ocean, aiming polar storms northward through Male's swell window.

The first long period swell is expected to arrive through the 29th but a larger and stronger pulse is due into the 2nd and 3rd of August (generated by a great looking polar front pushing nicely up towards Sumatra), probably offering inconsistent 4-5ft+ sets. A slow decline from then is on the cards but that's what I can gather from a quick look at the charts.

What do you think Don?

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 6:38pm

Thanks Craig - I hope you're right!

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 8:53pm

Craig, in my experience of the North Male atolls, S/SW swells struggle to get into all but the swell magnet locations like Cokes. The swell you're referring to on the 29th-31st is too small in swell height and swell period to have any real effect on surf heights in the North Male region IMO. Of more importance at this time will be the fun 3-4ft SE swell.

In my PM to maddog today however I did allude to the fact that I thought the S/SW swell that you've discussed for the 2nd of August will have an impact on the North Male atolls, particularly at locations like Cokes. How much of that swell wraps around the atolls and into Cokes is always a tough question, but this one has a very good LONG period, so I said to maddog that I thought it could get into Cokes as an inconsistent 3ft or so. 5ft+ is a big call IMO, but lets see how the storm actually pans out and if it's got more south direction in it, then it might get up to 3-4ft perhaps?

funpeeler's picture
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funpeeler commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2012 at 11:03pm

Hey guys this is gold. Me and my mates are going on a Liquid Destinations charter on Sep 10. Any chance of a forecast then? How do you characterize the area for swell and weather conditions at that time of the year?

Cheers

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donweather commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2012 at 9:26am

Liquid Destinations in September? I assume you're heading to the Southern Atolls? Very different location to where Maddog is heading both in terms of wind and swell.

funpeeler's picture
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funpeeler commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2012 at 3:18pm

We go as far south as the Central Atolls I believe. What can we expect there? Trying to work out what boards to take.

brow-nobbys's picture
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brow-nobbys commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2012 at 7:19pm

Don n craig, ive been watching with interest the surf reports for the Maldives. My wife n I land at cokes on the evening of 4 August for seven nights and Id really appreciate if you guys can give me a rundown on what the surf and waves are going to be like then. Looking at your reports, looks like I should've been there yesterday?

Brow

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donweather commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2012 at 8:43pm

BN, check ya PMs.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 9:55am

Hi Don/Craig - any chance of a final update? Leaving tomorrow.

Cheers

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 1:00pm

Maddog.....I'm under the pump today so won't get a chance to prepare one for ya until tonight at best, so check ya PMs then.

But in saying that, the forecast for that long range SW/S groundswell has improved, even more so for around the Friday August 3rd, and so if it comes to fruition, you might just see your 4-5ft+ up at the North Male atolls. But I note that there's also likely to be a good pulse of SE groundswell of similar size (probably closer to the 4ft/4ft+ range) around this time also, and so you may not be able to decipher if it's the S'ly groundswell or the SE swell. What dates do you head to the South Male atolls?

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 1:11pm

Hi Don - thanks a lot for the promised forecast - will check my PM's tonight.

Not sure when we head to South Male atolls - we are on the Himathi and my understanding is we can motor between both North and South Male Atolls depending on the swell and wind.

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Craig commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 1:54pm

Ah, so we agree now Don, haha ;)

Maddog, without regurgitating what I wrote before it looks like you'll get plenty of waves for your trip, especially during that period from the 2nd-3rd onwards. That swell is still on track to deliver inconsistent 4-5ft+ sets, but there will be very long waits between the bigger ones so you'll have to be patient.

Oh and Don why the need for PM's? It would make for a more interesting conversation if you put your thoughts on here :)

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donweather commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 4:35pm

Craig, we agree but also disagree. I don't think that swell will have much impact on the North Male Atolls until around 4th August, when it's swell direction is more south, rather than SW/S. And whilst there will be long waits for this swell, there will certainly be enough SE mid range swell in the water to fill in these waits during this time anyway.

I PM'd maddog so not to skew your opinion Craig. I'm more than happy to put my forecast up later tonight when I do my final one for Maddog.

funpeeler's picture
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funpeeler commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 7:38pm

No PM. Share the love.

woohcs's picture
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woohcs commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 7:56pm

i've been watching this thread carefully, looking at booking a trip to maldives May next year...seems to generally be the best mix of swell and wind...but, three non surf buddies want to come for the holiday and want to push till after the tax year to claim and pay for holiday. i know it's a bit off topic for maldives surf report now, but you guys seem to be clued in. so my questions for all and sundry is #1 best time of year to surf maldives for swell #2 best time of year to surf maldives for wind and #3 looking at hoduran fushi...land based trip...the non surfers like the idea of all inclusive(beer and basic)...any info greatly appriecated?

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donweather commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:02pm

This thread already scares me as to how many people are now going to the Maldives, so I for one, unfortunately won't be telling everyone what is the best time of year to be going.

Sorry.

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woohcs commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:14pm

fair call, but its a big outlay just for the flights, and pretty thin sorta crowd where i surf...not many people to ask, only online reviews etc...spent enough of my hard earned in indo, and sick o bintang! do respect your call.

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woohcs commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:24pm

maybe slightly different then...anyone done hoduran fushi resort, previously lohi fushi i think...good place to be in maldives?

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donweather commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:28pm

I haven't heard any bad reports come out of Lohifushi. For land based camps with piss, it's either that or Pasta point in the North Male atolls.

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donweather commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:30pm

Maldives Forecast

Note the swells below are for the North Male atolls. I understand that the swell is slightly smaller or needs to be more SE in direction to get into the South Male atolls.

Sunday 29th July
Around 3ft of S/SE swell, with perhaps the odd 4ft set at the swell magnets.

Monday 30th July
2-3ft S/SE swell, with the upper end of this size range at the swell magnets. Swell waning slightly throughout the day.

Tuesday 31st July
Around 2ft SE swell early, with a new pulse of slightly better 2ft+ S/SE swell late in the day.

Wednesday 1st August
2-3ft S/SE swell with perhaps the odd 3ft+ set at the swell magnets.

Thursday 2nd August
2-3ft S/SE swell. There's also a new pulse of very long period S/SW groundswell moving up through the Maldives. Normally this swell direction doesn't get into the North or South Male atolls, but with this swell direction slightly south of SW and a very long swell period, I think you could see the odd freak set in the 3ft range at the south swell magnets.

Friday 3rd August
Combination of mid range 2-3ft SE swell and very inconsistent, long range S'ly groundswell in the 3-4ft class (upper end of this size range more so at the swell magnets) building further to 4-5ft during the afternoon.

Saturday 4th August
New pulse of SE swell around 3-4ft+, with very inconsistent 5ft/5ft+ S'ly groundswell (upper end at the swell magnets).

Sunday 5th August
SE swell around 4ft/4ft+, with very inconsistent 5-6ft S'ly groundswell (upper end at the swell magnets).

Monday 6th August
SE swell around 3-4ft, with very inconsistent 4-5ft S'ly groundswell (upper end at the swell magnets).

Tuesday 7th August
Predominantly mid range SE swell around 3-4ft with some waning very inconsistent similar sized S’ly groundswell (upper end at the swell magnets).

Wednesday 8th August
Mid range SE swell around 3-4ft. Possibly some new SW/S’ly groundswell but swell direction at this stage looks to SW to get into the Male Atolls for my liking.

Thursday 9th August
Mid range SE swell around 3-4ft with the remote possibility of some smaller sized SW/S’ly groundswell, but again swell direction doesn’t look favourable for the Male Atolls IMO.

woohcs's picture
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woohcs commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:39pm

thanks don...sux having non surfers even though they good mates, but save close to $800 if more than six book at same time...and your report seems as good as any...kudos for giving up some beer drinkin time to help guys/gals leaving soon

brow-nobbys's picture
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brow-nobbys commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:43pm

i've been watching this thread carefully, looking at booking a trip to maldives May next year...seems to generally be the best mix of swell and wind...but, three non surf buddies want to come for the holiday and want to push till after the tax year to claim and pay for holiday. i know it's a bit off topic for maldives surf report now, but you guys seem to be clued in. so my questions for all and sundry is #1 best time of year to surf maldives for swell #2 best time of year to surf maldives for wind and #3 looking at hoduran fushi...land based trip...the non surfers like the idea of all inclusive(beer and basic)...any info greatly appriecated?

By: "woohcs"

Brow

brow-nobbys's picture
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brow-nobbys commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 8:45pm

Hey mate, brow nobbys here, stop friggin procrastinating and what your friends are doing, tuck a surfboard under your f arm and go!

Brow

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 9:03pm

kudos for giving up some beer drinkin time to help guys/gals leaving soon

By: "woohcs"

One can still drink whilst doing a forecast!!!

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 9:24pm

I can drink and do a forecast, but I can't watch the footy, drink and forecast so the AFL wins..

brow-nobbys's picture
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brow-nobbys commented Friday, 27 Jul 2012 at 9:26pm

Hey don, Id check out storm weather plus magic seaweed. I only do the seven day forecast, cos I cant afford the sign up. they only give me seven days. I can pick the indo swells but not reAl good on the maldives. It's our first time in the maldives,so thanks for any help you can give me. I respect. Very much appreciated. Mick n marina.

Brow