Drug Aware Pro Margaret River webcast

matt123 wrote:

if I remember correctly they had 5ft Margies in the Friday update, Not sticking up for them tho.

Actually, CW's Margs forecast issued Friday (for Wednesday 2nd April) was "Decreasing S/SW swell, 2-4ft, largest sets on S exposures".

ACB__ wrote:

Based on that theory though Ben of boring repetitive slabs, what would you classify Teahupo'o as?

Teahupo'o is a much different wave (although I can't speak from personal experience, only what I've seen on the screen).

From a viewers standpoint, Teahupo'o looks a lot better than the Box as it's typically surfed bigger - Chopes is primo at 6-8-10ft whilst the Box doesn't seem to hold quite the same amount of size.

Teahupo'o is also a longer wave with a couple of different areas to take off (all of which dictate how the wave will develop down the line), which keeps things very interesting - after the barrel, the Box seems to go straight into deep water. However, at Chopes surfer will usually get a turn or two (or three) in which makes for a lot more variety.

I suppose The Box just looks smaller and shorter to me. And with a lack of good filming vantage points due to its offshore position (one long-lens camera on land, and one closer camera in the channel - just like they did for the IBA event a few years ago) - I reckon it'd become a little stale after a few heats.

Just my 2c anyway.

Dunno.. waiting for the call. Looks about the same as yesterday - nice and clean but an inconsistent 3-4ft.

https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/margaret-river

Off for the day due to inconsistency (interesting quote from Kieran: "Right now it looks pretty fun. And we may at the end of the waiting period be wishing for these conditions again"). 

But the right call I reckon. Yesterday was quite frustrating to watch at times. 

mick-free wrote:

Coastalwatch forecast still calling for 9-15 knot northerlies on Saturday. screen grab it 18:22

Interesting to also hear Pete Mel describe the upcoming forecast as the CW graphics were on the screen (showing N'ly winds for Saturday) yet Pete said that we were looking at "an increase in winds, coming out of that southerly direction" (discussion starts around the 18 min mark in the video below).

So.. is Pete getting his forecast information from somewhere else?

Yeah agreed. Personally I think that rather than having the Box as one possible venue, they should have a small wave spot up their sleeve (many previous 'QS events at Margs have suffered from small waves). For example, the reefs south of Gracetown (ie Lefthanders) would be unreal on days like yesterday and today and would be a great backup option - of which they could use backup infrastructure for North Point.

Dunno WP, you'll have to ask them.

Can't imagine that anyone's barred from surfing. I reckon most locals would have writen off Mainbreak during this period due to it being difficult to get access/carparking etc. 

I saw the same thing at Bells.. hardly anyone surfing on laydays. 

However they ain't gonna webcast laydays - webcasting requires too many people to make it happen and this all costs more $$ (webcast crew would be locked down for x number days of production days and x number of laydays over the waiting period).

Just checking in on the forecast - our automated model has nailed the last few days again (3ft yesterday building to 5ft in the a'noon). Today, the surf seems to be in the 4-6ft range and our model has 5ft (the threshold between 4-6ft, 5ft and 5-6ft is very close). We also got the wind direction spot on although at a lesser strength than what eventuated (this is a common trait, which we're looking into).

MSW again majorly undercalling the surf (4-7ft faces, first image below) while Surfline are still slightly overcalling at 11-13ft faces (although not quite as much as previous days, second image below).

Actually, our model got the wind forecast pretty close. Cape Leeuwin - which normally sees wind strength a smidge stronger than in the Margs region - has had S/SW winds under 10kts from the SW thru' S/SW for the last two hours, as has Cape Naturaliste for since midnight (although Cape Nat is often a smidge lighter than the Margs region).

The ASP need to change some of their media terminology. Today's press release has the subject heading: "Drug Aware Margaret River Pro on STANDBY".

Ordinarily this means we'd be waiting for an updated call in a few hours (i.e. waiting for the tide to turn, the wind to swing or a new swell to arrive).

However the event is actually off for the day. You've gotta get into the guts of the press release to read: "A lay day has been called and event organizers will reconvene at 6:30 a.m. local time (AWST) on Wednesday, April 9 to reassess conditions."

Looks like the Naturaliste buoy is picking up a faint signal of W/NW swell from ex-TV Ivanhoe. Not much size in it though, just under a metre.

Our model has 0.5m at 11.8 seconds at 6am this morning (out of the W/NW), building to 0.7m @12.1 seconds by noon, then 1m @ 12 seconds by 6pm. It has a little more size tomorrow (1.6m) but with a slowly dropping swell period (11 seconds easing to 10 seconds).

Will be interesting to see if it produces anything at Main Break - looks a little quiet on the surfcam right now: https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/margaret-river

Nuthin' really showing on the surfcam, except for a bunch of whitecaps from the 20kt N/NE breeze. Can't see them running today. Tomorrow is probably their best bet.

Will be interesting to see how big tomorrow comes in. Interestingly, MSW are forecasting 4-6ft which is almost the same size forecast they had for Day 1 (which came in easily double overhead). So unless tomorrow also comes in at double overhead, it shows that there's a lot of inconsistency in their forecast algorithm.

Our forecast model has 3ft tomorrow which I think is a more plausible figure (had 2ft at dawn this morning which seems about bang on with what I observed on the surfcam).

.... Mick! What do they have to drive! I gotta know!

Still looks really small on the Margs surfcam, 2ft maybe 2-3ft if you're super lucky (pic below is the biggest set I saw in almost 10 mins). Winds have backed off though.

And the 'official' forecast is 3-5ft for tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Couple of peaks in the gloomy pre-dawn light. Conditions are nice with offshore winds, size looks about 3ft+. It's not very big but they've gotta run today.

https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/margaret-river

'Tis a long wait for the sets, but there's a few more convincingly in the 4ft range now which is nice.

Wow. ASP Press release just came through (before the 'Dawn Patrol' has even aired on the webcast) and they're calling "Four-to-six foot (1.5 - 2 metre) surf at Main Break", and that the event will kick off at 7:15am.

That's the same size that they called on Day 1. Doesn't look anywhere near that on the surfcam so far though! Will be interesting to see how it looks once they commence competition.

Pete Mel calling "head high range". Kieran says there are "definitely some fun ones". Looks 3-4ft on the first few waves broadcast.