Solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams

thermalben's picture
thermalben started the topic in Tuesday, 26 Sep 2017 at 10:54am

Figure the forums was the best place for this.. sent in by Swellnet reader John a few weeks ago. It's out of my area of expertise but I'm curious...

"Have you ever considered the link between solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams; and the 'turbo-charging' of existing weather systems?  Pertinent at present as we have an X Class flare (9.3) inbound, on top of a CME presently affecting us, plus a coronal hole stream... and... that very large hurricane breaking records as it bears down on Cuba/Florida.

The basic premise is that solar particles bombard the earth's upper atmosphere with extra hydrogen ions in solar storm conditions, IIRC energy of this plus H joining with O in upper atmosphere adds to the storm/adds water.  As earth's magnetic fields weaken (happening) the chances of solar particles getting through increases.  I'd be fascinated to see if these conditions correlated with the stories Swellnet sometimes runs on sub tropical lows intensifying in the southern ocean, or bombing ECLs".

AlfredWallace's picture
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AlfredWallace Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 1:12pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

Thanks for getting into it everyone! Craig I've sent a couple of our pics to you, which illustrate one of the flare pulses I reckon. I've seen a family pic from outside Karratha to confirm aurora australis got that far north, and heard on the net that it was visible in Puerto Rico, first time in 103 years!

Shoredump, a level 5 flare I guess you will get that from time to time - Haloween 2003 was one example. We're at a maximum in the 11 year solar cycle and so there's more sunspots to fire them off. For this event there's more incoming, maybe keep an eye on the global K index to see if/when it peaks further:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

and the aurora forecast:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

What has/is changing is the strength of earth's protective geomagnetic field, and it's getting weaker as the geomagnetic poles shift position (c'mon science: give us an honest update on where they are now!). With a weaker magnetic field, more of the particles/plasma will get through, so more auroras for lesser flares, more lightning, more charging of the earth's 'circuit', weirder jet streams, crazier weather, more charging of the atmospheric column - that's my opinion anyway. All on top of CO2 - would love to see a model that works with all these extra inputs and what it predicts.

We are so lucky to live in a time of so much great change, we get to witness it.

So... this bit is for daily good news really, have now been in 3 earthquakes (and saw the weirdest sky phenomenon I've ever seen just prior to one of them), been struck by lightning and survived, and now seen southern lights - all in last few years, in Australia, close to home, where nothing happens. What a time to be alive.

VelocityJohnno. Brilliant stuff mate, thanks for bringing us a long with your great knowledge of that enormous thermonuclear reactor and its reactions. AW

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 2:30pm

Here are VJ's amazing images..

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 6:00pm

Nice VJ, I bet the views from yours would have been awesome!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 6:13pm

Yeah, really good blackers! Your pics were great too: where were they? There was cloud all day and the SC was caught in a moist SE flow, but as predicted by windy it began to clear in the south which was so good by sundown. We went somewhere between TQ and Anglesea. I am sure we saw a flare pulse as it arrived. Seeing the aurora australis was always on the bucket list and I've missed it a few times, but to see it so huge and spectacular at home never dreamed it would be like this.

I've since got some pics from my son from last night and they are even more dramatic. He was out surfing 13th today and reckoned on the horizon there was still that lime/white green line with a grey haze, during daylight! He reckoned a camera would pick it up better.

Edit: uptick in Kp index on dusk on east coast:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Stok's picture
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Stok Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 7:37pm

Geez it was pretty special last night. When down to the local beachie and it was beams of vertical light, the horizontal greens and the lovely red shades. The lights where also flashing at some times, like someone was playing with a spotlight against clouds. On the drive home it flared up massively, the whole sky was red and green, even from the street. Absolutely incredible.

Looking pretty dark out there now, and seeing lots of cars driving around on the surf cams. Reckon it'll be busy!

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Supafreak Monday, 13 May 2024 at 6:53am

Photos from around the world in this link . Tasmania IMG-7310https://x.com/itsjackcohen/status/1789290289246490912?s=46

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truebluebasher Monday, 13 May 2024 at 7:49pm

Dedicated to swellnet's Southern Sky Surfers...
Thanks for the sharing the majesty

Psychedelic Knights of Southern Lights