Submitted by thermalben on Tue, 09/26/2017 - 10:54
Figure the forums was the best place for this.. sent in by Swellnet reader John a few weeks ago. It's out of my area of expertise but I'm curious...
"Have you ever considered the link between solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams; and the 'turbo-charging' of existing weather systems? Pertinent at present as we have an X Class flare (9.3) inbound, on top of a CME presently affecting us, plus a coronal hole stream... and... that very large hurricane breaking records as it bears down on Cuba/Florida.
The basic premise is that solar particles bombard the earth's upper atmosphere with extra hydrogen ions in solar storm conditions, IIRC energy of this plus H joining with O in upper atmosphere adds to the storm/adds water. As earth's magnetic fields weaken (happening) the chances of solar particles getting through increases. I'd be fascinated to see if these conditions correlated with the stories Swellnet sometimes runs on sub tropical lows intensifying in the southern ocean, or bombing ECLs".
"This is a pointer in the direction of how the sun may influence storms on earth."
"And here is another on the interaction between O2 and H in the upper atmosphere, some papers cited leading to hypothesis water can be created via interaction between cosmic rays and (for want of better word) ascending O2."
"Hope this is interesting even if the presentation style is a bit over the top."
Bump to thread, here's a good overview of how Ben Davidson's research led him to discover the sun "electromagnetically forcing short term weather events and seismic events," in the past few years, published papers mentioned as well.
Wow interesting, will have to have a closer look at all of this!
& here we are again, relaying another of Ben's specials... it appears the mechanism of how geomagnetic storms affect weather systems has been identified, relevant paper
"Evolution of Extratropical Cyclones During Disturbed Geomagnetic Conditions"
A.A. Karakhanyan, S.I. Molodyk
Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
Explained in first 4 minutes of this link:
Basically, in increased geomagnetic conditions, surface area is heated, cyclone intensifies, vortex of cyclone dissipates that energy upward, if I understand it correctly. Ben & Craig, what do you think? Also, can we try to look for a link the next time we get a southern ocean low that bombs (24HPa in 24 hours I think?) - can we go looking for a solar link? That would be a fun Swellnet project :)
I had a good look at this last week VJ and it's super interesting and I think there's lots of merrit to it.
As you say, lets look at the next CME and see if it affects any current storms.
I did have a check to see if there were any current major CME's affecting the storms in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean this weekend, but alas nothing..
No worries, there are set to be less CMEs/sunspots as we head into solar minimum, but they will still occur. Keep an eye on coronal holes as well, these are increasing in size and can create similar results with their particle flow. The holes are increasing in size as a result of the solar minimum, too, I think.
The catch is that as the sun heads to minimum and solar irradiance is falling (precipitously, if the ULYSSES spacecraft data was accurate) - the earth's magnetosphere is also falling in protective capacity quite a lot. So impact of storms/CME's on earth can potentially be higher (weather, health, electronics).
BOM has maps of Australian Region estimated K index as a rough measure of impact here. Australia is part of one of the more magnetically protected parts of the planet (no idea why).
I note Craig's new article XXL swell for southern Australia
Coronal hole stream impact 24/10/17 ramped into peak of KP5 @ 1800 UTC
Second KP 5 peak 0900 25/10/17 UTC
I note Australian region saw a peak AEST 7AM 26/10/17 of KP4 at both Launceston and Hobart
So there's some energy about
The storm looks like it was going to be big anyway, wonder if there is any way to monitor how it progressed at these times? At 1800 UTC the WA region would almost be facing away from the Sun? If that makes any difference?
Ben & Craig, have I got a treat for you:
from the abstract:
"A series of studies during the last decade have shown clear evidence of solar‐wind‐related periodicities in the variations of different parameters of the lower (troposphere/stratosphere) and upper (thermosphere/ionosphere) atmosphere, over the high latitude regions. This commentary is prompted by a recent study of the fluctuations of neutral density, winds and temperatures near 90 km, which provides evidence of such a solar‐wind‐related response in the mesosphere as well. It is timely to point out to the wider geophysical community that solar wind responses at different altitudes strongly indicate that the whole atmospheric column has a response to solar wind high‐speed streams, something that few atmospheric scientists would have anticipated 10 years ago."
Thanks VJ - I'll check it out when I get a moment.
so happy to see more interest in this interconnectivity. I tried to lead mitchvg along this path once when I hinted at thermal vents and heating currents impacted water layers or pressure within water- which if analysed more would show that the kp rises also correlate with tectonic plate activity and atmospheric activity. Picture the earth as a cell and the cell undertakes symbiosis externally and internally with all processes having an amplification in some respect. I not the einstein but can can visualise the process, in fact it becomes obvious when you think about the macrocosm.
Good stuff Dave, never thought as a surfer I'd have an eye on the kp index so closely. Didn't even know what it was! As the magnetosphere weakens (being measured now) we will be more susceptible to solar wind/events, and that includes all this wonderful info tech we use. There are quite a few groups having success predicting earthquakes using a solar model presently (eg: The Disaster Prediction App). A wildcard is volcanic activity; historical analysis reveals upticks during Solar Minimums. I vividly remember Pinatubo in 1990/1 and the sunsets it gave WA. Would love to do a fully researched thread on the inbound Grand Solar Minimum, there are some very sobering implications.
But for this thread I'll try to stick to published papers and focus on how solar changes affect our weather directly.
Quick bump, with Hurricane Florence bearing down on East Coast US and super typhoon Manghut also in the north western Pacific, there was a geomagnetic storm of KP5 (measured NOAA, Boulder Colorado) that began Sept 10 1830UTC. I wonder if the storms strengthened around this time, is there a way to measure?
Here is another paper:
"Consequently, we have shown that a relatively localized
and small-amplitude solar influence on the upper polar
atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear
evolution of atmospheric dynamics on critical processes such
as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice .
In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby
wavefield, which is key in determining the trajectory of
storm tracks . The configuration of the North Atlantic jet
stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing .
In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking
events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the
jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high
So, here we have a mechanism whereby solar input affects the structure of Rossby waves. If you've been following the weather lately, some pretty crazy stuff has been happening - Hokkaido August earliest snow since resort records began in 1974, Morocco (!) early snowfall 3rd year in row, epic storm in southern Europe, mideast getting a year worth of rain in a day. Much of this weather seems to have large or intense high/low pressure systems (related to the Rossby waves) either stalling or extending far further toward the equator. On the sun and magnetic sides we know solar output is dropping fast after the solar maximum, and we have measured Earth's magnetic fields falling in their intensity. The magnetic poles are moving quickly as well currently.
Interesting stuff johnno. You have to love a non-linear effect. The Butterfly Effect ...... without the butterfly.
Yes, totally. Thank you for the challenge of finding published papers btw, there are so many inputs from both ourselves and our surrounding world/solar system - the scientist that puts all of them together in a model accurately is going to be well regarded!
I have mentioned Solar winds an$ people’s stidies into longer term climate cycles , a few years back in the ENSO threads .
Their effect on the PDO and QBO have long been mentioned in some of the lesser convinced climate circles . And is in fact a big sticking point for some more notorious climate deniers .
I definitely believe in Atmosperic tidal phenomenon , the Hydrogen theories would also tie in with this sort of influence .
" SA's Reserve Capacity "
Intriguing Southey - do you have links to your mentions above, or any links to articles on this?
Is the Atmospheric tidal phenomenon the same thing as the Atmospheric River/ARkstorm concept?
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling
Rapid intensification of tropical storms tends to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind.
Solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling generates gravity waves.
Atmospheric gravity waves launched from high latitudes can reach tropical cyclones.
Atmospheric gravity waves can trigger moist instabilities leading to convective bursts.
Convective bursts have been linked to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.
Wow, there you have it.
"The results indicate that rapid intensification of tropical storms tends to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes or coronal mass ejections."
There are more things twixt heaven and earth than our models are measuring...
Cross posting from the 'biggest wave ever' thread. The plot thickens:
From the abstract:
"A comprehensive study of all superstorms (minimum Dst ≤ ‐250 nT) occurring during the space age (after 1957) and their interplanetary and solar causes has been performed. Most superstorms were driven solely by the sheath preceding an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or by a combination of the sheath and an ICME magnetic cloud (MC). "
solar flare in the 7's inbound, watch those storms :)
very wintery stormy morning here
Oh interesting, when was the 7 created and is it hitting now, or in a couple of days?
Hang on, will research
It's the Swellnet of space ;)
"WEAK CME IMPACT EXPECTED TOMORROW: A slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on May 11th. The weak impact could cause geomagnetic activity around Earth's poles and might spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Auroras could appear as far south as the US-Canadian border. "
So maybe not a biggie.
If you scroll down about 4 chart lines on this site, you see the ENLIL Solar Wind Spiral, my favourite, it's like a little Windy for the Sun and inner solar system. Earth is the Yellow dot and this CME is aimed about 80 degrees away from a direct hit on us.
Not day to day space weather, but Journal of Geoscience (no less) paper linking extinction events to minima in earth's magnetic field strength:
"Plain Language Summary
The strength of Earth's magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultra‐violet radiation (UVR) to Earth's surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40 thousand years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13 thousand years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200 thousand years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y‐chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength which implies a long‐term role for UVR in human evolution. New fossil finds, improved fossil dating, knowledge of the past strength of Earth's magnetic field, and refinements in the human evolutionary tree, are sharpening the focus on a possible link between UVR arriving at the Earth's surface, magnetic field strength, and events in mammalian evolution."
Currently, solar output is falling, earth's magnetic field is weakening and becoming more erratic, as the magnetic poles accelerate their movement toward Siberia and out of Antarctica toward Perth, respectively.
We are also currently in an extinction event, worldwide.
Pretty crazy that magnetic north actually moves and also over time will actually completely spin south, sound like complete BS but it's a real scientific phenomenon.
That happens roughly every 400,000 years and we are well overdue as has been 780,000 years since last flip
Anyway good related read
And a NASA link on it for the skepticshttps://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/29dec_magneticfield.html
stupid magnetic north...if only grid north and magnetic north lined up.
but that would be boring, Chook!
Gotta make scouts earn their badges somehow.
Gotta remember this old chestnut.
Here's a bit more on the wandering magnetic poles:
Interesting about the previous large mammalian die-offs (will read up at some point), but I'm pretty sure the current mass extinction events are mostly due to human degradation/fragmentation/removal of habitat, pollution, human persecution, introduction of pest species etc.
All that too Terminal. It will take a polymath to see how it all intersects, and a very brilliant one at that.
So here's an update, Hurricane Dorian weakening after trashing Grand Bahama.
Its run in has coincided with the first large scale solar storm in a long time. Ben Davidson explains it better than I can, will post links that should stay up online for a while. He notes that coronal hole streams had impacted when the Hurricane was on the night side of the planet and so did not add further to it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UNsdOTAowEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J8EaH-mHBw
Apparently there is a significant planetary alignment occuring at present, and Ben speculates as to it intensifying sunspot action. Think: everything is connected.
EPIC thread. Gonna go back and read through em