Solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams

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thermalben started the topic in Tuesday, 26 Sep 2017 at 10:54am

Figure the forums was the best place for this.. sent in by Swellnet reader John a few weeks ago. It's out of my area of expertise but I'm curious...

"Have you ever considered the link between solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams; and the 'turbo-charging' of existing weather systems?  Pertinent at present as we have an X Class flare (9.3) inbound, on top of a CME presently affecting us, plus a coronal hole stream... and... that very large hurricane breaking records as it bears down on Cuba/Florida.

The basic premise is that solar particles bombard the earth's upper atmosphere with extra hydrogen ions in solar storm conditions, IIRC energy of this plus H joining with O in upper atmosphere adds to the storm/adds water.  As earth's magnetic fields weaken (happening) the chances of solar particles getting through increases.  I'd be fascinated to see if these conditions correlated with the stories Swellnet sometimes runs on sub tropical lows intensifying in the southern ocean, or bombing ECLs".

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thermalben commented Tuesday, 26 Sep 2017 at 10:56am

"This is a pointer in the direction of how the sun may influence storms on earth."

"And here is another on the interaction between O2 and H in the upper atmosphere, some papers cited leading to hypothesis water can be created via interaction between cosmic rays and (for want of better word) ascending O2." 

"Hope this is interesting even if the presentation style is a bit over the top."

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 2 Oct 2017 at 8:02pm

Bump to thread, here's a good overview of how Ben Davidson's research led him to discover the sun "electromagnetically forcing short term weather events and seismic events," in the past few years, published papers mentioned as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msg7XO5YQFI

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Tuesday, 3 Oct 2017 at 7:39am

Wow interesting, will have to have a closer look at all of this!

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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 12:14pm

& here we are again, relaying another of Ben's specials... it appears the mechanism of how geomagnetic storms affect weather systems has been identified, relevant paper

"Evolution of Extratropical Cyclones During Disturbed Geomagnetic Conditions"
A.A. Karakhanyan, S.I. Molodyk
Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia

Explained in first 4 minutes of this link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4

Basically, in increased geomagnetic conditions, surface area is heated, cyclone intensifies, vortex of cyclone dissipates that energy upward, if I understand it correctly. Ben & Craig, what do you think? Also, can we try to look for a link the next time we get a southern ocean low that bombs (24HPa in 24 hours I think?) - can we go looking for a solar link? That would be a fun Swellnet project :)

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Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 12:20pm

I had a good look at this last week VJ and it's super interesting and I think there's lots of merrit to it.

As you say, lets look at the next CME and see if it affects any current storms.

I did have a check to see if there were any current major CME's affecting the storms in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean this weekend, but alas nothing..

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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 12:34pm

No worries, there are set to be less CMEs/sunspots as we head into solar minimum, but they will still occur. Keep an eye on coronal holes as well, these are increasing in size and can create similar results with their particle flow. The holes are increasing in size as a result of the solar minimum, too, I think.

The catch is that as the sun heads to minimum and solar irradiance is falling (precipitously, if the ULYSSES spacecraft data was accurate) - the earth's magnetosphere is also falling in protective capacity quite a lot. So impact of storms/CME's on earth can potentially be higher (weather, health, electronics).

BOM has maps of Australian Region estimated K index as a rough measure of impact here. Australia is part of one of the more magnetically protected parts of the planet (no idea why).
Home page:

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/3/1

K index:

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Geophysical/1/3/1

Happy hunting!

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 3:26pm

I note Craig's new article XXL swell for southern Australia
Coronal hole stream impact 24/10/17 ramped into peak of KP5 @ 1800 UTC
Second KP 5 peak 0900 25/10/17 UTC
I note Australian region saw a peak AEST 7AM 26/10/17 of KP4 at both Launceston and Hobart
So there's some energy about

The storm looks like it was going to be big anyway, wonder if there is any way to monitor how it progressed at these times? At 1800 UTC the WA region would almost be facing away from the Sun? If that makes any difference?

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 18 Jun 2018 at 5:32pm

Ben & Craig, have I got a treat for you:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018JA025411

from the abstract:

"A series of studies during the last decade have shown clear evidence of solar‐wind‐related periodicities in the variations of different parameters of the lower (troposphere/stratosphere) and upper (thermosphere/ionosphere) atmosphere, over the high latitude regions. This commentary is prompted by a recent study of the fluctuations of neutral density, winds and temperatures near 90 km, which provides evidence of such a solar‐wind‐related response in the mesosphere as well. It is timely to point out to the wider geophysical community that solar wind responses at different altitudes strongly indicate that the whole atmospheric column has a response to solar wind high‐speed streams, something that few atmospheric scientists would have anticipated 10 years ago."

Enjoy :)

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thermalben commented Monday, 18 Jun 2018 at 5:50pm

Thanks VJ - I'll check it out when I get a moment.

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davetherave commented Monday, 18 Jun 2018 at 8:34pm

so happy to see more interest in this interconnectivity. I tried to lead mitchvg along this path once when I hinted at thermal vents and heating currents impacted water layers or pressure within water- which if analysed more would show that the kp rises also correlate with tectonic plate activity and atmospheric activity. Picture the earth as a cell and the cell undertakes symbiosis externally and internally with all processes having an amplification in some respect. I not the einstein but can can visualise the process, in fact it becomes obvious when you think about the macrocosm.

davetherave

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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 19 Jun 2018 at 9:30pm

Good stuff Dave, never thought as a surfer I'd have an eye on the kp index so closely. Didn't even know what it was! As the magnetosphere weakens (being measured now) we will be more susceptible to solar wind/events, and that includes all this wonderful info tech we use. There are quite a few groups having success predicting earthquakes using a solar model presently (eg: The Disaster Prediction App). A wildcard is volcanic activity; historical analysis reveals upticks during Solar Minimums. I vividly remember Pinatubo in 1990/1 and the sunsets it gave WA. Would love to do a fully researched thread on the inbound Grand Solar Minimum, there are some very sobering implications.
But for this thread I'll try to stick to published papers and focus on how solar changes affect our weather directly.

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 13 Sep 2018 at 5:37pm

Quick bump, with Hurricane Florence bearing down on East Coast US and super typhoon Manghut also in the north western Pacific, there was a geomagnetic storm of KP5 (measured NOAA, Boulder Colorado) that began Sept 10 1830UTC. I wonder if the storms strengthened around this time, is there a way to measure?

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 9:34pm

Here is another paper:

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045001/pdf

Pertinent quote:

"Consequently, we have shown that a relatively localized
and small-amplitude solar influence on the upper polar
atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear
evolution of atmospheric dynamics on critical processes such
as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice [23].
In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby
wavefield, which is key in determining the trajectory of
storm tracks [24]. The configuration of the North Atlantic jet
stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing [25].
In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking
events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the
jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high
pressure [26]."

So, here we have a mechanism whereby solar input affects the structure of Rossby waves. If you've been following the weather lately, some pretty crazy stuff has been happening - Hokkaido August earliest snow since resort records began in 1974, Morocco (!) early snowfall 3rd year in row, epic storm in southern Europe, mideast getting a year worth of rain in a day. Much of this weather seems to have large or intense high/low pressure systems (related to the Rossby waves) either stalling or extending far further toward the equator. On the sun and magnetic sides we know solar output is dropping fast after the solar maximum, and we have measured Earth's magnetic fields falling in their intensity. The magnetic poles are moving quickly as well currently.

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blindboy commented Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 10:24pm

Interesting stuff johnno. You have to love a non-linear effect. The Butterfly Effect ...... without the butterfly.

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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 4 Nov 2018 at 7:06pm

Yes, totally. Thank you for the challenge of finding published papers btw, there are so many inputs from both ourselves and our surrounding world/solar system - the scientist that puts all of them together in a model accurately is going to be well regarded!

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southey commented Sunday, 4 Nov 2018 at 7:37pm

I have mentioned Solar winds an$ people’s stidies into longer term climate cycles , a few years back in the ENSO threads .
Their effect on the PDO and QBO have long been mentioned in some of the lesser convinced climate circles . And is in fact a big sticking point for some more notorious climate deniers .
I definitely believe in Atmosperic tidal phenomenon , the Hydrogen theories would also tie in with this sort of influence .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 9 Nov 2018 at 5:19pm

Intriguing Southey - do you have links to your mentions above, or any links to articles on this?

Is the Atmospheric tidal phenomenon the same thing as the Atmospheric River/ARkstorm concept?

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 3 Jan 2019 at 1:51pm

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682618305765

Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling

Highlights

Rapid intensification of tropical storms tends to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind.

Solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling generates gravity waves.

Atmospheric gravity waves launched from high latitudes can reach tropical cyclones.

Atmospheric gravity waves can trigger moist instabilities leading to convective bursts.

Convective bursts have been linked to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.

Wow, there you have it.

"The results indicate that rapid intensification of tropical storms tends to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes or coronal mass ejections."

There are more things twixt heaven and earth than our models are measuring...

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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 8 May 2019 at 4:22pm

Cross posting from the 'biggest wave ever' thread. The plot thickens:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018JA026425

From the abstract:

"A comprehensive study of all superstorms (minimum Dst ≤ ‐250 nT) occurring during the space age (after 1957) and their interplanetary and solar causes has been performed. Most superstorms were driven solely by the sheath preceding an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or by a combination of the sheath and an ICME magnetic cloud (MC). "

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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 7:57am

solar flare in the 7's inbound, watch those storms :)

very wintery stormy morning here

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Craig commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 8:17am

Oh interesting, when was the 7 created and is it hitting now, or in a couple of days?

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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 10 May 2019 at 5:49pm

Hang on, will research

http://www.spaceweather.com/

It's the Swellnet of space ;)

"WEAK CME IMPACT EXPECTED TOMORROW: A slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on May 11th. The weak impact could cause geomagnetic activity around Earth's poles and might spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Auroras could appear as far south as the US-Canadian border. "

So maybe not a biggie.

If you scroll down about 4 chart lines on this site, you see the ENLIL Solar Wind Spiral, my favourite, it's like a little Windy for the Sun and inner solar system. Earth is the Yellow dot and this CME is aimed about 80 degrees away from a direct hit on us.

http://spaceweathernews.com/

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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 7 Jun 2019 at 11:13pm

Not day to day space weather, but Journal of Geoscience (no less) paper linking extinction events to minima in earth's magnetic field strength:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018RG000629

"Plain Language Summary
The strength of Earth's magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultra‐violet radiation (UVR) to Earth's surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40 thousand years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13 thousand years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200 thousand years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y‐chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength which implies a long‐term role for UVR in human evolution. New fossil finds, improved fossil dating, knowledge of the past strength of Earth's magnetic field, and refinements in the human evolutionary tree, are sharpening the focus on a possible link between UVR arriving at the Earth's surface, magnetic field strength, and events in mammalian evolution."

Currently, solar output is falling, earth's magnetic field is weakening and becoming more erratic, as the magnetic poles accelerate their movement toward Siberia and out of Antarctica toward Perth, respectively.

We are also currently in an extinction event, worldwide.

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indo-dreaming commented Saturday, 8 Jun 2019 at 8:32am

Pretty crazy that magnetic north actually moves and also over time will actually completely spin south, sound like complete BS but it's a real scientific phenomenon.

That happens roughly every 400,000 years and we are well overdue as has been 780,000 years since last flip

Anyway good related read

https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/magnetic-north...

And a NASA link on it for the skeptics
https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/29dec_magneticfield.html

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chook commented Saturday, 8 Jun 2019 at 12:22pm

stupid magnetic north...if only grid north and magnetic north lined up.

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 10 Jun 2019 at 12:57pm

but that would be boring, Chook!

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AndyM commented Monday, 10 Jun 2019 at 2:01pm

Gotta make scouts earn their badges somehow.

True
Virgins
Make
Dull
Company

Gotta remember this old chestnut.

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Terminal commented Monday, 10 Jun 2019 at 6:19pm

Interesting about the previous large mammalian die-offs (will read up at some point), but I'm pretty sure the current mass extinction events are mostly due to human degradation/fragmentation/removal of habitat, pollution, human persecution, introduction of pest species etc.

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 10 Jun 2019 at 6:24pm

All that too Terminal. It will take a polymath to see how it all intersects, and a very brilliant one at that.

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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 3 Sep 2019 at 11:45pm

So here's an update, Hurricane Dorian weakening after trashing Grand Bahama.
Its run in has coincided with the first large scale solar storm in a long time. Ben Davidson explains it better than I can, will post links that should stay up online for a while. He notes that coronal hole streams had impacted when the Hurricane was on the night side of the planet and so did not add further to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UNsdOTAowE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J8EaH-mHBw
Apparently there is a significant planetary alignment occuring at present, and Ben speculates as to it intensifying sunspot action. Think: everything is connected.

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seen commented Tuesday, 10 Sep 2019 at 7:56pm

EPIC thread. Gonna go back and read through em

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 23 Sep 2019 at 9:53pm

MORE papers on the topic:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682617306211

"Plausible modulation of solar wind energy flux input on global tropical cyclone activity"

"Highlights

Global tropical cyclone activity is modulated by solar wind energy flux.


Tropical cyclones are more intense with higher geomagnetic activities.


A possible mechanism is proposed and some evidences are also presented."

Really exciting to see the science start studying and looking for mechanisms on just how this works. There's that cause and effect!

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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 23 Sep 2019 at 9:56pm

And going slightly off topic and back to the falling magnetic field:

"From these observations, we have found that, since the mid-1990s, the magnetic field over different latitudes at 2.5 R⊙ and 10 R⊙ (extrapolated using the PFSS method) has decreased by ≈11.3--22.2% . In phase with the declining magnetic fields, the quantity m also declined by ≈23.6%"

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-019-1514-7

The times, they are a changin'.

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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 24 Sep 2019 at 6:04pm

Slightly off topic again, this one's for Davetherave, referencing the interconnectivity of everything and the forces out there. This should melt all your brains.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U70nrM_E2T8

OK, forgive the start which goes into internet conspiracy stuff. Watch it through and see the toys these guys create! They are manipulating magnetism/magnetic fields in a remarkable way.

10:55 "There is also a theory that gravity is a form of electromagnetic wave"

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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 25 Sep 2019 at 1:26am

bodybasherz defy & toy with gravity during barrel-rolls. (Ultimate surf pleasure!)

All creatures & forces expel vortices as balance or signals for play or warnings.
Cyclones/Volcano-Stoner Smoke Rings,Dolphin Frisbee, all vortex universal force.

Smaller votices can interplay & dance in opposite directions...
2 dust devils (Hotter than the sun) or 2 opposing whirlpools entwine then switch.
This defies Earth's Gravitational forces of Anti-Cyclonic hemispheric rotation.

Interesting is a skyhigh waterspout goes sea deep even up rivers but fails on land.
Skyhigh Thunderstorming rainmaking Dustdevil is gutted by water.
Again we thought this was the case but again we are no closer to local answers.

tbb has studied East Coast Waterspouts & this clip is rare in where this fuelled!
Here's one for davetherave,Ben,Ape Anon' ...can't wait to hear the local version.

Kingy Waterspout confused with a Willy Willy & near hoovered nipper's carnival.
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/lifestyle/beaches-and-fishing/epic-...

The inshore creeks & bays dictate the number & fuel for offshore waterspouts.
This was not meant to happen but almost did! That's why the panic...So Lucky!

Morning Glory - World's largest longest surfed Wave never needs flight power.
No doubt a Vortice can be bodysurfed in same fashion as mall anti gravity chamber
Big yes from tbb...wingless anti gravitational flight & nothing needed...No brainer!

Simply spray the invisible vortice to gain a leg up then surf the flow (No wing suit)
So long as you can see & predict the force it's easy! Sure! You may resemble a U.F.O.

velocityjohnno was alluding to surfing vortex fashion to spindrift a Hot Vril Chick!

tbb says why bother with hoverboardz when you can fly yourself.
Creepy fact: People bodybash storms as far as surfboardriders ride waves.
Twister survivors have freely flown near 400m...some with only minor injuries.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/storms/2006-03-22-tornado-survivo...

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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 1 Oct 2019 at 12:20pm
Craig's picture
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Craig commented Tuesday, 1 Oct 2019 at 2:07pm

Noted VJ.

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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 1 Oct 2019 at 6:13pm

KP5 might not seem like too much but it did produce a charging event. (Dangerous to satellites). If you view not long after I post this you will see the charging.

180 degrees, closest to Melbourne:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/seaesrt-time-series-180.png

Also GOES Electron flux currently coming back down after radiation storm levels on 29th:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-electron-flux.gif

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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 23 Oct 2019 at 5:16pm

This is really interesting:

https://solarisheppa.geomar.de/cmip6

Looks like they are going to include....

"Irradiance forcing

TSI: Total solar irradiance
F10.7: F10.7 cm solar radio flux
SSI: Spectral solar irradiance for 10-100,000 nm range

Particle forcing:

Ap: Daily planetary Ap-index
Kp: Daily planetary Kp-index
iprp: Ion-pair production rate by solar protons
iprg: Ion-pair production rate by galactic cosmic rays
iprm: Ion-pair production rate by medium-energy electrons

Please note the following differences to the solar forcing recommended for CMIP5:

New, lower TSI value: 1361.0 ± 0.5 W m−2 (Mamajek et al., 2015).
Time-varying solar forcing is provided in one file from 1850-2300 in daily as well as monthly resolution separately
Particle forcing (due to protons, medium-energy electrons, and galactic cosmic rays) included in daily resolution files"

...in CMIP6, due to report in 2022. "Do you mean to say, this stuff hasn't been included in this way, in all the reports prior?". Yes. This is a new one, and it's catching up to all the exciting science being produced in astrophysics.

Given we are seeing papers prove storms increasing in magnitude directly correlating with coronal hole streams and solar flares in this thread, what does that say for the conclusions the next report may draw?

Further,

http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2014/02/aa23391-14.pdf

this paper shows in 3rd chart the strongest solar maximum in the last 3000 years occuring recently, with a peak in 1950. That's a lot of energy to release into the system.

The science will keep evolving. It's really exciting as we can see the effects in real time!

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davetherave commented Thursday, 24 Oct 2019 at 10:52am

Jesus VJ, hard for me to understand a lot of that. But yes it is exciting to be in a place where our understanding of our Sun's involvement with our planet and the effects that connection is continually creating. Our planet is really like a cell with our atmosphere like a membrane and just like cells in our body there is a continual energy and information exchange going on through that membrane.

davetherave

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P'tai commented Thursday, 24 Oct 2019 at 1:14pm

Dave, that is a most insightful comment.