House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

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batfink Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 11:22pm

That’s good WOTL. Timber, then it will be nails, then electrical cord etc …

Inflation outlook is interesting as that might put the brakes on house prices. Ultimately though it is what people are prepared to pay and what banks will lend them. While I was growing up inflation meant that you could get a hefty mortgage and eventually inflation and your wage increases would leave you with plenty. Equally, banks wouldn’t loan you so much money, and may not give you a loan at all.

Now, with unsustainably low interest rates and low wage growth we are getting to a crunch point. Certainly everyone else is much more comfortable with getting in debt up to their eyeballs than I am. If inflation goes up, interest rates are virtually obliged to follow.

I don’t think gsco and I are at odds in our readings and opinions. The way this is playing out is anyone’s guess. I can tell you from what I am reading that nobody has the slightest clue how this all plays out. The biggest experts of Treasury, the RBA, think tanks, economists will occasionally admit that, but mostly they’re paid to continue the bluster.

As for MMT, it doesn’t cause increases in house prices. As a thought experiment, imagine if the government used all its free MMT money to build more houses. If they just kept building the housing market would crash regardless of other settings.

Where you spend any additional magic money tree is what matters.

By the way, although we haven’t really engaged in MMT in our history, we have run budget deficits for every year since 1901 bar about 10 (rough estimate). In a sense we run MMT every time we run a deficit.

Money is a strange thing. It only exists because we believe it exists.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 7:19am

cheapest brick and tile Legoland block of land in Lennox, 350-400 grand last year.
Now, 650-800.

Land only.

I think this is only getting started.

For most of coastal NSW and QLD anyway.

They just tick too many boxes for people who can get out of the cities.

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thermalben Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 8:05am

Forget house and land prices, check out the pubs!

Justin Hemmes has apparently bought a block of Byron land on Jonson Street for $50 million, and is said to be spending $20 million building a new venue along the lines of the Coogee Pavilion.

Hemmes also bought the (vacant) Cheeky Monkeys backpackers bar for $13 million. And in Vicco, picked up the Lorne Hotel for $38 million.

Sydney developer Podia paid $18 million for the Byron Bay Backpackers on Jonson Street. The old Woolworths (opposite Cheeky Monkeys) also sold for $120 million to the Mustaca family and they're building a new four-star hotel.

Stu Laundy recently bought the Lennox Hotel for $40 million and The Farm for $16 million.

Last year, the Byron Bay Beach Hotel sold to investment bank Moelis Australia for $104 million.

And, media reports a few months ago said that both Hemmes and Laundy were in a bidding war for the Pacific Hotel at Yamba, with an asking price of around $50 million. Dunno if it sold though.

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AndyM Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 9:28am

Looks like also the Bangalow Hotel Ben.
Mooneys are sitting on about $300 million dollars worth of real estate, including the Rails, Bangalow, Nimbin, Pacific and Great Northern pubs, as well as an entire block in the middle of Byron.
It may come as some consolation that Cath Mooney is one of the most disagreeable people you will ever meet in your life.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-93598...

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simba Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 9:50am

As a mate pointed out just wait for the borders to open when all the rich cashed up euros etc start arriving......i think hes right in thinking that the place will go thru the roof.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 12:03pm

Biggest recession since the great Depression sure put a brake on development.

not.

Unfortunately, you have to go inland now to escape the rampant and rapacious gentrification.

beach is for rich kooks.

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Sprout Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 4:27pm

Million plus price tags common in Open Sores, who woulda thunk it. Be a shame once there and Bruns are gentrified to ruination.

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donweather Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 5:41pm

thermalben wrote:

Forget house and land prices, check out the pubs!

Justin Hemmes has apparently bought a block of Byron land on Jonson Street for $50 million, and is said to be spending $20 million building a new venue along the lines of the Coogee Pavilion.

Hemmes also bought the (vacant) Cheeky Monkeys backpackers bar for $13 million. And in Vicco, picked up the Lorne Hotel for $38 million.

Sydney developer Podia paid $18 million for the Byron Bay Backpackers on Jonson Street. The old Woolworths (opposite Cheeky Monkeys) also sold for $120 million to the Mustaca family and they're building a new four-star hotel.

Stu Laundy recently bought the Lennox Hotel for $40 million and The Farm for $16 million.

Last year, the Byron Bay Beach Hotel sold to investment bank Moelis Australia for $104 million.

And, media reports a few months ago said that both Hemmes and Laundy were in a bidding war for the Pacific Hotel at Yamba, with an asking price of around $50 million. Dunno if it sold though.

Aussies will always drink piss!!!

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stunet Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 6:51pm

freeride76 wrote: beach is for rich kooks.

The man needs a mountain bike.

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bonza Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 8:56pm

MB hip as fark. Regional towns with access to MB also exploding.

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tango Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 9:06pm

The good old days are now.
Never a truer saying.

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groundswell Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 9:35pm

Ive recently been looking for places to move to on the east coast (as i prefer lots of waves close to eachother-compared to here where its 2hours travel between spots) and cant find anything on the east coast for under $350 a week. anywhere incuding canberra...How long untill those prices reach here? im only paying $105 a week here with a looked after gardens and pool to share with other tenants and loving it, would like a few more waves and beachies or wedges for sure but fuck paying that much i guess i moved here at the right time.Prices hopefully stay low for a few years especially after cyclone seroja.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 9:55pm

GS where are you, on the West coast? If so I can relate to big distances between spots...
Agree about lots of waves close to each other, the proximity makes life much easier to be a surfer.
iirc where you are, can you drive a bit south and find workable beachies, maybe a reef? Used to surf that way quite a bit.
Otherwise East coast Tassie, or has that now got exxy? Back in early 2000s I ran into crew getting houses on the central highway for 10-12K, then commuting to surf. How things have changed.

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groundswell Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 10:08pm

Yeah vj west coast kalbarri...2 hours might have been an exageration..theres jakes main and the area has about four other waves near jakes , one is super classy but fickle..and one swell magnet in NE winds thats called the shortest wave on the planet, by locals. kind of a fun peak tubey left and right so in town theres about seven waves and about an hour away theres four or so reefs which can get really good but often crowded with gero crew..sharky too..but East coast especially between gerroa and bawley point just has so many good waves i miss so much..always a wave somewhere for a mal at least..
I dont know how east coasters can afford the prices of rent though..i guess wages rise each year.

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dandandan Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 at 10:13pm

East Coast Tassie is changing very very fast. I had a mate buy a place for $219k three years ago, and had a mainlander knock on his door and offer him almost double that earlier this summer. Tassie housing right now is a full blown social catastrophe, but there's a handful of people getting super rich so it's impossible to get anyone to pay attention to it. Currently 10 places advertised for rent across the entire east coast of Tas, which surprised me as it's usually less than 3.

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freeride76 Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 7:29am

bonza wrote: MB hip as fark. Regional towns with access to MB also exploding.

yep, need flat country and ice heads to escape gentrification .

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frog Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 11:58am

MB keeps a lot of people out of the surf one way or another.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 1:24pm

Hey GS, those 7 waves and the sharky reefs were the ones I was thinking, those were the ones I used to surf... The SC NSW bit you mentioned is about the only coast I haven't really surfed, driven through quickly a couple of times, that's it. Are there slightly inland towns there that are still affordable?

We need to create a new urban sport that keeps people within urban areas. My suggestion is 'thwack'
1) Take mum's broom, remove the brush.
2) get tennis balls, and mates
3) each urban road becomes a fairway, you must thwack your tennisball to the end - deciding a par for the street beforehand.
4) because the broom handles are round and so are the the tennis balls, a hit can go anywhere
4) you must retrieve the ball no matter what - regardless of how scary the dog is

Edit: worked in the 90's for landlocked bored kids not near the ocean. Dunno if I'd recommend it in a world of home security cameras and all the stabbings I see on the news in the cities today

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 1:26pm

Hey DDD, any luck for you on the housing?
Just had friends move to the Tasman, away from the busyness here.

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Supafreak Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 4:07pm

Speaking to a old mate that lives at colins creek out kyogle way northern nsw about 1 hour from the coast . He moved there 30 years ago from Melbourne and has 70 acres and old timber house that was recently valued at $600,000 . In town at kyogle houses are around $300,000 to $350,000 according to him and there’s less people than when he first moved there . Not much work in the shire and children that grow up usually move to the big smoke for work . He wanted to sell up but after his evaluation and current prices elsewhere he can’t afford to move . Its beautiful country out that way but income can be a problem.

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groundswell Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 4:57pm

velocityjohnno wrote: Hey GS, those 7 waves and the sharky reefs were the ones I was thinking, those were the ones I used to surf... The SC NSW bit you mentioned is about the only coast I haven't really surfed, driven through quickly a couple of times, that's it. Are there slightly inland towns there that are still affordable?

We need to create a new urban sport that keeps people within urban areas. My suggestion is 'thwack'
1) Take mum's broom, remove the brush.
2) get tennis balls, and mates
3) each urban road becomes a fairway, you must thwack your tennisball to the end - deciding a par for the street beforehand.
4) because the broom handles are round and so are the the tennis balls, a hit can go anywhere
4) you must retrieve the ball no matter what - regardless of how scary the dog is

Edit: worked in the 90's for landlocked bored kids not near the ocean. Dunno if I'd recommend it in a world of home security cameras and all the stabbings I see on the news in the cities today

Haha those waves and the fishing can be really good better than east coast fishing i guess. ive got to get back into fishing. its a wait for waves around here compared to margs/gracetown area. i like bowes the waves there are racey but mellow takeoffs..good for me being rusty but sometimes packed.theres lots of fish too so if the waves arent working i can go fish.
I have only surfed twice in the last month as the winds been shitty or theres been no swell.blueholes has been breaking but its a boring wave.
Down in gracetown theres waves every day somewhere but i cant live there, no work. and too many GWS's
im too paranoid these days to surf there too often.
that thwack game or something similar could be a solution for crowds if its cheaper to live away from the coast and people start moving away from the coast in hunting better living. On the coast is pretty priicey and cheap prices here probably wont last.
There are no rooms for rent here besides the bnb's so prices will probably go up.
Im glad i quit smoking and drinking and mull too, lifes getting better on my wage life is good here just gets a bit boring waiting for waves. I used to play computer games to cure the same boredom but i cant stand them any more.except poker.

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groundswell Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 5:11pm

and ps yeah out in milton i think theres some cheaper properties or berri i havent really looked into towns away from the coast. I think there would be some places. Nowra has some cheap places but its dangerous i believe.i guess i could live there though. not far to some of Jervis bays best waves.

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 5:57pm

groundswell wrote: and ps yeah out in milton i think theres some cheaper properties or berri i havent really looked into towns away from the coast. I think there would be some places. Nowra has some cheap places but its dangerous i believe.i guess i could live there though. not far to some of Jervis bays best waves.

Speaking of Milton was up that way a few months ago first time in a long time and was surprised at how much that little town had changed, use to be one of those tiny forgotten farming towns that you just blast through, but now it seems to be a quite busy little trendy cafe type town.

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groundswell Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 6:31pm

Damn thats bad news. i used to like that place. Some really good mellow surfers lived there had some good surfs with a few in ulladulla reefs

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etarip Sunday, 13 Jun 2021 at 8:26pm

No bargains in Milton, Berry or surrounds. Pretty much still in the Sydney bubble, and that goes for demographic now as well as prices. Used to surf by myself on the regular but since covid it’s pretty rare to have the beach on my own. Not that it’s ‘crowded’, just a noticeable increase in the numbers in the water. Lot of kooks / VALs too.

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groundswell Monday, 14 Jun 2021 at 4:44pm

Thats a shame etarip..thats part of my favourite part of Australia, well was. Might have to save up for a caravan and start living like Torryn Martin. At guillotines in the carpark.

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stunet Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 10:20am

Letterbox dropped around town.

I wonder about people who drive into a community and, rather than admire its charm, livability, or the unique built environment, merely see it as an opportunity ripe to exploit. No concern given to the area itself, they won't have to live there, it's not their home.

Though I wonder how hard they'd fight if inappropriate devlopment went in next door to their own family homes?

Apologies to any developers out there, everyone's gotta earn a crust, just that things are tilting sideways around here and this will push it further.

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Distracted Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 11:09am

NSW State government now wants to push more housing in regional areas by pressuring local councils.
Development is already exploding and this will pour fuel on the fire.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/rob-stokes-p...

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dandandan Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 11:55am

Being a developer is a choice I reckon Stu, they're fair game. Hanging shit on those seeking profit at the expense of the community and the environment is one of the very few perks of being landless and broke.

(We've been getting those letters for about 3 years straight, with occasional hand written notes from families trying to buy houses too. Needless to say they go straight into the fire before my landlord gets a chance to see them.)

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Dx3 Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 12:19pm

dandandan wrote: Being a developer is a choice I reckon Stu, they're fair game. Hanging shit on those seeking profit at the expense of the community and the environment is one of the very few perks of being landless and broke.

(We've been getting those letters for about 3 years straight, with occasional hand written notes from families trying to buy houses too. Needless to say they go straight into the fire before my landlord gets a chance to see them.)

Yeh I see a big difference between a family house-hunting and wanting to buy your home vs a developer wanting to come in, knock it down and build medium density apartments or something like that so they can make off like bandits with the money with no shit given as to what the change will do to the community.

But you're exactly right dandandan, if you're a renter and you get one of those letterbox drops, burn that shit quick!

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dandandan Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 12:35pm

Totally agree. We had one from a neighbor down the road that was hand written by the kids in the family about wanting to stay in the suburb with all their friends and it was all a bit heartbreaking. Hard to know what the answer is beyond "change the entire financial system", which might be a bit of an ask. Can only assume a bust is coming for some parts of the country though. Even Launceston, where my parents live, has seen a jump in house prices up over $500k, but the wages are the same as 20 years ago and there's bugger all jobs.

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Blowin Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 1:09pm

The letter dropping scum missed the full stop after the seventh word in the last paragraph.

Perhaps worse is the developer who you already know is loaded to the gunnels with cash but who still keeps clear felling swathes of his small town to build the most shitful houses you’ve ever seen en masse?

No, you’re right. It’s the out of town fckwit who roots the joint, who really wants to go for a swim with a car battery hanging off his leg.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 3:50pm

Ive been trying to get quotes for some house plans/drawings of late, but no one wants to take on the work they all say they are too busy and booked up for months, only quote i could get is from a guy ive previously used but his price is now three times the going rate. (expect to fit me in)

Pretty crazy, if thats the situation elsewhere seems like this housing boom will continue and possibly continue to drive up house prices.

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astrosurf69 Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 3:59pm

25 year price rise ..House prices vs beer vs surfboards
Bought a block of land 25 years ago for 20k now be worth 200k
So a $25 case of beer should be $250 with same inflation
New surfboard $500 , should be $5000!
Think wages maybe have tripled in same time! Houses are way way overpriced , something has to give, but when!?

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ringmaster Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 4:37pm

At this point in time if you're in your 30's and upwards and are still renting with no significant savings you may as well forget about owning a home. (at least anywhere remotely livable and definitely within 50-70km of the surf) About all you can do is prey that you've got a good landlord.

Sad but true and it's only gunna get worse. Too many humans on this planet now unfortunately.

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Dx3 Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 4:39pm

Probably all comes down to interest rates to stop the ongoing price rises now. Will it crash it? Maybe, maybe not. Might just stabilise for an extended period, wouldn't be a bad thing at all for it to cool down.
But if property crashes badly in Australia then a lot of people are in for pain. Those that may sit back and think I'll just wait for the crash then come in and scoop up cheap property will be in for a rude shock (unless they are already minted), as banks won't lend so easily, the economy will be tanking as lots of people won't have money to spend so all services, retail, hospo will cop it, employment levels will drop etc.

I have absolutely no idea what property will do in the next 10 years, nobody really does, but only thing I'm somewhat confident in is that it won't be any easier for young people to buy, crash or no crash.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Jun 2021 at 4:48pm

astrosurf69 wrote: 25 year price rise ..House prices vs beer vs surfboards
Bought a block of land 25 years ago for 20k now be worth 200k
So a $25 case of beer should be $250 with same inflation
New surfboard $500 , should be $5000!
Think wages maybe have tripled in same time! Houses are way way overpriced , something has to give, but when!?

Thing is there is limited land and houses for sale or release, especially in certain areas like close to the beach or city.

There is not a limited amount of surfboards and beer.

A better comparison would be vintage surfboards or limited edition beer, like that Duff beer, although even these things don't/won't always increase in price, for example the demand for Duff beer might not be as great now as it was when the Simpsons was big, or even vintage surfboards from a certain era might not always go up in price, as the demand is from surfers of that era, so once that generation of surfers die, the demand might not be as big so prices might even drop..

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lucky-al Saturday, 19 Jun 2021 at 12:48am

stunet wrote:

Letterbox dropped around town.

I wonder about people who drive into a community and, rather than admire its charm, livability, or the unique built environment, merely see it as an opportunity ripe to exploit. No concern given to the area itself, they won't have to live there, it's not their home.

Though I wonder how hard they'd fight if inappropriate devlopment went in next door to their own family homes?

Apologies to any developers out there, everyone's gotta earn a crust, just that things are tilting sideways around here and this will push it further.

You're under attack Stu. Strengthen your defences and stay alert.

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groundswell Saturday, 19 Jun 2021 at 1:46am

indo-dreaming wrote: Ive been trying to get quotes for some house plans/drawings of late, but no one wants to take on the work they all say they are too busy and booked up for months, only quote i could get is from a guy ive previously used but his price is now three times the going rate. (expect to fit me in)

Pretty crazy, if thats the situation elsewhere seems like this housing boom will continue and possibly continue to drive up house prices.


Ive got to go back to being a domestic sparky instead of security technician...much better money and more work available.
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groundswell Saturday, 19 Jun 2021 at 3:04am

Also my mum had a carpenter/handyman give her a quote for some gutter work and work on her garage and deck. The guy said he needs the money up front so my mum paid him.
He didnt show up again ever, he seemed like a genuine bloke but i feel like killing him now.

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bonza Saturday, 19 Jun 2021 at 8:46pm

Agree with dandandan 100%.

That letter dropper is a A grade arsehole with a bullshit job. Same goes for any working in that industry. Bullshit jobs. If your successful it’s most likely because you r a psychopath.

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views from the ... Sunday, 20 Jun 2021 at 12:24pm

Looked up this ROKO windbag, filthbag, scumbag and his home page is full of shit. 60% ROI average +.
Yeah right!
And his office address on google?
Why don't they out themselves in the water/carparks at beach if they reckon they're doing us a favour?
Yeah right!

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nickca Sunday, 20 Jun 2021 at 12:55pm

Few posts up....etatrip.What’s a VALs?

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etarip Sunday, 20 Jun 2021 at 2:24pm

Hey Nick - VAL is Vulnerable Adult Learner.

Culturally appropriated it from BG.

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happyppl Monday, 21 Jun 2021 at 4:45pm

dandan the correct personality disorder re property developer is not pschycopath but sociopath...no compasion, narcisist, self centred, no compassion, no remorse, and ALLWAYS right.

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happyppl Monday, 21 Jun 2021 at 4:47pm

oops! apologies dandan i meant bonza

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bonza Monday, 21 Jun 2021 at 6:19pm

I stand corrected

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gsco Tuesday, 22 Jun 2021 at 12:31pm

nothing to worry about in Australia - we're only 15th on the country list of the world's greatest housing bubble of all time...: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-bubble-gfc-015923191.html