Could 2020 be the most uncrowded year Indo has seen in decades????
Sounds like hell.
This is a good read from a few days ago
"Coronavirus: Indonesia in need is the region’s nightmare
Jakarta’s coffin makers have been doing double shifts this week, burials in the city of 10 million people are up 40 per cent, and some doctors are already having to make decisions over which patient gets a ventilator.
Yet Indonesia ended the week with just 3512 confirmed COVID-19 patients and an official death toll of 306 people, a fraction of the health crisis Europe and the US are now facing.
With one of the lowest rates of COVID-19 testing in the world — just 73 per million people — and a government that until its first detected case on March 2 was still trying to market itself as a virus-free tourist destination, it’s not surprising Indonesia’s infection rates are unfeasibly low.
Indonesia’s COVID-19 mortality rate is hovering around 9 per cent, a sign that infection rates are far higher than official figures. The few laboratories capable of processing COVID-19 test swabs are reporting a processing backlog in the thousands.
Australia’s most important neighbour is nowhere near the peak of its COVID-19 pandemic, yet its chronically underfunded health system is already cracking under the strain.
Updated modelling from University of Indonesia researchers suggests Indonesia could now have a million infected patients, and that more than 120,000 people will die by the end of May if the government does not impose a nationwide lockdown and mass swab testing.
University of Indonesia epidemiologist Pandu Riono, part of the team whose modelling has recently shaken the Indonesian government from its torpor, says the country has just 8158 ventilators for a population of almost 270 million people. “Already some doctors in Jakarta I know are having to choose who gets intubated,” Pandu told Inquirer. “We need far more aggressive measures because the hospitals in Indonesia are very limited.”
Indonesia’s neighbours have been watching with rising concern as the government has consistently prioritised the economy ahead of public health, and fumbled preparations for a pandemic that has brought far more robust health systems to their knees.
Now Australia has made the extraordinary decision to withdraw its top envoy, Gary Quinlan, from its largest overseas mission this weekend for fear that, in the current crisis, Indonesia’s health system cannot provide lifesaving assistance if required.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has stressed the 69-year-old career diplomat, who has underlying health conditions, will continue his role remotely from Canberra and that the embassy, operating on a skeleton staff, will continue to function under his deputy, Allaster Cox.
But the move has underscored deep concern over Indonesia’s ability to navigate the public health crisis. Already one Australian citizen is believed to have died in a Jakarta hospital from COVID-19. Another was lucky to survive after contracting the virus and booking himself into one of Jakarta’s best private hospitals only to witness intensive care unit doctors and nurses with no protective clothing, and untested patients dying of respiratory failure. Indonesia has just two ICU beds for every 100,000 people and four doctors for every 10,000 people. Those doctors are dying at an alarming rate from COVID-19; at least 26 doctors and nine nurses so far because of a shortage of protective clothing.
The embassy’s warnings to expatriates to get out of Indonesia have taken on an increasingly urgent tone.
“Think about your and your family’s health. Critical medical care in Indonesia is significantly below Australian standards,” Quinlan urged in a recent message. “The Australian government cannot guarantee you access to medical services or a safe exit if the situation in Indonesia gets worse. Come back to Australia while you still can.”
Few doubt the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe in Indonesia but there are rising fears the COVID-19 health crisis could also cascade into an economic and security crisis.
“Indonesia is the worst positioned to contain the virus”, London-based analysts TS Lombard warned this month after comparing the readiness of Southeast Asia’s largest economy with Thailand and the Philippines.
“The combination of less rigorous social distancing measures and a weak healthcare service means Indonesia is the least likely of the three countries to stop the spread of the virus anytime soon.”
“It’s got the potential to be a far more dangerous situation than just COVID-19 and I think that’s also at the back of the mind of the Australian government,” says Indonesia Institute president Ross Taylor.
“Apart from losing potentially hundreds of thousands of people, there is also the possibility of social instability because of mass unemployment and people falling back into poverty. If we end up with an absolute catastrophe on our doorstep in Indonesia, what is the Australian policy on that? Are we going to help out like we did after the tsunami and Bali bombing or … do we say ‘sorry guys, you’re on your own’?”
Inquirer understands there has been heightened ministerial engagement between the two governments in recent weeks as Australia recalibrates its existing development programs to help the Indonesian government prepare for the crisis.
An unstable Indonesia is clearly disastrous for Australia. Should its health crisis spill over into a financial one — as the World Bank recently predicted — years of work building up effective partnerships against terrorism, people-smuggling, transnational and cyber crime could be at risk.
“In Asia, Indonesia is the frontline of defence against financial contagion,” a group of Australian National University academics warned in the East Asia Forum blog this week.
“Crises will spread throughout our region unless action is taken to steady financial systems against the rising tide of capital outflow. Southeast Asian countries … need lines of credit and support to stave off deep, long-lasting crises that will reverberate across the whole region.”
Australia provided $1bn in standby credits to Indonesia in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis, then again after the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. It offered $650m during the 2008 global financial crisis. But in the past five years it has cut aid to Indonesia by half — from $610m a year to $298m in 2019-20 — to help pay for the “Pacific step-up” policy.
University of Melbourne Indonesian law expert Tim Lindsey says the crisis should “remind Australia why Indonesia is so important”.
“Once this is all over Australia needs to look really seriously at its non-existent aid program and make Indonesia’s health and government systems a priority.”
Former Australian ambassador to Indonesia John McCarthy says the government may have to consider additional aid “not just on humanitarian grounds but also on security grounds”.
“It’s a question of government showing leadership and explaining why, even at times of enormous difficulties in Australia, we have certain responsibilities to the region. There is going to be a real need to try and get the Indonesian economy up again and we have to think of the stability arguments,” he told Inquirer.
“There are very strong nationalist and Islamist elements in Indonesia … and if the government was seen to be weak and the country in economic paralysis, those sorts of forces would be in a position to take advantage of that instability.”
Australia’s 1997 loan could not prevent the collapse of the Suharto regime the following year when opposition forces capitalised on the economic crisis to instigate deadly riots in Jakarta targeting the country’s minority ethnic Chinese community.
Now, again, there are signs of rising anti-Chinese sentiment as millions of poor Indonesians find themselves out of work and struggling to put food on the table.
“One theme has been that rich Indonesian Chinese have been fleeing to Singapore to avoid the epidemic,” the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict noted, citing online posts labelling Chinese Indonesians “disgusting losers and traitors”.
IPAC’s Sidney Jones says the potential for local outbreaks of unrest is high, particularly around the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan — starting April 23 — and the subsequent Idul Fitri holiday.
“The thing the government has to be worried about is food riots or mass frustration because of an inability to buy goods, and that’s why they’re being careful to keep announcing that people will get packets and cash,” she told Inquirer.
President Joko Widodo has already announced three social relief packages worth $40bn and is seeking loans and expanded credit lines from agencies including the New York Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund.
The government has recently opened a specialist COVID-19 hospital in Jakarta’s Asian Games athletes village, another in a former Vietnamese refugee camp on Galang Island, and just this week begun distributing PCR (polymerase chain reaction) swab tests after an early reliance on rapid antibody tests not designed to diagnose current infections.
On Friday, the Jakarta administration was also finally authorised to enforce lockdown measures put in place last month.
But Widodo is resisting a nationwide lockdown ahead of the mass homecoming (mudik) of more than 20 million people for Idul Fitri, fearing it could incite similar chaos to that in India where a snap lockdown has caused mass suffering for millions of people living hand to mouth. Instead he has offered financial incentives for those who stay put, and warned those who go home must spend two weeks in quarantine.
The policy is causing mass confusion and anxiety, and many communities are taking measures into their own hands. Some have erected plastic barriers at the entry to their villages. Others have prevented bodies from being buried in their cemeteries.
In Indonesia’s overcrowded hospitals, already exhausted doctors and nurses are bracing for an escalation of the outbreak to the remotest corners of the archipelago, where there is little to no capacity to deal with the virus.
“I’m very worried about mudik. Already we are missing many, many cases (because) our facilities aren’t capable of diagnosing them,” one Jakarta public hospital doctor, Andi Khomeini Takdir, told Inquirer.
“There are patients walking into clinics that don’t even have an X-ray machine, and they’re being recorded as suffering from cough and cold.
“If anyone falls sick in Jakarta, at least the hospitals are better equipped to treat them. I just can’t imagine the scenario in villages where the only facility is a community health clinic.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-indonesia-in-need-...
If Australia starts shelling out cash for Brazilian “ students “ who should have gone home weeks ago and ignores Indonesia’s plight , I’m going to go nuts.
Yeah read the article on Sunday.2weeks ago Widodo was saying 'drink jamu'and 'the virus doesnt like the hot weather'.Next he said he didnt tell the truth as he didnt want to create panic.Pathetic leadership....
Wow, that's horrifying. Can't foresee any travelling surfers heading to the islands for a long, long time.
No reported symptoms or cases so far in the Ments (Siberut) hopefully that is or remains the case, big worries for the indigenous out there.
Wow, that makes me so sad. We are so lucky over here.
"Updated modelling from University of Indonesia researchers suggests Indonesia could now have a million infected patients, and that more than 120,000 people will die by the end of May if the government does not impose a nationwide lockdown and mass swab testing."
I've now read some version of this happening in Indo for weeks.
And yet, the caseload remains stubbornly low.
Maybe, like almost all other modelling it will turn out to have been over-cooked.
We'll see.
Completely ridiculous figures being thrown out.
Took this screen shot on the 4th of this month. Thought I’d keep an eye on it as a bellwether.
11 days later and there’s 459 deaths total ....
"No reported symptoms or cases so far in the Ments (Siberut) hopefully that is or remains the case, big worries for the indigenous out there."
Was one case in Mentawai though on Sipora, believe a student, think he is just in hospital there.
The cases are low, but more likely because of lack of testing and if someone dies from the virus like say an old person the cause of death may not be reported as the virus, but could be reported as an other illness they have had or just old age etc
Hard to really know the true figures of cases and even deaths.
true.
but even so, right through out tropical Asia the numbers are very low.
maybe just a matter of time, or maybe the virus just isn't that infectious or virulent in the tropics.
They said that originally but have since said it's not true, some countries in the tropics are definitely behind in the cycle.
There is some weird things happening though.
This article is only from yesterday
Nearly three months into the Covid-19 pandemic and there is little to suggest that the Indonesian resort island of Bali is in the grip of a pending public health disaster with only 86 cases and two deaths.
That’s despite the fact the wider archipelagic nation is now widely seen as Southeast Asia’s slow-ticking coronavirus time bomb with the region’s highest number of cases at 4,839 as of April 14. Infections to date have been heavily concentrated on populous Java island.
“I find it puzzling too because it doesn’t make sense,” says Rio Helmi, a long-time Balinese resident who writes a regular blog on life around the mountain town of Ubud about the low number of cases on Bali. “We don’t have the data, but there’s been no sign of a spike in deaths.”
Nor are there stories of hospitals overflowing, a sharp increase in cremations or any other anecdotal evidence that the coronavirus is running rampant on the Hindu-majority island’s 4.2 million population, among them thousands of foreign residents.
More of the article below
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/balis-mysterious-immunity-to-covid-19/?fbc...
Funny thing about Bali is that there were thousands of international travellers passing through and the virus could have gone nuts, especially with the high population density.
Does seem to be some inconsistencies around the world with its impact.
It looks possible, or even probable that the virus may have quite a specific optimal temperature/humidity preference?
Daily deaths for the last seven days in Indo due to COVID-19 :
19
40
26
21
46
26
60
So in one day (yesty) they lost almost as many as we have in a couple of months. Whoever said they are behind the cycle seems to be right, looks like it is just getting started up there.
"Coffin makers doing double shifts, burials up by 40% in the last week in Jakarta", unless something else is happening in Jakarta, its an easy guess.
Hmmm couldn't imagine the infection controls being great in Tuapeijat.
I imagine the death rate will be well under reported in Indo.
"Coronavirus COVID-19 cases spiked across Asia after a mass gathering in Malaysia. This is how it caught the countries by surprise"
"Over in North Sumatra, health authorities are desperately trying to trace about half of the 700 Indonesians who attended the event."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-spread-from-malaysian...
This is most likely just Indo dreaming.
Cases and deaths are low, but so is testing, well blow down, if we just test no-one we will have no cases.
Don't believe the Bali figures, Australians returning from Bali are showing high rates on infection.
Plus quarantine is being underestimated, it's two weeks both ways, so a 2 week holiday costs you six weeks.
There is no evidence that higher temperatures is any sort of safeguard freeride. None at all. All those countries on the equator are also completely strapped for testing. No empirical evidence that local temperature makes a difference, although reasonable assumption about seasons being correlated, which means June to August may well be peak Covid season.
If you are thinking of going to Indo this year you have rocks in your head. Expect 2 week quarantine both ways.
Oh, by the way, reports are coming in of tourists being harassed by locals for 'bringing this disease into Indo'.
Have you really done your risk assessment?
Just out of interest,where are you getting these reports of harassment from and whereabouts in Indonesia is this happening?
well suck this one up fellas
https://www.tracksmag.com.au/news/watch-perfect-hts-with-no-one-out-546753
More clips here (not a bad article)
https://wavelengthmag.com/trouble-paradise-lockdown-mentawais/?fbclid=Iw...
Hard to watch in my current surf starved state. Waves really are beautiful things! The soundtrack of an Aussie drawling "there are no cunts here fuck" is a bit of a strange one but.
Horas - I haven't heard of any outright abuse under the guise of "you brought this here" but there is no shortage of video from Bali of bules being abused for sneaking over or under fences to go surfing, or famously the party that happened in Canggu a few days ago. It's anecdotal, but it very much seems like the Russians have cemented their status as 'most hated foreigners in Bali'.
.
stunet commentedMONDAY, 16 MAR 2020 at 9:10AM
"For sail"?
For Sale: Forced Sale! Four Sails
@DanDanDan,
That's a lekker South African drawl, bru. Guy's not Australian.
Haha I am genuinely surprised that people besides Australians are so flippant with the c-bomb.
Guy M was the only person I had an argument on our Mentawai trip last year. Not exactly Mr Congeniality - and I'm sure he thinks the same of me :-)
Sucks to be in that position, watching your life/business fall apart, while perfect and untouchable waves roll in.
I wonder if any have already thrown in the towel. Australian government has more or less said don't expect to be going overseas for leisure travel for another 12 months, which could rule out not just this season but maybe even the next for surf businesses across Indo. I've noticed places like Ulu Surf Villas offering incredibly cheap long-term deals.
Dan ....heard this classic truism the other day :
Americans are offended by use of the word cunt .
Australians are offended by mass shootings in schools.
i'm offended that there offended...bunch of caaarrnts!
I Remember a few weeks ago when they banned surfing in France. I was thinking “Ha Ha, that would never happen here” ...Nek minute.
I’m just glad my house doesn’t face the ocean. I’m right next to the ocean but we’re just on the wrong side of the crest of the hill. Watching waves you can’t surf all day must be a farken’ awful state of affairs aye.
Oh righto Dandan,thanks for that ,cheers.
Talking to mates living in Bali and they aren’t getting swamped at hospitals , balinese are taking it seriously and the streets are empty. If you leave your home and you can for any reason you must wear a mask . Beaches are closed and locals are getting pissed of with expats and tourists that don’t wear mask , have parties and ignore barricades in beaches and simply climb under them. But mostly people aren’t feeling the effects like westerners , not saying they aren’t infected but as you all know by the time your 10 if you’re still alive then you have had a variety of diseases and your immune system is pretty good . My balinese wife and daughter and myself migrated back to Australia 2 1/2 years ago . My daughter had BCG as one of her vaccines at Siloam hospital . In the 1950s BCG was rolled out through Australian , South Africa but not USA . It no longer is used in Australia but is in Bali and South Africa. BCG has been given to 4000 frontline medical staff in Australia during this crisis and the results won’t be known for a few months. It is also being used to treat patients in ICU. If you look at South Africa , Bali , India , death rate even if not reported 100 % they are not getting smashed like USA and Europe. I’m not saying BCG is a cure but these 3rd world countries seem to be doing better. Is it because of stronger immune systems ? Bali is already talking about reopening to tourism but unfortunately l can’t see Australia government allowing us to go . My wife is pretty stressed and hasn’t been home for 1 year . All expats of spoken on the phone say the same thing and that the dengue outbreak in ubud and the Bukit is more of a problem at the moment and the economic failure is what is going to kill more balinese than covid 19
whats BCG supafreak?
It’s a vaccine for tuberculosis , it also is believed to increase your immune systems overall , you get it at 1 month and a booster at 12 years , plenty of information about it on internet and csiro
thats interesting.
Sure is
https://www.publish.csiro.au/MA/pdf/MA16054
Might be time to get the family a Tb shot, what harm can it do anyway
I don’t know how to upload links from my smartphone because I’m not that smart but India has also used this vaccine and is now giving it to frontline medical staff , the evidence so far is that it lessens the effects of covid 19 , in India this vaccine costs around 17 cents , in USA it is between $100 - $200 , it has also been used for bowel cancer but USA doesn’t appear interested. Have a look at BCG report from dr in India on India today news
I think many people are going to be very surprised at how fast things open up and carriers start flying again, 3 months for domestic and 6-12 month's for international
Hadn’t thought about Asia having the BCG vaccine which could be lessening the Corona impact. In Australia it was given to the mid 80s but it hasn’t been used in Italy or the States for a longer time so be interesting if that is why it’s had a bigger impact there.
https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/bcg-vaccine-coro...
"I think many people are going to be very surprised at how fast things open up and carriers start flying again, 3 months for domestic and 6-12 month's for international"
Hmm i think that's a realistic outlook but i think many people are thinking sooner than that internationally.
This seems a bit optimistic
"Hotels in Bali may start reopening in May as island expects to welcome Chinese tourists in June"
https://coconuts.co/bali/news/hotels-in-bali-may-start-reopening-in-may-...
Our problem will be coming back to Australia though expect we will either need to be quarantined for 14 days or tested before leaving the airport.
Cant wait to see all the exploitative greedy surf entrepreneurs whom so graciously help themselves with commission from overpriced food and accommodation go bankrupt!
The locals(who could've done just fine with out foreign intervention)will still have homestays and surfcamps without some dip shit licking his lips whilst getting his cut.let it return to just how it was before some donkey with dollar signs stumbled upon a surfable wave.sold your sole for a profit or loss?shut up and go surf!!
Quick to rebound?I'm broke.u got money for an overseas adventure??
@Troppo, I'm guessing you're broke because you're an idiot who can't manage your money. Like 90% of the population. Need daddy or the government to come bail your ass out when the going gets rough.
If westerners didn't take risks and put their money where their mouth was and start businesses in Indo, the locals would still be dirt poor trying to milk a meager income from their fields, or earning fuck all offering poor to very average quality (uncomfortable and unhygienic) accommodation, which will only attract a very small proportion of the tourism population being surfers or young poor backpackers.
Standard of living, standard of healthcare and education would remain stagnant and population growth will likely explode to unsustainable levels, based on R and K population selection theory (look it up). There would be no pensions or access to public health care or education. Diseases and wide spread poverty will likely be the result.
Many foreign tourism operators (no where near enough) pay hotel tax at a minimum plus contribute to their staff pensions and healthcare funds which puts the local staff and their families miles ahead from where they would have been otherwise. Not to mention the flow on effects of an increase in 'wealthy' tourists spending their money on local indo businesses throughout their stay at western owned accommodation.
I'm not saying the west hasn't gone overboard and not exploited Indo for their own profit margins, alot have, but we can't throw the baby out with the bath water. The indo government have made massive strides in the last few years to reduce corruption and provide a better life for it's people and country. They are on the up, and they are poised perfectly to leverage their country's prosperity by utilising tourism and foreign investment in a sustainable way.
As an aside, I personally know of unscrupulous Indo owned operators who have and do take advantage of the locals, taking large profit margins and not giving back in the form of taxes and staff benefits. However, I don't think they will last long in Joko Widodo's new Indonesia.
@mishad thankyou,I'm guessing you're an idiot who's about to loose your inheritance and or drug money you've been laundering without considering failures in tourism?(look it up).
'Not to mention the flow on effects of an increase in 'wealthy' tourists spending their money on local indo businesses throughout their stay at western owned accommodation.
the rhetoric I'd expect.
STAY IN A VILLAGE!!NOT A VILLA....
Update on Bali here https://www.baliwaves.com/2020/05/bali-lock-down-corona-virus-march-2020/
The Oz and Indo governments should allow myself and a few handpicked specialists to fly to Bali immediately and commence aid work. Specifically focussed on providing economic relief to those warungs serving delicious Balinese food adjacent to world class waves.
The Bintang factory sounds like it could do with a massive leg up also. I’m sure that we could facilitate some form of reliable product consumption in order to get the wheels of industry turning once more.
QANTAS could fly us over gratis cause it’s a mercy mission.
Who feels like it’s time to give back to Bali and would volunteer their time and efforts for this thankless task ?
Will this virus mean uncrowded perfect waves in Indo?
Me and Blowin touched on this conversation in another thread, but i think it deserves a thread of it's own, and i have to admit my early analyst was a bit off, i think Blowin was closer to the money, i didn't really take into account things like 14 day quarantine that will turn a guys two week leave into a forced four week leave making a surf trip unrealistic to many, and also travel bans.
So yeah 100% this is the year to go to Indo, crowds will surely be way down in many area's and prices cheaper in some cases.
Heres some thoughts of what it might mean, happy to hear your's.
Charter boats: IMHO i think these guys will be hit hard possibly even knock a few right out of the game, which is a good thing because there is now way too many boats in offshore Sumatra region..
Big disadvantage charter boats have is they need a certain number of guest to even make a trip possible or to cover fuel expenses, and boats are high maintenance, a boat sitting they're doing nothing not only looses income from cancelled guest but also still needs to be maintained, so a double blow.
Plus if you did happen to get the virus, can you imagine being stuck on a boat for 10 to 14 days sleeping in tiny cabins with bunks.
Those still wanting to do a boat trip though, expect heavily discounted trips.
Edit: Just saw that Sumba issue, will repost the link below.
Resorts: Will also be hit, as those with more money and short period of leave, are more likely to stay at resorts, plus older cashed up surfers with families/partners that may have concern over them traveling, also families that are less likely to travel, also older surfers that are cashed up and want more comfort, but also more likely to have some health concerns even if slight.
Resorts should be able to weather the storm alright though.(will hurt any local staff who lose hours, but you would hope they would look after their employees)
Again expect some pretty good deals to come up.
Budget/local run: Will lose guest but will also be most likely pick up guys taking advantage of low crowds, their demographic is often younger guys who take a longer trip and often without concerned partners holding them back and may bring younger less likely to have health problems that put them at any risk.
Possibly some discounts but not like boats or resorts.
So basically if this happens, we could see much less charter boats floating about and less resort guest so places like Mentawai's, Telos, Banyaks could see much lower numbers in the water.
More budget area's like Lakey peak, Nias etc could also see lower numbers with some just not going but also others taking advantage of areas like places ,mentioned above being less crowded so great time to hit these areas instead.
Maybe the only area that may not benefit as much as others is Krui/South Sumatra as this year flights have again opened up direct to Krui.
Obviously Bali is going to get hit real hard so less guys in the water there too although doubt it will be too uncrowded as also the local and expat factor.
And similar deal from places like G-Land, Lombok, Simeulue, Java, Sumba (if can get in), Rote etc
So yeah if your up for it, this could be a good year to go to Indo, hardest thing is where to go and take advantage of lower crowd numbers
PS. I don't normally use the forum for spruiking purposes, but as some may know i manage booking for a local run budget surf camp in the Telos, obviously i don't want to see my local friends lose money and yeah i get a % cut on bookings too.
So if your a budget surfer and want to surf the Telos with possibly very low numbers in the water*, keep an eye out for any cancelations (only cancellation so far is 3 guys from NZ that were to come tomorrow) but might have more spots open up (currently season to about October is close to 90% full)
*Most resort's in the region cater for upmarket older crew, so expect they will lose guest pretty quickly.
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