Could 2020 be the most uncrowded year Indo has seen in decades????

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming started the topic in Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 1:42pm

Will this virus mean uncrowded perfect waves in Indo?

Me and Blowin touched on this conversation in another thread, but i think it deserves a thread of it's own, and i have to admit my early analyst was a bit off, i think Blowin was closer to the money, i didn't really take into account things like 14 day quarantine that will turn a guys two week leave into a forced four week leave making a surf trip unrealistic to many, and also travel bans.

So yeah 100% this is the year to go to Indo, crowds will surely be way down in many area's and prices cheaper in some cases.

Heres some thoughts of what it might mean, happy to hear your's.

Charter boats: IMHO i think these guys will be hit hard possibly even knock a few right out of the game, which is a good thing because there is now way too many boats in offshore Sumatra region..

Big disadvantage charter boats have is they need a certain number of guest to even make a trip possible or to cover fuel expenses, and boats are high maintenance, a boat sitting they're doing nothing not only looses income from cancelled guest but also still needs to be maintained, so a double blow.

Plus if you did happen to get the virus, can you imagine being stuck on a boat for 10 to 14 days sleeping in tiny cabins with bunks.

Those still wanting to do a boat trip though, expect heavily discounted trips.

Edit: Just saw that Sumba issue, will repost the link below.

Resorts: Will also be hit, as those with more money and short period of leave, are more likely to stay at resorts, plus older cashed up surfers with families/partners that may have concern over them traveling, also families that are less likely to travel, also older surfers that are cashed up and want more comfort, but also more likely to have some health concerns even if slight.

Resorts should be able to weather the storm alright though.(will hurt any local staff who lose hours, but you would hope they would look after their employees)

Again expect some pretty good deals to come up.

Budget/local run: Will lose guest but will also be most likely pick up guys taking advantage of low crowds, their demographic is often younger guys who take a longer trip and often without concerned partners holding them back and may bring younger less likely to have health problems that put them at any risk.

Possibly some discounts but not like boats or resorts.

So basically if this happens, we could see much less charter boats floating about and less resort guest so places like Mentawai's, Telos, Banyaks could see much lower numbers in the water.

More budget area's like Lakey peak, Nias etc could also see lower numbers with some just not going but also others taking advantage of areas like places ,mentioned above being less crowded so great time to hit these areas instead.

Maybe the only area that may not benefit as much as others is Krui/South Sumatra as this year flights have again opened up direct to Krui.

Obviously Bali is going to get hit real hard so less guys in the water there too although doubt it will be too uncrowded as also the local and expat factor.

And similar deal from places like G-Land, Lombok, Simeulue, Java, Sumba (if can get in), Rote etc

So yeah if your up for it, this could be a good year to go to Indo, hardest thing is where to go and take advantage of lower crowd numbers

PS. I don't normally use the forum for spruiking purposes, but as some may know i manage booking for a local run budget surf camp in the Telos, obviously i don't want to see my local friends lose money and yeah i get a % cut on bookings too.

So if your a budget surfer and want to surf the Telos with possibly very low numbers in the water*, keep an eye out for any cancelations (only cancellation so far is 3 guys from NZ that were to come tomorrow) but might have more spots open up (currently season to about October is close to 90% full)

*Most resort's in the region cater for upmarket older crew, so expect they will lose guest pretty quickly.

www.teloislandsurfhouse.com or follow us on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/teloislandsurfhouse/

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 1:46pm

Re posting this article here as relevant and to bump this onto the main page.

"Twelve Australians are trapped on a boat at an Indonesian port, blocked from disembarking their surf charter over coronavirus fears, and down to their last supplies of food and water."

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-outbreak-twelve-aussie-sur...

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 2:31pm

This will be a most excellent year to have your own self contained yacht in Indo. Pictures it now, Johnno tanned and fit, Sparkman & Stevens 46ft ketch, boards, young Ms in bikini, going from empty bay to empty bay like Alby Mangles...
It will also be a boon for private air flight. Now where is that flying boat I parked in the shed?

megzee's picture
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megzee commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 3:40pm

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1989/sparkman-stephens-sunward-48-3481996/
VJ, Found your yacht for you mate....
Let me know if you want me to do the pre-purchase survey inspection and delivery.....
Might need a couple of deckies for the trip.....ya know anyone?
Indo delivery....no extra cost

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 3:49pm

If this thing is anything like the GFC then you’ll be getting boats like that cheap as chips before too long.

Everything must go.....Crazy low , low prices.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 3:54pm

yep, yachts are first thing to go cheap.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 4:10pm
Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 4:18pm

Anyone else think Langkawi is a shithole ?

mickseq's picture
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mickseq commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 4:22pm

I was there during the volcano and earthquake disruption and got plenty of uncrowded waves, no one around anywhere and the best accommodation dirt cheap. I am booked to go again next week but looks like ill have to re-schedule.

I still stand by the fact there are plenty of breaks that have very little or no one on them, average they might be some times on some tides but compared to an average day in oz they can be epic and fun especially early morning glass offs

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 4:31pm

Those yachts are so nice. Learned on a S&S 26, very old school and after a while I was sailing it myself, getting alongside the jetties with no motor, etc. Used to love the Herreschoff 28s on the river in Perth too...

That's the future? Just watch out for Dennis Hopper and diseased bikers on Jetskis

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 4:53pm

I learned to sail on Mirror dinghys and a little Norman Wright then moved up to Hobies and Nacra cats.

A highlight once was sailing a 64 cat from Port Douglas to the Whitsundays, the skipper, me and another fella to deliver it to the wealthy owner. He said to help ourselves to the booze (and we did). Same boat i got offered to crew in the Darwin to Ambon yacht race, think it was '99. Anyway, twas cancelled that year because of a few christian churches being torched. Just kids having fun. Disappointed though to say the least.

If i had the means, i'd buy a yacht in a heartbeat. I love sailing. Suits my personality- there's always something to do on a yacht.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 5:12pm

Nice Zen, it was Pelicans, Mirrors, teenage rebellion with windsurfers and surfboards, then keelboats for me :)

Speaking of owning yachts, I shouldn't show you this then:

https://12metreyachtclub.org/12s-for-sale/

We were kids and dad would take us to see them go out of Freo in '87, it was epic!

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 5:23pm

Awesome VJ, i'm glad they keep those boats alive- you need very deep pockets though I reckon.

When we were younger we'd have access to Middle Head in Sydney (dad was in the army) and we'd have a crazy front row seat to watch the start of the Sydney to Hobart. Man i used to wish i was on one of the Maxi's.

I kinda have a little deal with myself, should i ever am parted from my beloved, i'll cash in everything, buy an ocean going vessel and leave, never to return.

To be honest it's just a daydream but nice to think about when i wake up and look out into the Pacific.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 5:26pm

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 5:47pm

Oops!

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 5:52pm

Zen an old boss was navigator in the 98 Sydney to Hobart, the story he told was chilling. A confident bloke, but he thought his time was up,
I like that finale Zen, have considered similar on occasion.

Back to Indo season - have any of you done it by your own yacht?

H2O's picture
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H2O commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 6:12pm

My dream too Zen!. Also started on mirrors (3rd nsw champs way back).

So .... Time share large cat . Circumnavigate every 2 years. Start Indo in early winter , sail east PNG etc early summer. Hawaii late nth hemisphere winter etc..... Crew chose slot / destination. Logistic nightmare but............

Pupkin's picture
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Pupkin commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 6:30pm

If you've got plenty of money and time, go for it.

Things could go pretty bad though. Especially regarding your wallet.

And how's the ex-pat FIFO guys? Things could get gnarly.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 8:01pm

Ive met quite a few guys with private sailing boats or catamarans in Mentawai's and Telos, lot of couples even families, met this one guy that had some nice yacht and it was just him and three smoking hot girls.

He never really let on what the circumstances were but im guessing they got a total free trip for a few weeks to months.

dandandan's picture
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dandandan commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 9:41pm

The economic impact of it is going to be the clincher, even if people ride it out they will be very spooked. I've met crew in Tassie who have already calculated they'll be 30% poorer than last year, even a coupe who work the festival circuit who are making plans to be homeless by the end of May. Lack of money or the fear of losing it will have plenty of people staying at home.

Me on the other hand, who has been stubbornly holding on to my savings against the advice of literally everyone for the last 8 years, is feeling a bit excited (however morbidly) about a few months in the islands this year. More than a few places I've avoided due to crowds will be on the list providing the borders don't shut down.

Fraser G's picture
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Fraser G commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 9:56pm

Heard on grapevine G-land comp off ...bummer yeah ...nah

brainiac's picture
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brainiac commented Sunday, 15 Mar 2020 at 10:19pm

Also throw in some dirt cheap airfares and bingo. I reckon it will be quite a few months before the self quarantine rule on return is lifted.

bigredcouch's picture
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bigredcouch commented Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 7:04am

Now that the self-quarantine rule is in place, do we think it is likely that borders will stay open for the foreseeable future?

Seems like the govt. has reached the compromise between shutting all international travel down and keeping the travel industry (just) going whilst allowing Australians to move about internationally if necessary?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 7:42am

Border restrictions will probably be lifted. The 14 day quarantine is Scummo’s way of getting around those pesky impediments to the economy, even if they are literally saving lives.

People shouldn’t freak about their mortgages. Scummo lives and dies by the real estate market.

I reckon homes in the worst hit areas will be valued at 50 percent less this time next year. Probably less being honest. . But before that Scummo will place a moratorium on mortgage repayments. Despite thoughts that the banks will protest this action , they will actually be pushy for it as they will not be otherwise viable when the bankruptcies start rolling in.

The government will bail out the banks via mortgage repayments and the taxpayers will again subsidise the speculative buying festival which is shelter in Australia.

How long can the government do this ?

Just more kicking of the can down the road I imagine.

But there is really so many unforseeable possibilities involved that I’m probably totally wrong.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 8:34am

[SOS] Please Share to Help Us!

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-outbreak-twelve-aussie-sur...

Indo Sovereign Borders is clamping down on illegal Oz Surfboat People.
With Dutto out of action, Indonesia are stepping up to shut down Surf People Trade

Surfers tested clear on arrival but once at sea / Indo surf spot...can no longer return.
Note: Do not go Surfing in the Surf...keep to Heavily Chlorinated Wave Pools.

13 Aussie Surfers (Newcastle mainly) trapped on Indo Surfie Boat.
At End of 10 day surf trip
No Service or Reception...only one brief visit on board & Oz Govt are informed.
Oz Govt are seeking permission to land / DFAT are seeking to assure supplies.
Port Waingapu Harbour (Mystery Spot X - see swellnet crew?)
Extreme low Fuel + Water & already eaten last meal
Missed all flights out & back home to Aust...+ add another 14 days Oz Quarantine.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australian-surfers-trapped-at-i...

https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/6678874/newcastle-surfers-stuck...

*Australian Border Breach
6 Chinese men busted trying to breach Oz Borders via Indonesia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/chinese-men-bound-for-australia-d...

spidermonkey's picture
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spidermonkey commented Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 10:05am

Cruised indo for 6 years on and off in a 10m cat, East indo is great for the cruising surfer good anchorages close to surf breaks good markets in most places to re-stock. My old boat is for sail on yacht hub....

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 10:10am

"For sail"?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 10:22am

Imagine spending a few months cruising around Spot X on that thing , Stu. Anchor up right next to the peak. No more long swims.

Then imagine yourself trying to get through a few pages of a good book and get an early night below as I open my 40th Bintang for the day , Stereo blaring so loud that it’s echoing back off the mountain range and the raucous commotion as I decide to drunkenly attempt to harpoon the 3 metre tiger shark lurking under the transom lights.

Good times....ahoy .

bigredcouch's picture
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bigredcouch commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 6:09am

Is this concerning for upcoming Indo trips? What does it mean?

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/17/covid-19-indonesia-suspen...

Sounds like as of this Friday Australians have to apply for a visa via an embassy in Aus, stating your reason for travel and some kind of health report.

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Ape Anonymous commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 9:58am

Irony: here here!

megzee's picture
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megzee commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 5:10pm

Prediction: ALL international travelers will be required to provide Corona Virus vaccination document to allow travel abroad to ANY destination worldwide.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:06am

Update: Aussie Surfers Stranded in Bali.
After being rejected from 2 Indo Ports & forced into lockdown at Sumba for 4 days.

Sunday night the Group made for Flores ...arriving Monday Morning.
(We assume they received supplies & fuel!)
Arriving in Flores ...The Aussies were again refused entry...(until)...

The following Tuesday afternoon authorities boarded the vessel.
Temperature checks were carried out and crew were cleared to land.

The Surfers plan to fly out from Flores returning to Australian 14 day Quarantine.

PS: Island of Flores made news for Giant Rats 115cm & Tiny People 110cm

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 11:29pm

Indonesia already has 32 deaths from 369 cases for a comparison we are at 7 deaths from 876 cases.

We will get on top of things eventually, but i cant see how Indonesia will 270 million people, 17,000 islands, terrible education on these type of things and limited medical care.

Even with a vaccine it could take a long time to get things under control, this whole thing is possibly going to change the world forever, but its also going to change how us surfers interact with Indonesia IMHO not just in the coming months but it could be years.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 11:59pm

absolutely indo, already a few rumblings

and its always the bule's fault when there's tension in town

bule virus not a cool combo

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simba commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 6:26am

This from surfer mag......
“At this point,” says Surfrider Staff Scientist Katie Day, “it is unclear if the COVID-19 virus is able to undergo ‘fecal-oral transmission’” —i.e., swimming in raw or undertreated sewage—“but the general consensus from the research community is that it might be possible.” This is, after all, how many a surfer (including yours truly) has contracted any number of other diseases and infections including E. Coli, MRSA, giardia, hepatitis… the list goes on.

simba

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 8:33am

hhhmmm...they are all bacterial or parasitic infections.

there must be some data about faecal-oral transmission for viruses?

edit, scratch that hepatitis is viral.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 9:46am

"absolutely indo, already a few rumblings

and its always the bule's fault when there's tension in town

bule virus not a cool combo"

Actually, it's always the Chinese Indonesians who are the scape goats in Indonesia when shit goes bad, i haven't read anything about them being under attack of late, but you could imagine with the virus coming from China they might get the blame from many Indonesians, even though most have been in Indonesia for generations, the ones i know cant even speak a word of Chinese.

My local friends have been obviously asking me to try to get them guest as now losing business, but yesterday a thought also hit me, we have to be really careful any guest arriving dont bring the virus into the region, i sure don't want to be responsible in part for bringing it in which could knock out older people or those already sick.

ilikelamb's picture
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ilikelamb commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 11:55am

From The Gaurdian a few days ago...
“There is also evidence of oral-fecal transmission of Covid-19 and that implies that analingus may represent a risk for infection”
(°_°)

simba's picture
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simba commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 2:05pm

analingus has a certain ring to it.

simba

I focus's picture
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I focus commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 2:30pm

Indo ports closing until April 5 sure to be extended no more charters.

Ferries still running for now

Crew I know heading to hide out in some unreal world class location............envy thinking uncrowded class waves hoping they all remain well.

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Lanky Dean commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 3:01pm

Plenty of other stuff to contract in indo.
Malaria much?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 3:35pm

Again, well stocked private yacht looking pretty good.

simba's picture
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simba commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 4:56pm
indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 5:15pm

Mentawai's are now shut to foreigners no charter boats allowed to depart from Padang and no foreigners allowed on ferry for two weeks.

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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 10:43pm

"The CMMID modelling indicates there are likely 70,000 undetected cases already in Indonesia, and potentially as many as 250,000, depending on two key variables — the death rate and the rate of transmission, which measures how many people one person is likely to infect."

Good read on situation in Indonesia https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-23/why-is-indonesia-coronavirus-deat...

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tubeshooter commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 11:33pm

Living on a peninsula , I,m waiting for the tanks to roll in and setup at the roundabout into town . And anyone who tries to stop me surfing a quiet bank better know how to handle themselves .

dandandan's picture
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dandandan commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 8:41am

Saw that the cave into Ulus has been closed. A friend is in Sumbawa and bunkering down there (somewhat foolishly) and is having the time of his life at the moment.

Reading reports that experts expect Covid to hang around the lesser islands of the archipelago for a very, very long time.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 9:57am

"Reading reports that experts expect Covid to hang around the lesser islands of the archipelago for a very, very long time."

Saw that too, if true which i can believe, even once under control here, we could be self isolating for 14 days on return from Indo or require testing on arrival.