Solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams

thermalben's picture
thermalben started the topic in Tuesday, 26 Sep 2017 at 10:54am

Figure the forums was the best place for this.. sent in by Swellnet reader John a few weeks ago. It's out of my area of expertise but I'm curious...

"Have you ever considered the link between solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams; and the 'turbo-charging' of existing weather systems?  Pertinent at present as we have an X Class flare (9.3) inbound, on top of a CME presently affecting us, plus a coronal hole stream... and... that very large hurricane breaking records as it bears down on Cuba/Florida.

The basic premise is that solar particles bombard the earth's upper atmosphere with extra hydrogen ions in solar storm conditions, IIRC energy of this plus H joining with O in upper atmosphere adds to the storm/adds water.  As earth's magnetic fields weaken (happening) the chances of solar particles getting through increases.  I'd be fascinated to see if these conditions correlated with the stories Swellnet sometimes runs on sub tropical lows intensifying in the southern ocean, or bombing ECLs".

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 26 Sep 2017 at 10:56am

"This is a pointer in the direction of how the sun may influence storms on earth."

"And here is another on the interaction between O2 and H in the upper atmosphere, some papers cited leading to hypothesis water can be created via interaction between cosmic rays and (for want of better word) ascending O2." 

"Hope this is interesting even if the presentation style is a bit over the top."

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 2 Oct 2017 at 8:02pm

Bump to thread, here's a good overview of how Ben Davidson's research led him to discover the sun "electromagnetically forcing short term weather events and seismic events," in the past few years, published papers mentioned as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msg7XO5YQFI

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 3 Oct 2017 at 7:39am

Wow interesting, will have to have a closer look at all of this!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 12:14pm

& here we are again, relaying another of Ben's specials... it appears the mechanism of how geomagnetic storms affect weather systems has been identified, relevant paper

"Evolution of Extratropical Cyclones During Disturbed Geomagnetic Conditions"
A.A. Karakhanyan, S.I. Molodyk
Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia

Explained in first 4 minutes of this link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4

Basically, in increased geomagnetic conditions, surface area is heated, cyclone intensifies, vortex of cyclone dissipates that energy upward, if I understand it correctly. Ben & Craig, what do you think? Also, can we try to look for a link the next time we get a southern ocean low that bombs (24HPa in 24 hours I think?) - can we go looking for a solar link? That would be a fun Swellnet project :)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 12:20pm

I had a good look at this last week VJ and it's super interesting and I think there's lots of merrit to it.

As you say, lets look at the next CME and see if it affects any current storms.

I did have a check to see if there were any current major CME's affecting the storms in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean this weekend, but alas nothing..

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 12:34pm

No worries, there are set to be less CMEs/sunspots as we head into solar minimum, but they will still occur. Keep an eye on coronal holes as well, these are increasing in size and can create similar results with their particle flow. The holes are increasing in size as a result of the solar minimum, too, I think.

The catch is that as the sun heads to minimum and solar irradiance is falling (precipitously, if the ULYSSES spacecraft data was accurate) - the earth's magnetosphere is also falling in protective capacity quite a lot. So impact of storms/CME's on earth can potentially be higher (weather, health, electronics).

BOM has maps of Australian Region estimated K index as a rough measure of impact here. Australia is part of one of the more magnetically protected parts of the planet (no idea why).
Home page:

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/3/1

K index:

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Geophysical/1/3/1

Happy hunting!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 3:26pm

I note Craig's new article XXL swell for southern Australia
Coronal hole stream impact 24/10/17 ramped into peak of KP5 @ 1800 UTC
Second KP 5 peak 0900 25/10/17 UTC
I note Australian region saw a peak AEST 7AM 26/10/17 of KP4 at both Launceston and Hobart
So there's some energy about

The storm looks like it was going to be big anyway, wonder if there is any way to monitor how it progressed at these times? At 1800 UTC the WA region would almost be facing away from the Sun? If that makes any difference?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 18 Jun 2018 at 5:32pm

Ben & Craig, have I got a treat for you:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018JA025411

from the abstract:

"A series of studies during the last decade have shown clear evidence of solar‐wind‐related periodicities in the variations of different parameters of the lower (troposphere/stratosphere) and upper (thermosphere/ionosphere) atmosphere, over the high latitude regions. This commentary is prompted by a recent study of the fluctuations of neutral density, winds and temperatures near 90 km, which provides evidence of such a solar‐wind‐related response in the mesosphere as well. It is timely to point out to the wider geophysical community that solar wind responses at different altitudes strongly indicate that the whole atmospheric column has a response to solar wind high‐speed streams, something that few atmospheric scientists would have anticipated 10 years ago."

Enjoy :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 18 Jun 2018 at 5:50pm

Thanks VJ - I'll check it out when I get a moment.

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave commented Monday, 18 Jun 2018 at 8:34pm

so happy to see more interest in this interconnectivity. I tried to lead mitchvg along this path once when I hinted at thermal vents and heating currents impacted water layers or pressure within water- which if analysed more would show that the kp rises also correlate with tectonic plate activity and atmospheric activity. Picture the earth as a cell and the cell undertakes symbiosis externally and internally with all processes having an amplification in some respect. I not the einstein but can can visualise the process, in fact it becomes obvious when you think about the macrocosm.

davetherave

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 19 Jun 2018 at 9:30pm

Good stuff Dave, never thought as a surfer I'd have an eye on the kp index so closely. Didn't even know what it was! As the magnetosphere weakens (being measured now) we will be more susceptible to solar wind/events, and that includes all this wonderful info tech we use. There are quite a few groups having success predicting earthquakes using a solar model presently (eg: The Disaster Prediction App). A wildcard is volcanic activity; historical analysis reveals upticks during Solar Minimums. I vividly remember Pinatubo in 1990/1 and the sunsets it gave WA. Would love to do a fully researched thread on the inbound Grand Solar Minimum, there are some very sobering implications.
But for this thread I'll try to stick to published papers and focus on how solar changes affect our weather directly.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 13 Sep 2018 at 5:37pm

Quick bump, with Hurricane Florence bearing down on East Coast US and super typhoon Manghut also in the north western Pacific, there was a geomagnetic storm of KP5 (measured NOAA, Boulder Colorado) that began Sept 10 1830UTC. I wonder if the storms strengthened around this time, is there a way to measure?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 9:34pm

Here is another paper:

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045001/pdf

Pertinent quote:

"Consequently, we have shown that a relatively localized
and small-amplitude solar influence on the upper polar
atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear
evolution of atmospheric dynamics on critical processes such
as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice [23].
In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby
wavefield, which is key in determining the trajectory of
storm tracks [24]. The configuration of the North Atlantic jet
stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing [25].
In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking
events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the
jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high
pressure [26]."

So, here we have a mechanism whereby solar input affects the structure of Rossby waves. If you've been following the weather lately, some pretty crazy stuff has been happening - Hokkaido August earliest snow since resort records began in 1974, Morocco (!) early snowfall 3rd year in row, epic storm in southern Europe, mideast getting a year worth of rain in a day. Much of this weather seems to have large or intense high/low pressure systems (related to the Rossby waves) either stalling or extending far further toward the equator. On the sun and magnetic sides we know solar output is dropping fast after the solar maximum, and we have measured Earth's magnetic fields falling in their intensity. The magnetic poles are moving quickly as well currently.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy commented Thursday, 1 Nov 2018 at 10:24pm

Interesting stuff johnno. You have to love a non-linear effect. The Butterfly Effect ...... without the butterfly.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 4 Nov 2018 at 7:06pm

Yes, totally. Thank you for the challenge of finding published papers btw, there are so many inputs from both ourselves and our surrounding world/solar system - the scientist that puts all of them together in a model accurately is going to be well regarded!

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Sunday, 4 Nov 2018 at 7:37pm

I have mentioned Solar winds an$ people’s stidies into longer term climate cycles , a few years back in the ENSO threads .
Their effect on the PDO and QBO have long been mentioned in some of the lesser convinced climate circles . And is in fact a big sticking point for some more notorious climate deniers .
I definitely believe in Atmosperic tidal phenomenon , the Hydrogen theories would also tie in with this sort of influence .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 9 Nov 2018 at 5:19pm

Intriguing Southey - do you have links to your mentions above, or any links to articles on this?

Is the Atmospheric tidal phenomenon the same thing as the Atmospheric River/ARkstorm concept?

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