Slow outlook continues

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday April 8th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning in the South West, later next week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell for this afternoon, easing tomorrow AM with strong E/SE winds ahead of strong sea breezes
  • Smaller Wed with fresh E/SE-E winds ahead of strong sea breezes
  • Small mid-period S/SW swell for Wed PM and Thu AM, easing
  • Gusty E winds Thu AM, tending variable ahead of sea breezes
  • Gusty E winds Fri AM, tending variable ahead of sea breezes
  • Small, flukey S/SW groundswell for Sun PM, peaking Mon AM and easing
  • Strong E tending S winds
  • Possible moderate + sized W/SW groundswell later next week 

Recap

Friday afternoon's pulse of groundswell eased back from a clean 3-4ft on Saturday morning with tiny waves further north, while some new mid-period S/SW swell built through yesterday but with less favourable winds and conditions.

The swell has held this morning with cleaner conditions and surf to 4ft across the South West, 1ft to the north. Some better mid-period energy is due this afternoon but with sea breezes.

This week and weekend (April 9 - 14)

This afternoon's pulse of mid-period SW swell was generated by a healthy frontal system moving in from the Heard Island region on the weekend. We should see the swell building to 4-5ft+ later today but with sea breezes, easing from 4-5ft tomorrow with strong E/SE winds. Perth and Mandurah don't look to top 1-1.5ft, easing through tomorrow.

Wednesday morning looks smaller along with fresh E/SE-E winds, while into the afternoon and Thursday morning, a glancing pulse of small mid-period S/SW swell is due.

This is being generated by a south-east tracking front swinging in from the Indian Ocean, generating W/NW winds and now strengthening east of our swell window today.

Size from this looks limited, with 3ft+ waves likely into Thursday morning across the magnets, fading into the weekend.

Sea breezes will kick in as the swell arrives Wednesday afternoon, with gusty E winds Thursday morning, easing early afternoon ahead of sea breezes, smaller Friday with gusty E-E/NE tending variable winds ahead of sea breezes.

Looking longer term there's nothing really significant due through early-mid next week as the Indian Ocean becomes very quiet.

The storm track will be focused towards Tasmania, with any potential frontal systems dipping south-east through our swell window and without any major strength.

We may see some small, inconsistent S/SW groundswell spreading out from a polar fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds, south-southwest of us on Friday, with it arriving Sunday afternoon but peaking Monday.

This doesn't look to top 3-4ft across the South West magnets along with hopefully E'ly offshore winds. We'll have to review this on Wednesday and Friday.

Otherwise, in our far swell window, we've got more promising swell generating activity due directly off the South African coast later this week.

The models diverge regarding the intensity and longevity of what looks to be a mid-latitude low and fronts, but we should see some fun, inconsistent W/SW groundswell arriving from this source later next week. More on this next update.

Comments

yodai's picture
yodai's picture
yodai Monday, 8 Apr 2024 at 3:46pm

So wct event could be as flat as bells.
Tough for those on cut where every heat becomes a lottery

trevbucky's picture
trevbucky's picture
trevbucky Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 12:58am

I sound like a broken record, but for us wave starved surfers north of Margs, it’s been the worst Autumn in living memory, following the worst summer, following the worst spring, the worst winter.. rinse & repeat for 2.-3 years. :(

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 6:45am

Ugh, hopefully things change sometime soon.

trevbucky's picture
trevbucky's picture
trevbucky Thursday, 11 Apr 2024 at 12:58am

Thanks Craig, we can only live in hope..

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 8:36am

Yup. Old timers down this way (far south) are calling it the worst in living memory also Trev.