Large winter swell approaching

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast every day, Mornington Peninsula Tuesday and Thursday morning, as well as protected breaks Saturday


Excellent Surf Coast waves Saturday with plenty of size hanging in due to a reinforcing W/SW groundswell. Into Sunday we saw a mix of three strong new swells filling in and winds remained favourable most of the day on the Surf Coast with a light offshore tending variable breeze.

Today the surf was pumping with clean easing surf from the 4-5ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under a NW breeze.

This week (June 20 – 23)

The good times are set to continue for the Surf Coast with fun waves this week ahead of a proper large winter swell this weekend.

Tomorrow will again be great on the Surf Coast with a new W/SW groundswell produced by a good fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales moving through our swell window yesterday and this morning.

The Surf Coast should see 3ft+ waves during the morning (4ft sets on the reefs and at 13th Beach) with 4-6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. Offshore NW winds will persist all day, favouring locations west of Melbourne, though periods of N/NW breezes are likely east of Melbourne.

Into Wednesday the Surf Coast will again be clean through the early-mid morning with a W/NW offshore ahead of a shallow SW change mid-late morning.

This change will be associated with a strong polar front projecting from below WA, up towards us while strengthening tomorrow.

A broad and elongated fetch of strong SW winds will generate a moderate sized SW groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. The Surf Coast should build to 4ft on the sets with 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, holding 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively Thursday before easing a touch Friday.

Thursday morning will be clean across both regions with light local offshores from the N'th, tending more W/NW into the afternoon, while Friday should see fresh NW tending W/NW breezes.

As touched on above and late last week, a vigorous polar frontal progression will develop later this week, the first real one this winter.

This will be the result of a node of the Long Wave Trough strengthening over the south-east of the country later this week, feeding and steering a vigorous polar front right up and through our south-west swell window.

An initial strong polar front will generate a fetch of pre and post-frontal W/NW to W/SW gales, creating an active sea state for a secondary much stronger and broader front to move over. This secondary front will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds right up towards us and then across Tasmania, with a large powerful long-period SW groundswell resulting.

This swell may be seen later Friday but will peak Saturday in the 8ft range on the Surf Coast and 10-12ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are this stage look to be W/NW through the morning, but we'll have another look at the expected size and winds on Wednesday, so check then for a more confident assessment on this swell.


pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Monday, 19 Jun 2017 at 6:04pm

how do i insert. van dam dancing 'giffy'

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Monday, 19 Jun 2017 at 6:43pm

That is a serious winter swell wonder if Mick and Wilco will fly down courtesy of RC?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Monday, 19 Jun 2017 at 8:43pm

Hope so! We can always do with a few more crew in the water around here.........

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Monday, 19 Jun 2017 at 8:43pm

Incoming craig !
Dont you just love these things ?

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Tuesday, 20 Jun 2017 at 4:11pm

i was lucky enough to have an annual day of leave today!!! great call by myself it was absolute magic out there today.
anyway old mate started talking to me when i was getting my wettie off he was a bit hesitant on heading out because he didnt want to get abused....he informed me that he is a goatboater....i told him he should go to maui where it does not matter if you shortboard,longboard,boogie board,sup,goatboat,foil, race sup,prone board,kiteboard,windsurf....its all 'cool' if you do any of these water sports over there and the culture is nice and everyone shows each other respect.
i reminded him that its just the australian way that if you are not surfing a 6,1 shortboard you get crucified in torquay at most locations...and i told him that i figure in most sports there are at least %15 dickflops but in torquay that % is without a doubt%35 of dickflops. old mate was humbled by my theory made him happy and he hit it up!!!
im a keen windsurfer and enjoy surfing just like everyone else i just dont have blinkers on and only surf so i totally understand that not eveyone likes short board...i understand that there should be edicate on where certain craft should be used but lets not discuss that its a can of worms.
rant over.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 20 Jun 2017 at 7:58pm

Spot on pigdog, & it was magic out there today and over the last week or more. It's like being in a dream of offshoreland, like groundhog day.

I enjoy the midlength boards, whether it be 1ft, or 2-3ft facey long walls, or hoeing in at 5-6ft (probably time to go gunny after this). It's joy to stand really early.

For the pop though, probably better to have something a bit less float and more conforming on most days out there. Or a 70's single.

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