Good Surf Coast with an easing swell, fun again from Wednesday morning

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 27th November)

Best Days: Saturday morning Surf Coast, Sunday morning both coasts (more so Surf Coast), Monday east of Melbourne, Wednesday and Thursday mornings Surf Coast, Friday morning east of Melbourne 

Recap

Less than ideal conditions yesterday morning as we fell in between swells along with cross-shore winds around Torquay early, onshore everywhere else.

A new W/SW groundswell built through the afternoon though and has peaked this morning with good clean 3-5ft waves on the Torquay reefs again, topping off an excellent run of unseasonal swell. The Mornington Peninsula was in the 6ft+ range with protected spots the best.

This weekend and next week (Nov 28 – Dec 4)

Our excellent run of swell across the Surf Coast will slowly fade through the weekend but under favourable morning offshores.

Light NW offshores and an easing 3ft to possibly 4ft of swell is expected tomorrow morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes. Sunday should then be smaller and dropping from 2-3ft with similar NW tending S'ly winds.

Sunday morning looks to be the best chance for variable breezes on the Mornington Peninsula, and a surf across the more exposed spots, but the swell will still be solid.

Monday will be the best day to surf east of Melbourne with a dropping swell from 3ft+ under N/NE offshores, persisting all day. The Surf Coast will be small to tiny but improving with N'ly tending N/NW winds.

Into Tuesday a small kick in inconsistent SW groundswell is due from a couple of weak lows moving through our far swell window south-west and south of WA, to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into the afternoon though a strong front pushing in from the west should kick up a late increase in windswell and better W/SW swell for Wednesday.

While the front won't be overly strong, it will develop south-west of WA and continue favourably through our western swell window from Sunday through Monday and Tuesday next week.

A moderate sized W/SW swell should result, filling in Wednesday to 3ft across the Surf Coast with 4ft sets at swell magnets and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Morning W/NW winds are likely around Torquay, with onshore SW winds everywhere else.

A slow drop in swell is then due through the end of the week as a smaller reinforcing W/SW swell fills in, with morning offshores for the Surf Coast Thursday and NE winds Friday. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Victoriasurfing1's picture
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Victoriasurfing1 Friday, 27 Nov 2015 at 12:07pm

Why does the surf forcast for swellnet for Mornington have Monday being 2ft and you have it being 3ft+. Is the surf forcast underpredicting it ?

Cheers

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 27 Nov 2015 at 12:29pm

Yes, looks like it's undercooking at a little. Will be at least 2-3ft.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Friday, 27 Nov 2015 at 5:04pm

These detailed forecasts and those on other sites are making it too easy for flogs from Melbourne to carpool in masses and overcrowd a lot of breaks that you could once get to yourself or with just a few others.

Then theres other oxygen thieves using facebook and other apps to give people a list of what and where will be working on any given day even naming breaks that were once uncrowded.

southey's picture
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southey Friday, 27 Nov 2015 at 11:19pm

I tried a while back to misinform and harass the fuck out of said oxy thiefs .
Unfortunately the sheer Avalanche in numbers of Fwits becoming attracted to this sport in this state is far too overwelming . Might be time to start busting out the Orange guns , and some good old fashioned knuckles to give these people the right message . Maybe just blackball any surfer at arrives at break in car with more than two people in it . !

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Saturday, 28 Nov 2015 at 9:49am

Naturally over time things will get more heated if cool heads don't prevail from both sides of the argument.

chillbrah's picture
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chillbrah Saturday, 28 Nov 2015 at 12:05am

As someone who has had the best of both worlds, i get where you two are coming from. I agree that the Melbourne crew needs to show more respect to the guys who surf there everyday. But guys, come on - let's chill a bit. The city folk are making the most of their weekends by going for a shred and doing something they are passionate about; going surfing. For the local guys who take advantage of weekday waves - consider loosening up on the weekends and focusing on having some fun with like minded individuals.

Have a chat to the guy on your outside when waiting for waves - you might even have something in common. Why the fuck else would we all put up the hassle and expense of getting pitted unless we actually enjoy it and take advantage of the opportunity to experience the ocean in a way that your average Joe never will.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Saturday, 28 Nov 2015 at 10:01am

Don't bring the rat race mentality to the country Chillbrah.

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Wharfjunkie Saturday, 28 Nov 2015 at 9:47am

Chillbrah theres multiple issues at play here mate.
Irrespective of ability and enthusiasm there is a growing trend of surfers from the suburbs car pooling en mass to surf at whatever coastline/break happens to have the best forecast for the day.

It only takes a few car loads and etiquette goes out the window and the environment in the line up goes from people taking there turn waiting on the shoulder until others have caught there wave then paddling back out to an environment of snaking and drop in's.

Places which were once uncrowded in good conditions are getting flocked to en mass with disregard to the environment dumping there rubbish wherever they feel not to mention the blatant disregard to those who have frequented these locations as a life long pursuit.

City folk are fine as long as they don't travel in large groups and follow the same unwritten rules we all should.

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chillbrah Saturday, 28 Nov 2015 at 10:46am

People who show up at a spot in their minivan with 7 of their closest friends then show no respect can get fucked regardless of where they come from. What my comment was getting at is that, instead of using knuckles like Southey suggested, I think we'd all be surprised at how effective a few quiet words are at reminding people to follow the etiquette and respect the locals and environment. There is nothing wrong with telling a snake to wait their turn, or telling a kook to go rent a soft top and fuck off to the nearest beachie if they're posing a danger to other surfers.

Stok's picture
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Stok Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 12:48am

How is it a good thing to encourage surfers to travel in a car by themselves? What about the environmental impacts? People drive 100km+ to get to the surf from Melbourne, 30km+ from Geelong, and probably at least 15km from Torquay to Barwon/Lorne etc. We need to get past this backward way of thinking. Carpooling is a good thing. Respect is the issue. Doesn't matter if drove down from Toorak in a brand new Land Rover with 5 of their mates sipping take away coffees the whole way, or if they drove 15 minutes in a dusty ute with their dog in the back - if they surf like they own the place, with no respect, that's when it's a problem.

southey's picture
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southey Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 11:28am

Your right it doesn't matter where you come from , its the wanker effect . And for some reason Melbourne is full of them / produces its Lions share . Now if one or two blokes want to go to a quieter area then champions they are . BUT if a car load carpool to anywhere that isn't already crowded then you will be getting the BIG stink eye . And no respect what so ever before you even step in the water , let alone once you all paddle out together at exactly the same time .... KNOBS
Don't get me started on this CARBON bullshit angle , truth is without car pooling 95% of these people would be lucky to go to the coast on 90 % of these missions . Why because they are soft cocks , they all want to bro down and get some group feel going ...... If you really love the ocean you'd hitch alone or in two's . If i'm going to drive to the Ocean alone then thats my perogative , and the end of the day its offset elsewhere. And i sure as hell aren't throthing out on shit conditions and trying squeeze in multiple trips into a one good day week .
Your just tight arses that are trying to save money for your latte's , expensive girly haircuts , beard trimmers , anal bleaching or whatever you all do together on your off days ...... If your so commited to the ocean , and its inhabitants you'd be living in a cave at the waters edge . Instead you choose to live in " the lights " , so don't expect any respect when you show up high fiving and giving each other reach arounds . Fucking Muppets .
Throwing " RESPECT " around like its a $5 item you can get at the Servo , Respect is earnt .
Man up let go ( of your parents replacement )= your car pooling 'bro's hand , and strip it back to just you and the ocean ............ Man with and versus Nature .
PS , if no one is there at all ( ie Solo session ) you do own the place at that moment . So if a group show up and someone else was previously alone , you my friend-s need to show respect ............

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 1:00pm

Sure, respect is the issue but showing up with a car load and paddling out all at once shows absolutely none and has complete disregard for etiquette too.

gasman's picture
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gasman Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 9:31am

You have got that spot on Stok. Doesn't matter where you come from, it's about the way you behave once you are in the water.

Added to which I would think the exponential growth of Torquay (and to an extent the southern fringe of Geetroit) has a lot more to do with the increase in crowds over the last five years than anything Melbourne related. It's a bit simplistic and an easy target to blame people travelling from Melbourne for all the ills of the Victorian surfing world. Sure, it contributes but I reckon we need to look a little closer to home for the reasons why some previously under-surfed spots are now busy.

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 3:11pm

I blame Deakin.

Victoriasurfing1's picture
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Victoriasurfing1 Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 3:14pm

Carpetman where I surf I find there's a lot of kids around that 15-16 range where they can be real smartarses surfing in groups and they think they can do what ever they want. This really does piss me off but in saying that what is matter if your have a group of your mates, going for a surf together and paddling out together. Along as the group sticks to the rules and just shares the Stoke I don't no how you can say it shows no respect. If the group are being dickheads than yes it's disrespectful but don't no people are commenting saying coming in and group and paddling out together is wrong, nothing wrong with it

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 6:47pm

Southey hit the nail on the head and this is not just isolated to the west coast of Victoria. Carpooling and overcrowding all ready known or populated breaks is bullshit if you insist on travelling in 4's or 5's go pick somewhere thats quiet.

It's ok to be enthusiastic but follow the rules and show some etiquette it's tiring watching wankers from suburban Melbourne snaking going over the falls then getting in the way and freezing like a deer in the headlights when they see someone going down the line.

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southey Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 9:23pm

I agree that it's bullshit full stop Wharfjunkie . But we differ , in the fact that a crowded lineup is beyond help anyway . If these people are out in traffic ( surfing ) and they are not someone who knows how to avoid people or are basicly inexperienced then yes they should stay away from crowded spots full stop .
But in saying that they should also go where there is no one out , instead of rocking up at another spot of which has a handful of guys out , no doubt a lesser quality wave or nameless as such .
If you've been surfing for any considerable length of time you should be able to understand that if the waves aren't consistent , ie guys aren't getting back to back waves in a group, then it's fucking stupid to paddle out and instantly double that crowd . Best you just sit back have some lunch , study what waves are working which aren't etc.
or generally speaking paddle out in a broken group . 2 at a time . You'll still have that middle 1 or 2 hours when all of your group is in the water , but you'll also spread the waves around , as the first guys will be getting tired when your second or third pair go out .
Anyway what would I know , I clearly don't have a uni degree , and most of the time vomit in my mouth a little when u hear someone say Stoke . ( collective ) .
Again I'll re iterate for the masses , people that have spent 100 times more time in the water than you guys are never going to give you respect , even before you paddle out . If you guys continue to surf as a collective , the whole Netball team!

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 12:34am

repeat sorry

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mick-free Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 10:01pm

Interesting stuff. I feel your pain Southey. I love the trip down to both coasts and have been going for the last 20 years. Its got worse every year. Beside the obvious development of Torquay and the swelling surf numbers, the main problem that faces surf coast is the proximity and the ever increasing quickness to get there from anywhere ...I can get on the 6am flight out of Sydney and be in the lineup at 9:30am at Bells. 3 million people on the doorstep in Melbourne and its only getting worse. This problem doesn't affect SA, WA, even East Coast if you drive an hour you can find uncrowded waves.

It's great to have the detailed reports now and is instrumental in getting good waves. In the nineties it was about looking for a big low. It was still hit and miss then...probably more miss than hit. Now you can't fail with reports and its no fault of the SN , surfline, magicseaweed of the world, that's the way it is and the future.

I don't know what the solution is. Something has to be done about it. I have seen the attitude get progressively worse (mainly WInkipop) and I won't go on a run down in a weekend unless its definitely going to be 6 foot and over. That seems to be the only control now on crowds. The size.

I think if you have a bunch of you 5 or so why wouldn't you go further south rather than add to the problem. Why wouldn't you head to Fairhaven, find an uncrowded maxing beachie or a few of the other reefs. I only travel two or three max and for somewhere like Winkipop I wouldn't paddle out and take the first wave that came through at uppers. Firstly you feel like a knob doing it and with every one watching you you know exactly what they are thinking. I have met a lot of locals and it could be two or three years seeing a particular face, but you still know the local guys who you should respect in the lineup. Further if you are not going to get to know the locals in the lineup you aren't doing the time at that spot and really have no rights when its the day of the year. But conversly that attitude is completely changed if I paddle out at snapper..... I'm going to get that first wave on the inside and I don't give a shit, but that's the culture that has been allowed to be created up there. If you don't play that game then you don't get any waves. So if it becomes like that down the surf coast it's a real loss. It's up to the locals at Winkis to enforce it and don't stand for innappropriate behaviour. But it can't be left with a shake of the head it has to be pointed out and enforced.

ps. Why is the road limit 100km per hour in Victoria, fuck I always get cooked by the speed cameras in Vicco.

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southey Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 10:51pm

Not my pain exactly Mick . I don't surf winki unless it's solid , clean and they fucked the forecast up ... ( . So there's only 20 in the water or whatever ) . My point was more about doubling a crowd at a low key spot . But I do understand guys who call it their local . As inadvertently I have to put up with the, whinging about it when I see them surfing the spots I infrequently visit . Of all the Surf coast , I'm most likely drawn to cyclinders , for obvious reasons . But I also used to surf Bells a lot when it was at perfect size , tide , period etc . I literally have give up surfing there now unless it's victory at sea conditions .

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 12:36am

Think the last victory at sea day was a 10 foot day 2 years ago with Derek Hynd and one of the Fitzgeralds. Yep I'm keen for one of those days too.

Stok's picture
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Stok Sunday, 29 Nov 2015 at 11:15pm

The whole surf coast is very developed, accessible and hardly anything close to remote. It's going to be extremely crowded and it's only going to get more crowded. The waves now which are uncrowded will eventually be crowded too. The whole idea of not rocking up in a group is essentially redundant as most waves on the surfcoast already will have 10+ surfers out on a good day.

Your best bet is to learn to deal with crowds, or chose where you surf more wisely. If you chose to paddle out at Winki/Bells on the weekend what do you really expect?

If you're a Victorian surfer with a big ego, an 'us versus them' mentality and a short temper - I actually feel quite sorry for you. You're never going to get your stoke back and may as well just quit surfing and take up road cycling - that's a pretty competitive past timewhere crowds aren't much of an issue.

southey's picture
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southey Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 12:28am

Yeah , well best you don't venture out of that region then . Most likely be detrimental to your health !

Stok's picture
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Stok Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 11:05am

Don't worry mate, I surf all over Victoria, and I've never personally had any issues with locals. Respect goes a long way with getting waves, and understanding how to deal with crowds is good for your surfing experience.

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mick-free Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 12:48am

There's spots that are regulated Stok and will stay uncrowded. I don't see big egos or any mentality. The Vic local just want to get there fair share of waves without too many people. Out of anywhere travelling I really enjoy surfing there, the cold, its more genuinely friendly than other states.

Stok's picture
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Stok Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 11:12am

I hope you're right! It's such a plentiful state wave wise, that's why I find it funny that people seem frustrated with crowds.

I live in Melbourne, surf by myself 50% of the time and with 1 or 2 mates the rest, and I've personally never had any issues with locals. Get plenty of waves and have had quite a few solo sessions in some pretty epic spots (mostly beachies). I do overhear some pretty funny convos now and then about over crowding when I'm out in the line up. It's a real us versus them mentality. Mostly occurs on the surf coast.

crip's picture
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crip Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 1:12pm

I too live in Melbourne and only get to surf on weekends. But I often get to surf reasonable uncrowded waves, sometimes lonely ones. And I also get to curse crowds sometimes, usually when there's a bit of swell and it's a NW, when I'll head west instead of east. It's funny, but maybe half the time those days I'll end up adding to the 50+ crowd at Winki because that's the best wave on the coast and I've been surfing it for so long that I know how to pick up a few waves there (usually just the leftovers tho coz there are others out there who are simply better and faster down the line than me and so can take off deeper).

My other observation is that everyone is saying that the crowds are getting worse and more unbearable. Crap. 35 years ago it was just as bloody crowded down here (it's probably worse on the Goldie tho). We'd be up on the cliff above Steps, looking up at Winki and it looked black, like an ants nest. You couldn't get a wave at Bird Rock unless you were recognised. 40-50 out at Bells and Winki was a normal weekend crowd. Woolamai on a sunny day was packed on every bank from Anzacs to Magiclands. A mate of mine quit surfing in 1980 coz he said it was getting too crowded. Sounds just like what everyone is saying today. In fact, some places seem less crowded now.

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goofyfoot Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 7:08am

Everyone's welcome on the MP!

crustt's picture
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crustt Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 8:25am

I had a bit of a run in early Sunday morning, I was looking at the surf at a place I surf quite a bit and was about to go for a paddle just for the heck of it as it was really only just breaking , then a car goes past down into the car park followed by a congo line of 4 more cars, my feeling were of exasperation of where surfing was going but thought that at least they were going to a place where there was no one out and they beat me to it so they can have it.
I went down to take a look a the break next to the one i was looking at and as I was checking it one of the kids comes from behind a bush pulling up his wettie, I asked him if he just had a crap, "yep, so what" one of the adults pipes up "it's just nature mate" I let fly a bit as this is a common occurrence at this break, I then got abused for swearing in front of children, I reckon shitting in a carpark is worse.
As far as they were concerned I was only hassling them cause I was shitty that they were even there, I tried to explain that I may have been a bit bemused if I was out in the water and 15 people paddled out at once, but the issue wasn't the amount of people it was the lack of respect for the coast.
Generally these big groups are so in their own bubble that the have no respect for other surfers or the coast. It's not a Melbourne thing either. I took note of the white Landcruiser ute with a fiberglass canopy with" Meerkat plumbing" written all over it, business based in Ocean Grove/ Barwon Heads.
The frustrating thing with these groups of dickheads is that anyone who calls them out over their behavior whether it be shitting in the carpark , pulling up vegetation to fuel a fire, leaving rubbish or paddling out on mass to make an instant crowd is labeled a greedy prick who want it all to themselves, generally that is not the case, just people who love the coast and are sick of seeing other surfers mistreating it.

Sorry for the rant fellas, hope I haven't broken any rules by outing the Meerkat but I feel better for it. :)

udo's picture
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udo Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 10:38am

Good on ya crustty, a plumber of all people eh ......one who knows Aust hygiene standards code inside out...if the young bloke was absolutely busting and came out of the bush with a shovel in his hand and had buried his waste [@200mm min depth ] o.k....sort of
a work ute I guess a shovel would have been on board ?

Stok's picture
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Stok Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 11:02am

Good on you Crustt, you did what you could.

This shows exactly the point I'm trying to make, the problem is humans in general, and their attitude to nature and resources. It's not a city/country/local/blow in thing. It's not even a kook/good surfer thing.

crip's picture
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crip Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 1:00pm

Hey Crustt, your rant here was totally warranted, as was your rant at the redneck bogans who showed total lack of respect for our coast.

crustt's picture
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crustt Tuesday, 1 Dec 2015 at 6:44am

Rant about bogans? I can't remember that one, but my memory lapses beyond a few days. As I sit here in my ugg boots, board shorts and $5 fleece top, I have to admit to slipping into the bogan category, which is cool as no one has high expectations .
People with no respect come from all walks of life.
Irony of that morning was, I went a few k's back and surfed a point across the road from the caravan park they were most likely staying in with no more than 4 people for an hour and a half. :-))

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thermalben Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 8:51am

Couple of nice waves pushing through the Bellarine Peninsula this morning.

KR Beast's picture
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KR Beast Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 3:02pm

Well done Crustty,sometimes you just have to speak up. What these blow ins did is crap,pardon the pun,but the attitudes they display is very common. I wonder if it's the same crew we experienced on Fri evening where we surfed,where I live. The part of the coast where they come from ( now suburbia)is renowned for bad attitudes,crowding etc,etc hence some of the older guys come down our way to avoid the drama of their area and experience a far more relaxed vibe and are a pleasure to surf with, same can't be said about the younger crew and their kids. They acted like knobs,so they were treated accordingly. Just because their part of the coast has turned to shit,doesn't mean they should venture elsewhere and treat this part of the coast and the crew that enjoy it like shit They are guilty of the same behaviour they bag others for.These clowns aren't from the city,but where they live might as well be by the shit attitude they displayed.They where in a group of about 20 staying in the caravan park,the worst was a parent with the bald head,fine surfer but no etiquette,respect or manners. As a surfer who's travelled OZ and the world,I know I have a responsibility to conduct myself with respect and consideration for others and the environment. Just because we are a bit relaxed or mellow further down the coast,don't ever think this a sign of weakness and try to take advantage of us, In general we don't conduct ourselves like arseholes like these crew over the weekend, What hope have the kids and surfing got if their parents and elders act like privileged arses.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 3:13pm

Can't say I've seen the minivan unload on a break I'm surfing with grom on the weekend, we try to avoid crowds ourselves. Vic still amazes me in that if you have 12 cars in the carpark, you'll see 6 in the water; back in WA the 12 cars would see 24+ surfers out. That might be a function of the sheer distances to desirable breaks.

My worst experience ever was when 5 goatboaters descended on the peak I was surfing alone back in WA. The horror...

thebeard's picture
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thebeard Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 3:57pm

Surfed a beautiful little point all by myself saturday morning; head high on the sets nice an peeling. And the most funny bit is that looking at the left of me I see 12-15 longboarders "sharing" the famous communal wave. Sometimes all it takes is climb some rocks and walk a bit further (and peddling out at first light as Melbournites aren't particular early risers). Vic has plenty of good breaks where you can surf by yourself on a weekend.

But I have to admit, it's getting worse with all these groups travelling together and being rude and littering everything. There's a nice little wave I like to frequent which also happens to be a stop for "Wild Adventures" tours; tourist cramped in a minivan driving down the GOR. There's a little toilet block which, once the friendly tourist have left smells like last week's oysters marinated in last year's milk. The little stretch of grass is littered in wrappers and cans. When I pointed it out to the tour leader he just looked and me and told me to mind my own business.

The other thing is learners. Is it because people nowadays feel so entitled or am I just a grumpy old men? When I started surfing I would have local heroes to which I would look up to. Watching them, mimicking them has made me the surfer I am today. But no way it would even be be an idea to drop in on any of those guys. Nowadays it seems to be the reason why people are learning to surf. If an 8 year old grom drops in, I actually find it entertaining. But 30 somethings looking at you with a gaze scarier then samuel L jackson... I just don't get it. Is that what surfing is to those people... what shits me even more is nobody peddles wide nowadays... straight to the peak.... I guess being humble isn't a good quality nowadays.

crip's picture
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crip Monday, 30 Nov 2015 at 5:01pm

O bearded one: I'd look up this mob, get their email address or phone number, report the incident and ask them to lift their game or they will be reported and deregistered & fined.

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Wharfjunkie Tuesday, 1 Dec 2015 at 6:57pm

Then you get the f-wit who drops in then flicks off consistently.