Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 4th May)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: fun mix of easing S'ly then reinforcing S/SE swells with generally good winds. Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon: chance for a (series of) small flukey S'ly swells at south swell magnets. 

Recap: Saturday offered tiny conditions through the morning, before a small pulse of erratic E/NE swell bumped up some open beaches into the 1-2ft range. Conditions were clean with offshore winds. Sunday’s south swell combo pushed up the coast slower than expected. Early morning was barely 2ft across Sydney’s south facing beaches, though the Hunter was 3-4ft, however south facing beaches in Sydney reached 6ft+ by the end of the day with larger 8ft sets across the Hunter. Wave heights have held in around this size range for the early session this morning, though has eased back throughout the day. Early light W’ly winds swung S’ly before lunchtime though haven’t gained too much strength. 

Newcastle looking mighty fine this morning

Long lines at Queenscliff earlier today

This week (May 5 - 8)

A strong front racing through the lower Tasman Sea today will provide a reinforcing S/SE swell for the coming days. 

In fact, this system looks a little stronger than last week’s model runs estimated, though it’s running a little behind schedule so there’s a delay on its arrival. Therefore I’m expecting Tuesday to see mainly easing S’ly swells from today. South facing beaches should pick up occasional 3-4ft+ sets but it’ll lose a foot or so through the day. Expect occasional bigger bombs across the Hunter, but smaller surf at locations not directly exposed to the south.

Winds should be generally light and variable with weak afternoon sea breezes, though there is a risk that some locations (probably just a few spots across the Hunter) may see a lingering moderate southerly breeze in the morning.

The new reinforcing S/SE swell should reach the Far South Coast very late afternoon, and then build across Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts overnight, providing a lift in surf size to an inconsistent 3ft at south facing beaches on Wednesday, much smaller elsewhere but bigger across the Hunter around 3-5ft at times. It will be much less consistent than anything seen over the last few days though, so you'll need to be patient. Conditions look great with light winds and sea breezes. 

Thursday will then see rapidly easing S/SE swell, initially 2ft south facing beaches down to 1-2ft (bigger Hunter, smaller elsewhere) with light NW winds. A small E/NE swell from a ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea will provide minor energy, persisting into Friday.

Very late Thursday afternoon, the leading edge of a long period S’ly swell will nose into the coast, generated by an intense though poorly aligned low south-west of Tasmania over the coming days (see below). This system looks incredible on the synoptics but it’s tracking through a really tricky part of the swell window, and I don’t think we’ll see much energy from it.

Because there won’t be much pre-existing energy in the water, we’ll probably see peak swell periods spike to 18+ seconds at a few of the regional buoys. That being said, many beaches won’t pick up any new surf thanks to the acute source. South facing beaches may see occasional 2ft sets into Friday, and the Hunter often performs the best so it could go higher here - somewhere around the 3-4ft mark - but it’ll be terribly inconsistent. I really wouldn’t go out of your way for waves on Friday. 

Winds will be moderate N/NW, which is a good thing as it’ll favour south facing beaches.

Let’s see how Wednesday’s model runs are looking.

This weekend (May 9 - 10)

The low responsible for Friday’s flukey pulse - if it eventuates - looks to broaden considerably as it passes below the Tasman Sea (see below). Although poorly aligned for our swell window, it should generate a small spread of S/SE swell back up into Southern NSW this weekend. I’ll cap wave heights at an inconsistent 2ft+ from this source and keep my expectations pretty low. 

Elsewhere, a strong frontal sequence will approach Tasmania and we’ll see new S’ly swells from the usual suspect swell windows - W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday, generating a small S’ly swell for Sunday, and then a long period S’ly swell from the parent low (SW of Tasmania). 

Again, this will all be flukey, peripheral stuff and absolutely shouldn’t be lodged into the calendar as they’re such low percentage events. But, they’ll be worth keeping an eye on.

Next week (May 11 onwards)

A continuation of flukey S’ly (and S/SE) swells from the aforementioned weekend sources will persist through the start of next week. No major size is likely though it’ll only take a small longitudinal shift in the storm track to beef up our prospects. 

Otherwise there’s a tropical system developing south of Fiji this weekend that may have some small E/NE swell potential for next week. I’ll take a closer look on Wednesday.

See you then!