South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 24th Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E and SE swells this weekend as trough forms off MNC with light winds, tending N’ly in the a’noon- best Sat AM
• Troughy, unstable pattern continues next week with trough of low pressure forming in Tasman
• We may see some small E/NE swell mid week from an infeed into trough- onshore winds likely
• Unstable pattern leads to low confidence in outlook but we’ll keep tracking low pressure trough for swell potential next week-check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Not much to recap. Small swells, mostly from the E with some small SE component topped out in the 2ft range across the region yesterday and into today. A stalled trough brought light winds for the early across most of NENSW yesterday, extending up into the southern Gold Coast before a light E’ly flow. Onshore winds have been up early this morning across almost the entire sub-tropical region with poor quality, small surf as a result. Warm water has offset the poor quality surf, to some degree. 

Water is warm and it's uncrowded, if you are looking for positives

This weekend (Nov 25-26)

Not a great deal of action likely this weekend. High pressure is straddling Tasmania with the remnants of a front lingering near New Zealand with an off-axis fetch. A coastal trough and an inland trough maintain unstable conditions with a developing N-NE flow over the weekend.

Sat morning should be the best of it with a small blend of E and S/SE swells offering up some workable 1-2ft surf with cleanest conditions in the morning under a light/variable flow before N/NE winds kick up to mod/fresh strength in the a’noon.

Smaller swells Sun morning as  swell trains ebb away, with minor levels of NE windswell likely on the MNC. Similar winds with light morning NW breezes tending N/NE, stronger south of Byron-Ballina. Most beaches will be a combination of small swells in the 1-2ft range.

Next week (Nov 27 onwards)

Models have been all over the shop trying to resolve the very troughy, unstable pattern next week so keep in mind confidence is low and revisions (winds especially!) are likely before you make plans.

An initial trough moving off the Gippsland coast over the weekend looks to form a small surface low East of Tasmania Sun, tracking east across the Tasman early next week. That, along with a trough, should bring a S’ly change up to the MNC Mon and a small flush of S swell Tues.

Mon looks to be a continuing blend of small E and NE swells to 1-2ft offering a grovel at best. N’ly winds for most of the region with a S change extending to the Coffs region.

Tues should see the small low in the Tasman generate mid period S swells up to 2-3ft  arriving later in the day across the MNC, and reaching the Far North Coast later in the day. It’s unlikely to show in SEQLD. Winds look very iffy around a stalled trough on the MNC- likely N’ly in SEQLD, variable south of the border.

From mid next week things look dynamic as a complex trough approaches from interior Victoria and NSW. That’s likely to see increasing NE-E/NE infeed into the system across most of the NSW Coast, focussed on Central NSW. Building swells from that direction are likely but not likely to exceed 3ft.

An offshore flow is then possible late Wed or Thurs as the trough moves offshore and forms a surface low. Again, models have been all over the place with the position of this low.

So we’ll pencil in a potential window of improving local NE-E/NE swell later next week, although with low confidence.

Then we’ll be looking at the low itself with the return flow of winds across the southern flank of the low for potential S-SE swell. At the moment, potential looks diminished as the low races away but we’ll check that out on Mon. Other model runs have looked better for swell production so we won’t rule it out at this stage.

No change to the troughy pattern as we move into the medium term so keep tabs on the notes here as synoptic conditions under such instability are highly volatile, although small and onshore surf looks like the most likely outcome for our region.

Check back Mon and have a great weekend!