Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 5th December)

This week through next week (Dec 6 - 15)

After a slow run of surf, we should finally be starting to see some good quality swell building across the region today, generated by a healthy, slow moving mid-latitude low through the southern Indian Ocean last week.

The swell came in well across Western Australia and is on the build now across the region, with a peak due later today, though thanks to the slow moving nature, tomorrow morning should offer similar sized sets.

The easing trend will be softened by reinforcing pulses of mid-period S/SW swell, generated by trailing, weaker frontal activity on the backside of the low. This should keep Thursday in the moderate size range, easing more noticeably from Saturday afternoon after another pulse of reinforcing energy.

Later in the day Sunday some new, inconsistent SW groundswell is due to arrive, but Monday morning will reveal the peak. The source was a strong low that developed south-east of South Africa on the weekend, with it breaking down last night. With a fetch of gales generated, a moderate sized but inconsistent swell is due, easing through Tuesday. It looks like the models are combining swells and over-forecasting the size so keep this in mind.

Following this, small to moderate levels of mid-period SW swell are due later week, but below the size and strength of Monday's energy.

Over towards the Maldives, the S'ly groundswell from the mid-latitude low should have filled in yesterday peaking through the afternoon and easing into this morning.

The secondary pulse of S'ly groundswell from a small low forming off Madagascar should buffer the easing trend this afternoon, before easing through tomorrow, smaller but still fun through the end of the week.

The groundswell generated south-east of South Africa is due later Friday, peaking Saturday with moderate sized surf due across the southern atolls.

Trade-swell looks to remain minimal in size, and winds locally will become strong as a trough pushes through the region mid-late week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate-large SW groundswell building today, reaching 6ft+ later across exposed breaks, easing slowly from a similar size tomorrow. Reinforcing moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow afternoon and Thursday morning to 4-6ft.

Smaller reinforcing S/SW swell Friday afternoon and Saturday morning to 4ft+.

Inconsistent SW groundswell later Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-5ft. Smaller, reinforcing mid-period SW swell later week.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending S/SE-S through the afternoons this week, and S/SW-S from Friday through the weekend.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate-large SW groundswell for today, reaching 5-6ft+ across exposed breaks, easing slowly tomorrow and further Thursday.

Smaller, reinforcing mid-period S'ly swell for Friday to 3-4ft.

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building late Sunday to 4-5ft, easing from a similar size Monday.

Light, variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations this week, tending more variable from the weekend.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S'ly groundswell from yesterday, today.

Reinforcing S'ly groundswell for this afternoon to 4-5ft across the southern atolls, easing into the rest of the week.

Moderate sized + pulse of S'ly groundswell for late Friday, peaking Saturday to 4ft across the southern atolls, easing Sunday. Background S'ly swells for next week.

Small, weak levels of SE windswell for the period.

W/SW-SW winds across northern and central locations tomorrow, fresh SE to the south, S'ly across all locations Thursday.

Strong SW winds Friday, easing and tending W/SW on Saturday (variable to to the south).

Variable winds next week from the N'th, tending NE later week.