Indonesia/Maldives forecast September 5th
Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 5th September)
This week through next week (Sep 6 - 15)
After a slow run of surf, we should be seeing a strong kick in large S/SW groundswell across the Indonesian region today and more so this afternoon/evening.
A peak is due this evening ahead of a slow easing trend through tomorrow afternoon and more so Thursday/Friday. The secondary pulse of reinforcing S/SW swell has been downgraded thanks to the secondary strong frontal system that was due to move up on the back of the first being much weaker in strength.
As per the last few months the weekends and early the following weeks look to be the low point in swell activity ahead of building surf later in the week.
This is the general trend for next week, apart from a small low forming west of Western Australia on Thursday this week, due to generate a moderate sized pulse of S/SW swell for later Monday, easing Tuesday.
Of greater significance is the activity developing south-east of South Africa and to the north of the Heard Island region next week.
We're looking at a slow moving, multi-staged frontal progression firing up in Indonesia's south-western swell window moving further east and north as it goes.
Each frontal system by itself isn't overly significant but the slow movement and back to back nature of the progression will see a series of large groundswells impacting Indonesia from later next week but more so into the following weekend and the week starting the 18th.
The models are mixing energy so it's tricky to decipher each pulse but don't expect surf to the size that the current models have.
Looking west to the Maldives and a moderate sized pulse of S'ly groundswell is due to peak this afternoon, easing through tomorrow. We're also seeing a renewal of moderate + sized SE trade-swell which is peaking today and should slowly ease over the coming week and into the weekend thanks to relaxing trades throughout the Indian Ocean.
The swell looks to bottom out through the middle of next week from the SE before building again later week as trades strengthen again through the Indian Ocean.
The slow moving frontal progression bringing large swell to Indonesia from later next week is favourable for the Maldives with large surf also expected across the southern atolls from later Tuesday but more so Wednesday. We'll have a closer look at this in the next update.
Eastern Indonesia:
Large S/SW groundswell building today, reaching 8ft across exposed breaks by dark, easing from 6ft to occasionally 8ft tomorrow. Smaller Friday morning with a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell slowing the easing trend into the afternoon and maintaining 5-6ft sets on the magnets.
Smaller Saturday, Sunday and bottoming out Monday morning.
Moderate sized S/SW swell arriving later Monday to 4-5ft across the magnets, easing Tuesday.
Large mix of SW groundswells for later in the week and beyond.
Moderate E/SE-SE trades (fresh for small periods), light and variable each morning.
Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs
Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:
Mod-large S/SW groundswell building today, reaching 6ft to possibly 8ft across exposed breaks late, dropping from 6ft+ tomorrow morning.
Easing swell for the rest of the week with a small background S'ly swell pulse Saturday fading Sunday and bottoming out Monday.
Large mix of S/SW groundswells building later next week and persisting into the following weekend/week.
Strong S/SE-SE trades across southern regions, lighter to the north, slowly abating across all locations through the weekend, strengthening again next week.
Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs
Maldives:
New SE trade-swell for this morning to 5-6ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male), easing slowly this week and further into the weekend, bottoming out early-mid next week. Not getting below 3ft across the magnets,
Small, inconsistent background S'ly groundswell peaking this afternoon to 4ft across the southern atolls, easing from tomorrow.
Large S'ly groundswell building later Tuesday but peaking Wednesday next week to 6ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male).
Moderate S/SW-S winds across central and northern locations this week and weekend, S/SE-SE to the south. Winds tending more W/SW to the north on Friday.
W'ly winds across the central and northern atolls next week, SE to the south.
Comments
Latest notes are live.
Didn’t wanna put a size on the large swell for late next week yet Craig?
Nah too far out and fluid for me right now. Probably 8ft peak for the first swell.
Yeah thought that might be the case. Lets see if the models are aligning any better come Thursday's update. Kinda weird that GFS was bullish early, then backed off and now EC has taken the bullish lead whilst GFS takes a somewhat back seat. It's like one has passed the batten to the other.
This ones for you Don ....
Bit too big and breaking wide off the reef eh?
udo And Craig you most likely know this but from what ive seen deserts over 8 foot really actually needs a high tide to handle.unlike 2-6 foot days where lowtides are needed for it to pit.
How fast was he going!!
Nias Pro Sept 11th - 17th ...
Wow, good with sound up
Leaving for the Ments tonight,
Doesn’t seem the models have picked up on that ‘moderate sized pulse of S/SW swell for later Monday, easing Tuesday’ but they have backed off a bit on their call for 10-12ft next weekend.
That swell is more from Bali early next week.
Model outputs were and still are double counting multiple swells so it was never going to be 10-12ft. But in saying that that super long period swell forecast for Sat/Sun 16th/17th there will most definitely be some solid and powerful rogue clean up sets in the 6-8ft class IMO.
Aaah thanks Craig
Looking forward to your next updated forecast.
Comparing the same time/date stamp today to yesterday's model (e.g. Thur 14th 12am) and the system appears to have been downgraded significantly?
Yeah then bumps back up Sat 16th
GFS and EC aligning rather well now for that fetch to the NE of Heard Island late next Tuesday.
No update yesterday?
Craig's on leave at the moment. I've been on the road for the last few days and am pretty flat out most of the time but will try our best to cover them while he's gone.
Ulus forey has it 15ft next Saturday. 4m swell @17 seconds. I know there are comments above about models overcooking it but any (brief) update on the swell for the end of next week would be appreciated. Cheers.
Models aren't overcooking it as such, but the outputs are being double counted for the Saturday with multiple swells in the water. So whilst it aint gonna be 15ft based on current forecasts I wouldn't think 8-10ft is out of the question if that fetch forms next Tuesday as currently forecast.
Thanks Don.
Thanks Don. I am also very interested in the swell on the 16/17th. It looks like the following week will also be solid until at least Wednesday.
Models are double counting swells early the week after Sat/Sun 16/17 so it won’t be as big as they’re indicating.
Hey DonWeather may i ask? does earthnullschool use GFS systems? pretty sure surf-forecast.com does ans magic mushroom. just not sure how accurate earth null school is...its been good to me most of the time. i saw skeleton bays few swells coming on nullschool miles off on nullschool.
Any chance for update with Craig still gone? You guys been MiA for two weeks now at tail end of Indo prime season
On another note, GFS has serious looking typhoon formed off Japan same weekend
Not any more :)
The system has downgraded quite a bit after going bonkers yesterday.
EC still looks good.
Looks to peak in that 8-10ft range as Don has said for eastern Indo, 8ft to possibly 10ft to the west.
Beware of those mixing swell trains though. Looks to be biggest Fri/Sat.
Yeah significant downgrade by both models particularly GFS.
you still bullish on 8-10ft craig?
I’m gonna say 8ft sets at exposed magnets around Bali and east of there. EC still a little more bullish than GFS. Not by much.
nice, looks like its gonna start filling in around thurs/fri. fly out early saturday so fingers crossed it fires up before flyout
8-10 ft with Random 12ft Bombs / OutSide Corner..
No tues update?
Craig’s on holidays still I’m imagining.
You all waxed up ready to go Don?
Yep. Packed last night. Fly out tomoz.
Lucky I’m in the ments right now! Can’t wait
Damn impressive looking fetch modelled to setup below South Africa this weekend. If that thing comes off could be one of the longest period swells in sometime to hit Indo the following weekend 23/24 Sept Talking forerunners around 23-25 sec with the peak of the swell in the 18-20 sec band!!!
At 20 secs, touching bottom around 310m water depth by my rough calcs
and at 25 secs, a bit shy of a whopping 500m
don are you flying through KL or jakarta? i leave syd tomorrow as well, heading for the ments.
only real question i have is: are the trade SE winds going to hamper basically all options? iirc most waves like far different winds
ah i may have misread that you are headed to the ments. if you're going to bali i hope you score! if you're going to ments i might see ya on the plane!
Mate got back two weeks ago, had a boatload of swell, nothing under 4' and a few 6'+ days. Only problem was the south winds which pushed all the boats together. At one point there were thirteen boats at Thunders.
Hopefully your captain has made a Maccas booking.
Thirteen boats at Thunders...mint, say 150+ people
oh dear. i had read that thunders is one of the few waves that handles that sorta wind so that doesn't sound great haha. unforch i think we're a bit further north in the ments and macaronis might be a bit outside of our remit.
really great to hear you scored though :)
Ha. My captain was in the water on that thunders day. He continued straight past the 13 boats and surfed a wave to themselves. My guy knows his shit.
Gold
I’m in eBay area been pretty packed maybe 30+ riding 2-3ft Beng Bengs with no where else breaking. Hopefully new swell spreads people out a bit
Flying Goldy KL Padang
I got my week in G-land booked. Pumped.
When?
Ist week in Oct.
Nice. Hope you get some good waves.
was just there a few weeks back, crowd was light
Last minute question whilst packing. Have others successfully carried surfboard fins in their carry on baggage on board a plane or are they classed as a weapon and hence need to be included in checked in baggage (ie board bag)?
Just took them in carry on and was fine with Batik Air
i carried my fins in my carry on with flights recently- Garuda, Qanta, Super Air Jet.
No problems
It’s ground hog day again up here in the Playgrounds, very little to mention on the wave front. Everyone hanging out for the surf to start building tomorrow. The forecast models have been spot on calling the last few days flat spell.
I've always packed them in check in baggage just in case Don
already on the Bukit - will be in the water by late morning tomorrow
Watch out for the learners on the Bukit. Mate got his head split open at Ulus today by a Euro beginner who jumped off his board directly in front of my mate while he was paddling out.
Shit that sounds heavy - will stick to some less crowded breaks where possible
He’s okay and it could have been worse. 4 stitches and hopes to be back in the water tomorrow arvo.
Where’s the best place to get a forecast on the Canggu region? Will be there next week and keen to get a view on conditions
Got back from there yesterday. Surf early. Side shore by 10. Onshore not much later. Wind was light enough most days for an arvo surf. Hope for swell because the surf schools can’t access the main breaks then.
Fugly Nias Comp
https://www.youtube.com/live/t8teas-pOzo?si=6KZEPFMRECO56AEN
Looks like swell has started to kick, decent 1.5 x overhead at ullus right now. Surfline have a very different forecast to here (much smaller), so just contemplating board choice!
Low Tide at First Light Tmoro Morn on a New Swell ~ Gun Up
Reading these comments about the Mentawais, are the days of a Ments trip over?
Yeah being on a boat for a couple weeks with a bunch of mates is epic fun, but the fucken crowds are insane.
If the average punter only has a couple of weeks a year to do an Indo trip to get their fix can you just write off the Ments?
Not necessarily, it's just that persistent south and southeast wind has pushed everyone into a handful of spots. This season has been bad for that, though it was forecast to be that way.
A standard season of doldrum winds will see everyone spread out.
Ok, that makes sense.
An older guy I know from down here, who’s done maybe close to 10 trips, did one earlier this year and said that will be his last as the crowds were out of control. Good chance they had the same south winds
Agree with stu. Just have to carefully consider long term wind forecasts when choosing time/ location
Ulus kicked nicely this arvo according to a mate that’s there.
Did your mate say Water was Cold ?
water has been been cold mate, colder than most dry seasons from memory, its becoming a talking point pretty much wherever you go.. swell kicked nicely late arvo on the bukit real lully but the sets are have some push, see what this morning brings
Should be Plenty there this AM and incoming Tide
I heard yesterday was real cold.
mate it was. surfed late arvo session and was struggling early as the lulls were 5-10mins got prerty consistent late arvo sets rollin in which made it easier its probably perpective i surf back home in a springy all winter so mind games cold and this part of the world is a head fuck at times
what wetty would you need Hazcam?
i reckon youd be fine in a 1.5/2mm long sleeve top and boardies, ive seen crew in springys and also short arm steamers, a couple eurokooks in full steamers haha, however at this point that doesnt look out of place atm. if my trip extends im gonna get out of the vest and go get a jacket as getting a bit long in the tooth now
cheers mate.
I was wearing a tube suit end of Aug on Bali and islands East. Sitting around is the chilly bit
2 x DS in your G-Land Boardbag Freeride ?
Most likely Udo.
see how it looks the day before I go.
I've always found g-land pretty cold compared to Bali. Not sure if that means g-land is cooler than normal at the moment.
Just saw some shots from my mate on the Bukit. Firing this morning.
And a Swell rise at Lagundri for the Comp ...Devil Wind
Udo - short arm steamer back home not springy lol
Yeah he did Udo. Noticeably colder than normal apparently.
Bathtub water in the ments beauuuutiful
Few Waves on Cam ATM.. Fishing boats a Plenty
DJ Dancing in Foreground
Report from this morning was "bigger than 6ft" at one of the reefs down from Ulus. Must be a bombie and OC day at Ulus.
Some solid 4-6ft sets at Beng Beng’s today. Intense barrels nearby!
Great wave at that size.
The spot nearby - the hollow left?
That’s the one!!
Beautiful morning on the Bukit.
Last set at Ulu easily 8 - 10 ft ...Huge playing field seriously Heavy Water
hazcam you there ?
yep, udo, still here mate, extended me trip. Been surfing impossibles since early friday mainly and abit of bingin/balangan, plenty of wash thrus impossibles, with the reefs struggling holding up to the sets. however midsize sets had decent enough shape and stood up nice; coudlnt find any exit and havent seen many bazzas made. Overall real straight with a lotta sets marching in wide, 100m+ long closeouts... Yesterday was probably the pick for mine, today was a bit of cat and mouse but all time conditions. went up ulus this morning had a good look, shitloads of water moving, again plenty of washthrus, the 15 mins i had eyes on it didnt see one paddle, crew up near temples stepping off. Ulus definietly in that size bracket, balangan too. 6-8 everywhere else with the odd + size clean up. I seen crew get some good ones at ulus tho so im sure it was pumping no doubt.
Should be good this afternoon/low tide session.
Any of you surf forecasting gurus have a forecast for Maldives from the 24th.
Some Big Waves being Towed out Ulu ATM..
Any paddlers ?
Yep a few had a go but not way out on the Bombie that i could see.
SurflineGPT only under-cooked the forecast by about 6ft
Terrible forecast
https://www.baliwaves.com/2023/09/bali-surf-weather-report-15th-16th-sep...
How the hell do people navigate the cave on higher tides when it’s that size? I’ve surfed Ulus quite a bit (although never really big) but had a day last year when it was only about 4-5ft but a really big high tide with the water rushing all the way to the bottom of the cave.
Was a nightmare getting in and out. Lots of crew getting ping ponged. Dangerous with the whitewater going everywhere.
Yeah it’s sketchy getting back in with the big tides and over 2 meters of swell
When I've surfed it big I've just ended up staying out until the tide is low enough. A couple of times I ended up on the beach with the shipwreck and had to wait an hour or more before I could slip through the holes in the caves haha. I honestly get more anxious paddling back in to shore than I do paddling out once it's 8 foot.
~ Finals Day ~ Smoking..
https://www.youtube.com/live/toGcPh0fq9w?si=MDItfJRr9PJPDe5Z
Beng bengs area around 4ft still super fun
Sounds like I probably surfed with you. We surfed there Sat.
Probably! I’ll be out pitstops in the mornings if you’re around
Hows Nias conditions for Comp... WoW
Girls are Ripping
Pumping for the finals at Nias right now.
Here's the live vision. Rio Waida on a tear
Not a lot of chatter about this impending large swell?
JBay closing out and South Africa zig zag claiming “biggest ever seen” on their east coast.
Hopefully we get an updated indo report today for those of us getting on a plane???
Where are you heading to ?
Headed to ments Friday
Jeez you might be having an extra Night or two Stay in Padang
https://www.perfectwavetravel.com/magazine/maldives/maldives-surf-report... Maldives has been stormy for last week but cleaned up yesterday and got really good.
Thanks, I get there 24th at night so think im missing the main part of the swell. Fingers crossed the swells a day or two late.
Any chance of a new forecaster notes for upcoming period please Craig and Ben? Love ya work fellas :)
Craig’s on the money!
Come on boys were due an update- over two weeks!
Mate I also use Surfline they’re pretty good thus far and you get surf cam .., not that expensive either. It’s not perfect but can help when it comes to deciding on boards to take and when to book tickets.
kuta will be good no doubt an empty salt and vinager samboy chips pkt will be on your head after first duckdive, stk standard for there. ulus will be a couple of garrys. nusa dua will be big with a sweep and the western deli in seminyak will be the go to for after surf munch. MLD. ( not a bad report for someone who has not been there in 20 years)
Hehe piggy
Relax...or Pay up for a Traveller forecast..
3-8ft with Favorable Winds 7- 15 sec Period
nothing doin. good kick late arvo yesty tho.
This weekend
Go hard Joey Keough
Saw some 8ft death slabs in ments today, probs 10ft+ on magnets. Smaller yesterday but hella powerful with the huge period
Indeed there is. Solid as Fck today. Coupla boys on my boat attempted a solo 8ft wave down south. Got one massive set on the head and came in with tail between their legs. They reckon the kegs were that wide you could drive a car through them.
Wow sounds crazy similar to my experience. Any injuries?
Yep. Fin chop between toes required stitches for one guy and captain had to stitch his own cut up foot also.
kandui was 8 feet today. only a handful trying it. baby kandui was 6 and way too quick. peaks this arvo, no?
Back on board today. How did those other swells go a fortnight ago?
On cue mate. The models were also pretty spot on give or take a little.
Nice!
Sorry if I missed the memo, but are we still doing Forecaster Notes for Indo, or no? If not, no problem, just keen to get Craig's opinion on timing/direction of possible October ~5th swell. Still 8-10 days out, so plenty of error term, but looks promising.
I'll have one in the coming hour or so.
Thanks Craig - much appreciated for my Bali trip tomorrow!
Thats the "Freeride Voice G.Land" Swell Forecast
Packing Desert Storms now.
Forecast looks good, 8ft or so, but the model is mixing swells. Four of them, each one about 2ft. Pack a groveller.
Looks like it's been pumping there recently. Lots of very good days at MT and the odd sesh at Speedies.
Helmet Freeride ?
I don't have one.
I have a brand new never used still in package DMC soft surf helmet if you’d like it Steve.
Yes please.
Can you contact me through Ben plz Don.
That'd be awesome.
Have emailed Ben asking him to forward my email address to you Steve. When do you leave?
Sun- flying out of Coolie at 5pm
Virgin flight ..great time to leave eh.